UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Whoa don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's "free $" or a "lock". I'm just saying it's the best bet on this fight imo. It's -165, not -350. I think at the current price it's a steal. I think this hits the cards 70% or more of the time. So yeah, while it makes -165 a great bet imo, it still leaves 25-30% chance it loses maybe.

I'm on it for 2.1u at -140, don't really want to go any bigger but you may have just convinced me lol

 

[null]

Most of my bankroll is dollars, but I'm loving the uptick in the price of Bitcoin. I purchased earlier this year at $447 and the value today is more than double at $905.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Most of my bankroll is dollars, but I'm loving the uptick in the price of Bitcoin. I purchased earlier this year at $447 and the value today is more than double at $905.

Sounds like I need to start keeping a % of my BR as bitcoin

 

[mkess101]

I'm on it for 2.1u at -140, don't really want to go any bigger but you may have just convinced me lol

I don't know what a "big" bet is for you in terms of units. 2.1 for me is significant, but not "huge". I think this over is one of the better bets on the card personally. That said, when I bet overs like this I usually hold some back to be a little more aggressive and bet FGD at a bit less juice.

So I'm 1.55u on it at -155 but I'm planning on another 1.5u or so for FGD at probably -130 or something.

 

[mkess101]

Sounds like I need to start keeping a % of my BR as bitcoin

LOL sounds like you'd be "buying high" if you do it now though. Wait for a dip buddy!

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I don't know what a "big" bet is for you in terms of units. 2.1 for me is significant, but not "huge". I think this over is one of the better bets on the card personally. That said, when I bet overs like this I usually hold some back to be a little more aggressive and bet FGD at a bit less juice.

So I'm 1.55u on it at -155 but I'm planning on another 1.5u or so for FGD at probably -130 or something.

My typical max bet is 5u, saved for the most confident picks. Standard bet is between .5 and 2u. I guess 2.1 is plenty for me on that play especially considering the nice price I got. And I'm with you on those distance lines, I don't feel like looking up stats right now but I'd guess maybe 80-90% of 3 rd fights that go O2.5 end up seeing scorecards. I could be way off of course...

LOL sounds like you'd be "buying high" if you do it now though. Wait for a dip buddy!

That goes without saying friend!

 

[mkess101]

My typical max bet is 5u, saved for the most confident picks. Standard bet is between .5 and 2u. I guess 2.1 is plenty for me on that play especially considering the nice price I got. And I'm with you on those distance lines, I don't feel like looking up stats right now but I'd guess maybe 80-90% of 3 rd fights that go O2.5 end up seeing scorecards. I could be way off of course...



That goes without saying friend!

I am guessing you are right about fights going distance. Of course at your price of -140 it's probably about what FGD will be anyway on this one.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I don't like what I'm hearing from Hendricks at all here. Taking Magny at pick em odds.

There's def room for improvement with Magny but I think he does a decent job of using his reach to aid his distance control in a Jones-esque way (different leagues of course.) I'd be pretty surprised if Johny could get inside on him and put him out, especially at this stage with all these variables discussed. I think if Johny tries to wrestlefuck he'll get worn out by Magny's grappling and eventually get his back taken. I just can't see Hendricks doing to Magny what he did to Brown, Magny is a way better wrestler and grappler than Brown.

 

[null]

I like Magny a lot too at pick 'em odds. Big Rigg will be lucky to even make weight. Would not be surprised to see him retire after this when he loses to Magny.

 

[HumbleCoco]

Absolutely love this man's channel, fantastic analysis.

 

[Tebowned]

@Sham5916910 @piglord

You guys still on Saff? I like the over like everyone else of course but...

Now that he's @ +120, I think I'll bet a little.

Reasoning:
This will be his 3rd fight in 2016 and 3rd fight at Tristar.
It's also his 3rd camp with a real strength and conditioning program supposedly.
Before that he trained a lot with greco roman beast Dan Hendo.
He's lost to Rory and Story in the last 5 years

His striking is pretty crisp. He can fight southpaw so he can hit outside leg kicks against the southpaw kim.
His boxing is not as impressive but he does have nice check hooks that should keep kim honest.
His TDD is so good and when he gets taken down he's right up.

In his last fight he had a huge cut on his left knee that was glued shut and it appears to have prevented him from throwing it and maybe even training properly.
Story is also a power house in the clinch and even out clinched Johny Hendricks.
DHK is a judo chop master but he's not as physical as story imo.

Also something to keep in mind and correct me if I'm wrong but DHK has been out for a year and only had a 6 week training camp as he's a replacement for Matt Brown.



I'm on Saff as a dog and pretty small. I can see him getting suffocated in the clinch but I think it's a lot less likely than some suggest.


For the lawls:

Last time he fought a Korean Judoka he lost albeit controversial.

 

[HumbleCoco]

I've been doing some tape watching on Magny and Hendricks. What I see is that the old Hendricks still exists, it's just been against the new breed of more effective competition - Gastelum and Wonderboy have made him look damn right awful. Gastelum took his soul with combinations, and Wonderboy via distance management. I question whether Magny has any particular skillset that he can use to shut down Hendricks completely. Magny has good control of distance and attacking off angles but they're usually just a straight punch, rarely in combination unless there's a clear reaction. I still have faith in Hendrick's wrestling to prevent takedowns unless he's already taken himself out of the fight, if it does hit the ground I do like Magny's wirey limbs and his control of opponents on the ground, even if he rarely works into a submission.

A part of me sees this as a real opportunity for Hendricks, whilst Magny poses questions, they aren't riddles - but there's not enough juice to the squeeze in taking the risk on Hendrick's. I think Magny by decision could be the bet, with him content in a gameplan to frustrate the easily frustrated Hendricks, picking him off from the outside. Yet, I'll still be interested to see the odds on Hendricks by KO but realistically the bookmakers are still going to be painting the picture of Hendricks pre-gsp, rather than post-usada...

 

[mkess101]

I've been doing some tape watching on Magny and Hendricks. What I see is that the old Hendricks still exists, it's just been against the new breed of more effective competition - Gastelum and Wonderboy have made him look damn right awful. Gastelum took his soul with combinations, and Wonderboy via distance management. I question whether Magny has any particular skillset that he can use to shut down Hendricks completely. Magny has good control of distance and attacking off angles but they're usually just a straight punch, rarely in combination unless there's a clear reaction. I still have faith in Hendrick's wrestling to prevent takedowns unless he's already taken himself out of the fight, if it does hit the ground I do like Magny's wirey limbs and his control of opponents on the ground, even if he rarely works into a submission.

A part of me sees this as a real opportunity for Hendricks, whilst Magny poses questions, they aren't riddles - but there's not enough juice to the squeeze in taking the risk on Hendrick's. I think Magny by decision could be the bet, with him content in a gameplan to frustrate the easily frustrated Hendricks, picking him off from the outside. Yet, I'll still be interested to see the odds on Hendricks by KO but realistically the bookmakers are still going to be painting the picture of Hendricks pre-gsp, rather than post-usada...

After rewatching Hendricks/Kelvin, I disagree that Kelvin "took his soul". Johnny was actually more competitive in that fight than what I think the general consensus is in how everyone remembers it. Kelvin won, he deserved it, but it was hardly a blowout. Sig strikes were close, Johnny probably won a round (or at least could have).

I still like Magny but Hendricks didn't look THAT bad vs Kelvin at all. Wonderboy...well... yeah. But that said Wonderboy's striking can do that to almost anyone on a given night.

 

[lefontes]

Cigano talk yesterday in here Brazil that hes ready if Cain not fight. Against Werdum is personal.

OMG

 

[HumbleCoco]

After rewatching Hendricks/Kelvin, I disagree that Kelvin "took his soul". Johnny was actually more competitive in that fight than what I think the general consensus is in how everyone remembers it. Kelvin won, he deserved it, but it was hardly a blowout. Sig strikes were close, Johnny probably won a round (or at least could have).

I still like Magny but Hendricks didn't look THAT bad vs Kelvin at all. Wonderboy...well... yeah. But that said Wonderboy's striking can do that to almost anyone on a given night.

You're 100% right, I'm being a bit hyperbolic for the Gastelum fight. But his combos from the first round did put Hendricks on the back step significantly, he looked like the Hendricks we've grown accustomed to, rather than the one we used to fear. What you say is generally what I'm pointing out in the breakdown, Hendricks is still a tough out and requires more than the everyday run of the mill fighter to be beaten handily (even Gastelum was still at risk in moments of the fight).

We have to question whether Magny has a game that can make Hendricks lose. I see this being a really close contest and a great opportunity for Hendricks to save himself with a much needed win. Can you be confident in that though? Probably not, but I'm very weary of people going deep in on Magny just because other amazing fighters have beaten Hendricks. Again a bit like the Ronda fight, I think the narrative is getting in the way of the actual match up.

I should also say that as this stage I'm not set on any bets, and I probably won't be until the days before the event.

 

[Sham5916910]

Cigano talk yesterday in here Brazil that hes ready if Cain not fight. Against Werdum is personal.

OMG

Id hammer jds

 

[Sham5916910]

@Sham5916910 @piglord

You guys still on Saff? I like the over like everyone else of course but...

Now that he's @ +120, I think I'll bet a little.

Reasoning:
This will be his 3rd fight in 2016 and 3rd fight at Tristar.
It's also his 3rd camp with a real strength and conditioning program supposedly.
Before that he trained a lot with greco roman beast Dan Hendo.
He's lost to Rory and Story in the last 5 years

His striking is pretty crisp. He can fight southpaw so he can hit outside leg kicks against the southpaw kim.
His boxing is not as impressive but he does have nice check hooks that should keep kim honest.
His TDD is so good and when he gets taken down he's right up.

In his last fight he had a huge cut on his left knee that was glued shut and it appears to have prevented him from throwing it and maybe even training properly.
Story is also a power house in the clinch and even out clinched Johny Hendricks.
DHK is a judo chop master but he's not as physical as story imo.

Also something to keep in mind and correct me if I'm wrong but DHK has been out for a year and only had a 6 week training camp as he's a replacement for Matt Brown.



I'm on Saff as a dog and pretty small. I can see him getting suffocated in the clinch but I think it's a lot less likely than some suggest.


For the lawls:

Last time he fought a Korean Judoka he lost albeit controversial.

I jumped the gun. really need to watch tape on stun gun can only remember the hathaway fight of his really. I will watch tape but you make excellent points. Im big on means so any action now will be long shot parlays or prop plays but saff dec will be interesting. Its pretty similar to the means fight tho in that if cowboy and stun gun win its most likely from wall n stall. I prefer means tho cos hes more of a finisher and has shown good ability to circle out the clinch against a similar fighter in magny.

 

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[Dragons Roar]

Long time lurker Bobby brown has no idea what is being talked about by thinking he may be Brick Top/robbie dawg?

Whatever dude. So blatantly obvious it's unreal welcome back anyway. Behave this time please