UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Kowboy Karl]

We can talk all we want, but this should be a sign of something...

Conor is off ufc 200

 

[EzFlyer]

Anyone think Lineker can win 2/3 rounds by constantly advancing/throwing volume? He has a very judge friendly style and I see this fight taking place almost exclusively on the feet.

Thinking about biting at +200

for sure.

 

[PuertoRican]

http://terezowens.com/ronda-rousey-lost-a-baby-and-decided-on-a-return-to-fighting/

We First told you Ronda Rousey was preggers with boyfriend Travis Browne’s baby. Now comes rumors that she lost it and that fueled the comeback? Lets hope these are just rumors but my source is credible. Regardless we are excited to see her back in the octagon eve if under bad circumstances. -TO

Bad circumstances is something Ronda Rousey is gonna have to deal with.

Amanda Nunes is gonna knock that snarky actress into a fetal position and rip the life out of her.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Rewatched Smolka vs Nguyen on lunch. Idk what to make of this fight. lol @ Smolka trying a head arm throw right away though. If Borg decision is juicy I might have to stab that and hope he can control Louis. Also liking the over after watching that fight again. Borg isn't going to finish anywhere, and Smolka subbing Borg or smashing his face in through transitions seems unlikely.

 

[Card]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-207-betting-odds/

Lineker has fight changing power every time he throws a combination, but is yet to face a striker who offers the depth of skill that Dillashaw brings to the cage. The Brazilian can take some of Dillashaw’s options away by pressuring, but needs to continue his trend of doing so less recklessly. A case could easily be made that John Dodson was able to beat him almost exclusively by countering, but Dillashaw requires more of the initiative to truly implement his game. As long as Lineker can figure out Dillashaw’s movement early and cut off the cage, he can win this fight. If he’s stuck in chase-mode all fight he’s going to drop a wide decision. I think I’m actually leaning towards Lineker to continue his run, but I’m hoping the price gets better before I make a play.

Johny Hendricks has little bursts where he looks like the welterweight champion he once was, but they are too few and far between at this point. He’s unable to really string a performance together across 15 minutes, and that’s exactly what Neil Magny is going to do to him. Magny’s range striking will keep Hendricks at bay, and his length in the clinch provides him with such leverage that he may even surprise Hendricks with his wrestling. The great equalizer here is Hendricks’ power, which could see him score a stoppage at any point, but I have to side with the fighter who will do more across three rounds. However, if Hendricks shows up in championship form he can outwrestle Magny for 15 minutes, I just think those days are past.

Speaking of doing more, I think Dong Hyun Kim outworks Tarec Saffiedine regardless of which version of him shows up. We’ve seen ultra aggressive striker Kim and traditional grappler Kim of late, and I think either one can take advantage of Saffiedine’s biggest weakness, a lack of activity. Striking with Saffiedine would be the more dangerous of the two options for Kim, but may actually be the easier route given Saffiedine’s stout takedown defense which could cause Kim to tire later if he struggles for too long against the cage. I’ll take Kim by decision, but there’s just enough to keep me away from a bet.

If Alex Garcia can’t get rid of Mike Pyle early, he could be in some trouble here. Pyle is the cleaner striker, and nearly everyone has a volume advantage against Garcia in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Even if Garcia can score takedowns, Pyle is active and dangerous enough from his back that he’ll still be dictating the fight later on. The round 1 prop for Garcia will be very interesting given his power and Pyle’s chin and age. That can even be used as a hedge against Pyle moneyline if you’re so inclined. The big concern here for Pyle backers is that age, and when his drastic physical decline starts.

I’m still not sure how much I want to take away from Louis Smolka’s loss to Brandon Moreno, so I’ve basically discarded it from my thoughts for this fight. Smolka is one of the few fighters who will be willing to grapple with Ray Borg here, and that could be his undoing. Borg has struggled against some of the bigger flyweights on the roster, and while Smolka is certainly much taller and longer, I don’t consider him particularly big and strong for the division. It could turn out that I’m wrong and Smolka’s combination of length and ground skills are simply too much for Borg, but I think this fight has a slight edge to Borg if it turns into a grappling match, while Smolka has a sizable advantage on the feet. If the number creeps up towards +200 I’ll definitely play Borg, and even around +150 it could be worth a shot.

If Alex Oliveira was a natural welterweight, I’d like his chances a lot better here. He’s normally well-rounded and smart enough to capitalize on his opponent’s weakest areas, but even though Tim Means’ weakness is clearly his defensive wrestling it may be difficult for Oliveira to exploit. Granted, Means was taken down multiple times by both John Howard and Sabah Homasi in his recent bouts, but both of those men are actual welterweights. Perhaps size doesn’t turn out to be an issue here and Oliveira rolls to a decision, but I’m just not willing to take the shot unless the price gets much bigger.

Marvin Vettori has been on a nice run of late and looked better than expected in his UFC debut. Antonio Carlos Junior on the other hand has been disappointing for much of his UFC run, but seemed to make some improvements in his last outing. Skill-wise, Shoeface is the better fighter, especially since Vettori likes to grapple a fair amount. Shoeface is also significantly bigger, which should help him control the wrestling unless he reverts back to the terrible cardio he showed against Dan Kelly. While Vettori is three years younger, Carlos Junior is still more than young enough to correct the early career issues he’s shown, and I think his ceiling is still decently high. I’m picking him here, and will jump on a dog price.

In a matchup between two welterweights who like to strike, I don’t see any reason not to side with the guy who is bigger, more technical, seems to have more power, and certainly has faced the better competition. Despite all of that, I’m still not putting my money on Brandon Thatch in this one.

 

[Card]

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I'm expecting TJ to hold the center much better than Dodson and I definitely expect him to shoot on Lineker at points in this fight. I just see Lineker as a puzzle too easy to solve for someone of TJ's calibur to lose to. TJ decision will be my biggest play of the card

My dude

 

[Card]

Ronda and Travis were in this gym all through the summer and this month, Edmond is working on the striking, Nunes doesn't have the a shot in matching her training partners, Ronda doesn't change alot of her camp, just sharpening

 

[Card]

I'm been training for Ronda since I got in the UFC, every camp I train alittle bit for Ronda, my whole career I've been training for her, when Ronda tries to judo throw me, she'll have a surprise, you will never forgot about me, after this fight, i will prove that I'm the best

 

[EzFlyer]

How are people betting Dillashaw -245 when o2.5 is as till as low as -156?

He's not finishing lineker, imo... Laying way too much juice..

Or a better way to look at it: lineker winning o2.5 is more likely than Dillashaw winning u2.5. hope that makes sense.

 

[Card]

Missing weight was my fault, my body didn't want to get rid of it, I should have kept trying at night instead of the morning, it's difficult to make weight at 8am in the morning, everything is a learning curve, I'm under 200 and I still have 10 weeks, I want to be 10 pounds over this time, I have to be happy, my wife with 4 kids, my wife is running around with her head cut off, I have to be selfish, I have to train, last two fights, I was only working out once a day, back to two a days, back to Oklahoma state, If I have another fight like my last two, I'm done, I was just going through the motions, I was satisfied with being ex champ, top 10, now I'm not satisfied anymore, If I don't pull the trigger, I'm done, i don't want to be gone from my wife, getting punched in the face, I still believe I can win a championship, now I'm waking up sore, I want to make a 180', I just opened up a gym with a friend where I live, I teach wrestling, I looked like crap, I question myself, I'm not fighting the way I can, If I can't, then I'll say I tried it, and the good lord has something else in mind for me, I'll train kids, I fought Condit, he was tall, I used angles on Thompson, constantly move, Thompson got me flustered, I have to use my footwork, my explosiveness, my wife might tell me to be home and I'll say ok, I'm only taking it one fight at a time, I'm going back to the old ways, let my left hand go, make people fear my hand again

 

[Sham5916910]

I think tj wins but +200 i will take my chances with lineker. Yes tj can shoot under linekers punches but hes gotta get down low cos lineker is a legit dwarf. Lineker also throws wide body shots hard and often to try and cut you off and trap you. Gonna be real hard to shoot under those shots. If i was lineker id use the body shots to try and cut tj off and once cornered and against the cage let the hands go upstairs.

 

[EzFlyer]

I think tj wins but +200 i will take my chances with lineker. Yes tj can shoot under linekers punches but hes gotta get down low cos lineker is a legit dwarf. Lineker also throws wide body shots hard and often to try and cut you off and trap you. Gonna be real hard to shoot under those shots. If i was lineker id use the body shots to try and cut tj off and once cornered and against the cage let the hands go upstairs.

i'm on both lineker and o2.5. more on o2.5. could definitely win both. hard to lose both. i'll be shocked if TJ comes out and finishes lineker U2.5. i'll take that risk.

 

[EzFlyer]

people see the 3 sub losses on lineker's record.. two of those 3 were in 2009, he was 19 years old. he's such a different fighter now.

 

[SBJJ]

How are people betting Dillashaw -245 when o2.5 is as till as low as -156?

He's not finishing lineker, imo... Laying way too much juice..

Or a better way to look at it: lineker winning o2.5 is more likely than Dillashaw winning u2.5. hope that makes sense.

Exactly.

And I'm hitting the Dom over instead of Dom ML

 

[Jack Scrapper]

robbiedawg/Brick Top was 12thman/MMAbettingtips.

 

[usernamee]

I just want to say I appreciate all you guys putting forth your thoughts on upcoming fights. Never seen this part of the forum until not very long ago and this has really drawn me into betting more seriously again. I love when you guys are arguing back and forth and laying out your points. I have no idea why I enjoy sportsbetting so much, my big bro set me up with an account when I was about 17
and now 10 years later I'm still at it. It's such a learning experience and you have to be so God damn open with yourself. If you want to fuck up your mind when it comes to betting or making any kind of decisions I really recommend "Thinking, fast and slow" Great book tho!

 

[cCrown]

I can see a scenario where the dillashaw/lineker fight goes down very similarly to the dodson fight. Lineker is just so willing to engage and eat a couple to land one. If lineker hits tj early and tj feels the power that could make him hesitant and we get a situation where tj is on the backfoot the majority of the fight and like some people already mentioned lineker has a judge friendly style that could get him a couple of rounds.

 

[Card]

I got what I wanted against Scoggins, I got tested, I learned alot, I lighted a fire, matured me alot, sticking to gameplan, learned to stay calm, not get frustrated, he was stronger, had get TDD, since Feb, trying to control my eating, not blowing up in between fights, I switched camps, that's a big transition, I train at Jackson's MMA now, it's been great, my striking will be alot different, not a great matchup for smolka, I like tall lanky guys, his style plays right into mine, there's so many looks at Jackson's, best coaches, I'm too fast, too strong, will submit him in the second

 

[EzFlyer]

Exactly.

And I'm hitting the Dom over instead of Dom ML

thinking the same thing on that fight.