UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Sham5916910]

robbiedawg/Brick Top was 12thman/MMAbettingtips.

You know what i actually thought this the other day. Would not be surprised had the same tunnel vision.

 

[Sham5916910]

Never knew borg is now at jacksons

 

[Ukram]

robbiedawg/Brick Top was 12thman/MMAbettingtips.

 

[Ukram]

Strange to hear smolka say he thought moreno was a striker and only saw one HL reel tuf vid....

Gregs should be able to fine tune borg better here, will be live betting that fight though.

Can Linekar catch tj though ? tj is going to be constantly on the move, even more in a 3 rounder here. If Linekar can land that low often in r1 he could slow him right down, good point earlier about linkear being judge friendly, they always like guys that push forward trying to end the fight. That linekar decision prop could be worth a shot.

 

[cCrown]

Lineker up to +210. Looks like they're not listening to you Ez . Tj even down to -250

 

[Oblivian]

robbiedawg/Brick Top was 12thman/MMAbettingtips.

No chance in hell.

 

[Stunna77]

Lineker throwing with power makes it easier to change levels for a TD. With Lineker's style of throwing wild punches I anticipate TJ can easily slip and counter him hard. TJ and Bang train boxing so much that I think they can find an easy path to victory either with takedowns or with just boxing. I think Lineker has a punchers chance for a KO otherwise he is gonna lose.

I also strongly favour Cruz Garbrandt is gonna have similar problems that TJ had in that TJ kept trying to hit Cruz hard instead of just touching him. If Garbrandt tries to hit hard he will allow Cruz enough time to get outta the way. I doubt "No Love" is savvy enough to change up his game plan to one that will work against Cruz. He will likely just go for the KO per usual and struggle with Cruz's style.

Between the two fights if I had to pick a dog I would pick Lineker to find TJ's chin before "No Love" could crack Cruz.

I meant he will have to time them well to avoid getting clipped by a power shot on the way in. I agree throwing power shots, mainly hooks, makes it easier to shoot, however Linker is like 5'3 so it will be harder to duck under. I certainly favor TJ, but at +200 I will probably put a unit on Lineker.

I also agree with Garbrandt having to not load up and just try to put hands on dom, but yeah not really his style. Probably play Dom decision, but small as I hope Cody puts him to sleep

 

[Tebowned]

I got what I wanted against Scoggins, I got tested, I learned alot, I lighted a fire, matured me alot, sticking to gameplan, learned to stay calm, not get frustrated, he was stronger, had get TDD, since Feb, trying to control my eating, not blowing up in between fights, I switched camps, that's a big transition, I train at Jackson's MMA now, it's been great, my striking will be alot different, not a great matchup for smolka, I like tall lanky guys, his style plays right into mine, there's so many looks at Jackson's, best coaches, I'm too fast, too strong, will submit him in the second

ADded more on Borg. He's from New Mexico and I wished he went to jacksons as his camp/ coaches didn't seem high level.

 

[Officer_Brown]

fuck this if johny is speaking the truth and he is truly training twice a day now then he should easily dismantle magny. If hendricks looks okay at the weigh in ill smash him i dont care. magny hasnt got anything besides durability, decent wrestling and reach. not saying he is a bad fighter though. when he beat gastelum i remember gastelum had huge motivation problems at the time. funny but hendricks is my most confident pick of all pickem fights.

 

[Stunna77]

I think tj wins but +200 i will take my chances with lineker. Yes tj can shoot under linekers punches but hes gotta get down low cos lineker is a legit dwarf. Lineker also throws wide body shots hard and often to try and cut you off and trap you. Gonna be real hard to shoot under those shots. If i was lineker id use the body shots to try and cut tj off and once cornered and against the cage let the hands go upstairs.

Just read this after I posted a reply to LemonZest, but essentially the same thoughts as I had. Also think TJ has fallen in love with his striking, which I do not blame him as it is awesome, but I really don't think he will wrestle all that much/have great success if he tries to. I think Dillashaw dec is probably most likely, but Ill take a shot at +200 as linker can also win a dec and is the only one I see possibly finishing.

 

[Polarize]

I didn't read the whole thread and don't know what do you think about Vettori vs Carlos Jr but I like Carlos -138. Carlos is bigger (won the TUF brasil HW), taller, 4+reach. BJJ champion too, decent stand up. Terrible style match up for Vettori, from what I have seen he is a very agressive grappler, good guillotine choke (finished Uda and Araujo). Not much info about Vettori striking (8-0 amateur boxing record), his wrestling is weak imo. His cardio looked terrible 2 years ago, he lost the fight by DEC (He pulled guard and was mounted instantly in R1 lol)

Carlos ML and SUB imo, thoughts?

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I like it though, was planning on hitting it for 2u.

I am betting against both of those guys.

I don't see any way Cruz wins besides a decision so I see no value in his moneyline (plus I actually like Cody at current odds or worse) and I think TJ gets outstruck here. Elevation is the death of TJ imo.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I think people are forgetting just how good Dom's wrestling and grappling are. I know Garbrandt wrestled in high school, but this is by far the least talented grappler he's faced besides arguably Mizugaki. And then when you think about that, his wrestling has won him a lot of the fights despite facing very tough grapplers. I think he's going to have Garbrandt down several times in this fight and Garbrandt will be struggling to get any offense without the risk of the takedowns.

I would be surprised if Cody can't wrestle with his history at TAM.

I also think Cruz is on the wrong side of his career. Don't get me wrong, I've bet him every fight since he's come back but I think there is always the question of how heathy he really is. I'm also not convinced he has fought someone with Cody's power.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

fuck this if johny is speaking the truth and he is truly training twice a day now then he should easily dismantle magny. If hendricks looks okay at the weigh in ill smash him i dont care. magny hasnt got anything besides durability, decent wrestling and reach. not saying he is a bad fighter though. when he beat gastelum i remember gastelum had huge motivation problems at the time. funny but hendricks is my most confident pick of all pickem fights.

Everything I've read on Jonny tells me he's ready to retire. He isn't with a real camp anymore, he's constantly worried about his weight, he looked awful in his last two, he talks about not getting hurt for his family....these are all things that tell me of a fighter trying not to lose which is a huge red flag in my book...

 

[Sham5916910]

I am betting against both of those guys.

I don't see any way Cruz wins besides a decision so I see no value in his moneyline (plus I actually like Cody at current odds or worse) and I think TJ gets outstruck here. Elevation is the death of TJ imo.

Care to expand on Elevation being death of TJ? Keen to hear your thoughts.

 

[waiguoren]

Vettori training at King's MMA with Fabricio Werdum and Kelvin Gastellum.

Werdum says Vettori is future Middleweight champion. Says Vettori trains constantly and kills him in training sometimes.

Gastellum says Vettori is future Middleweight champion in a separate interview.

 

[mkess101]

robbiedawg/Brick Top was 12thman/MMAbettingtips.

12th man advocated huge plays on hug faves almost all the time. Robbie advocated more dogs.

Robbie rubbed a lot of people the wrong way for sure. But he had personality and was funny. 12th man lost boatloads while trying to spam the board with links to his website.

 

[mkess101]

fuck this if johny is speaking the truth and he is truly training twice a day now then he should easily dismantle magny. If hendricks looks okay at the weigh in ill smash him i dont care. magny hasnt got anything besides durability, decent wrestling and reach. not saying he is a bad fighter though. when he beat gastelum i remember gastelum had huge motivation problems at the time. funny but hendricks is my most confident pick of all pickem fights.

Kelvin had "huge motivational" problems? He made weight and only after he lost was there even any mention of it. (Even then it wasn't made to be a big deal).

I'm not saying Johnny can't win or even that he's a terrible bet. Guy is a former champ and IF he can find even some of that (wherever it went) for sure he could handle Magny. I just don't know how anyone could be really confident in him. Even if he makes weight and looks okay, the cloud of USADA coinciding with his decline is there. And the way he's talking it's almost like he's resigned to the fact his best days might be well behind him.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I am betting against both of those guys.

I don't see any way Cruz wins besides a decision so I see no value in his moneyline (plus I actually like Cody at current odds or worse) and I think TJ gets outstruck here. Elevation is the death of TJ imo.

Nonsense, TJ looked top notch against Assuncao

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I got what I wanted against Scoggins, I got tested, I learned alot, I lighted a fire, matured me alot, sticking to gameplan, learned to stay calm, not get frustrated, he was stronger, had get TDD, since Feb, trying to control my eating, not blowing up in between fights, I switched camps, that's a big transition, I train at Jackson's MMA now, it's been great, my striking will be alot different, not a great matchup for smolka, I like tall lanky guys, his style plays right into mine, there's so many looks at Jackson's, best coaches, I'm too fast, too strong, will submit him in the second

Confidence increase Borg