Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 3, 2016.
That's some frightening imagery
Alright... I need your help bitches .. so on my "All faves HM parlay" still kicking and breathing, I just need Khabilov and Cowboy to hit the $6k ... However, I hedged twice last night and need to do so again don't you think? Usually I'm a "anti-hedge" guy because you shouldn't have made the play if you didn't feel it would hit and also you end up giving more back to the book overtime. That said, I never even expected to be in this position. I mean this was basically just to cover any chances that no underdogs would cash last night, which I believed had about a 15% chance of happening given the stylistic matches. Which explains why I made the parlay.
Now here's where I am:
So I hedged on Ngannou and Lewis last night placing 1.5 units on Hamilton and Abdurakhimov respectively. So at the end initial risk of $250 and another 3.00 units hedged thereafter, slow now, the original $250 with only net $6200 if Cowboy and Khabilov if both cash .
Any ideas how I should play this? They are greatly appreciated. I was thinking about putting something on Saggo by decision (+275) and then potentially Matt Brown x knockout (+575) if I get that far. Thanks brother!
I'm leaning Makdessi, yes. Presently I have him via decision and o2.5
Thought about not vannata itd -165, but went with the over instead.
I think vannata , with his style, is gonna slow down in fights. Im aware ferg one was short notice. Well see
Don't let yourself get middled. You said it, yourself
If you are gonna hedge, you probably shouldn't have added the last legs
My honest advice is, unless you have a change of heart on your confidence level of the last two fights, is don't hedge. And I'm saying that being a saggo backer
Or just let it be and hedge if it's on the last leg, if you're committed to doing that. But make it a true hedge, not a prop that could middle you.
^^Yeah I agree with not hedging with props. Feels terrible to get middled.
You should just free roll the entire parlay the other way on brown either break even or triple the original payout lol
Carly Baker better
Yes. Almost have the exact same thoughts as you. Nothing I'd go too big on though. Keep it around $3.88.
Letourneau -129 now. Whats going on, other than the weigh-in trouble? She went 5 rounds with JJ and even kinda gave her a fight.
Basically it comes down to how risk averse you are and what value you think there is on the bets. Earlier hedges doesn't matter since it's a sunk cost.
Right now you win ~6k or whatever if Khabilov and Cerrone hits and you lose 250 if either of them fucks up. You could just freeroll it and put bets on Brown and Skaggo for like 250 each or something which would give you a ~5.5k freeroll, which is probably what I would do.
Only thing I can come up with that might be helpful unless I know more about you and how much important 6k is to you is that you should hedge the first fight first and wait for the outcome on that one before you bet the next fight.
If you have a 40k+ bankroll I think I just skip hedgeing for sure, if it's less then 10k I think I throw like 1k each on the dogs (but obviously Saggo first, and if he loses a 1k on brown) assuming your bankroll is a somewhat reasonably big part of your net worth (as in, it'd hurt a fair bit to go broke).
Assuming decent BR-management and a belief that the hedge lines has no value I would guess that the correct hedge from a math perspective is really small or non-existent. Since you seem to know what you're doing 250 USD is probably not more then a small bet for you so I'd just let it fly.
Another way to do it would be to wait and see what happens in the Khabilov fight and then make a bigger freeroll on the Brown fight, I think he's at like +200 or so which would give you a fairly big guaranteed profit if you put a big bet on him.
All of this are guesstimations taken out of my ass, but I think the general idea is to keep it small unless it's a significant part of your networth and/or puts you in a position of being able to make bigger unit sizes in the future.
Think that's the reason. Weight cut.
You know enough about betting to not need the advice honestly. If it's me, I hedge but I do it small (barring, as EZ mentioned, a change in your view on either fight). I'd probably make a bet on Saggo's ML at + odds for $150-$250 depending on your confidence level in Khabilov. Personally my pick to win the fight would be Khabilov, but only slightly. The value is actually on Saggo imo at +175. Don't mess with the props to try to squeeze a little more out of your hedge. As has been mentioned, you get middled and you will really be pissed. Your hedge here is really just to recoup your initial investment and guarantee no loss imo. Esp if you think Khabilov and Cowboy win. I've already said it, I have a REALLY hard time seeing Cowboy losing here. But anything is possible and if Khabilov wins you put maybe $150 on Brown and call it a day. So if your parlay hits of course you've given back some of the profit, but if it's worth it to you to guarantee at least your initial investment back, hedging a few hundo isn't an awful idea at all.
I feel like when I throw hail mary parlays out there, I try to look ahead of time and see "Okay, if somehow I get to point x and I'm alive, I'll hedge it this way...". Then you don't have to figure it out on the fly. You know your plan going in. Most get broken up before a spot you'd hedge anyway, but the ones that get there you already know what you're gonna do. Even if that means letting the whole thing ride.
I wouldn't want to hedge with props, stick money line, settle for say 4K if the parlay cashes and spread 2k on the opposite fighters.
That's what I'd do anyway lol good luck either way
I would definitely hedge 6k is a lot and if one of them loses you will be kicking yourself for not hedging. You can afford to go little smaller since the dogs have such good odds.
And I agree I have more confidence that saggo could win more so than brown. But you never know.
Yeah just hedge with ML plays one fight at a time. its too much $ not to hedge IMO.
Cowboy fastest sub is +800... why not
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