UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

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also stabbing at romero RD3 +1425 out of sheer principle. his last 4 finishes were rd 3
 
took gastelum sub for a bit, +1255. if he gets your back, it's over.. i know it's not a likely outcome but i was hoping for +1000, so i had to take it

also did a bunch on gastelum NSC +182, he's never been finished.

i'm as impressed with cowboy at 170 as a lot of you are, but i think that's just off
 
carmouche NSC +191 vs chookagian

carmouche is a finisher

chookagian is not.

records prove this, too
 
As a Conor lover, have to say, Alvarez round 4 and 5 at +1675 and +2375 is crazy value. Conor gasses, and if Eddie is down 3 round he will go for broke.
 
NOT natal ITD -191.. wth? he has TWO finishes in FIFTEEN ufc fights. both in rd 3 vs a completely gassed kevin casey who always gets finished late and vs spencer in spencer's debut.

yes, boetsch has been finished several times in the ufc, but mostly by ELITE guys (besides herman? and the injury mid fight a few years ago to costa?) -- and he looked so much improved physically and fought great vs samman last fight

alternatively: boetsch NSC: ... .uh, ok, they didn't even open it.

i'm doing the -191 on not natal itd.
 
gotta like o2.5 -200 on muhammad-good.. or even goes to decision -175... neither guy has ever been stopped.
 
EzFlyer said:
took gastelum sub for a bit, +1255. if he gets your back, it's over.. i know it's not a likely outcome but i was hoping for +1000, so i had to take it

also did a bunch on gastelum NSC +182, he's never been finished.

i'm as impressed with cowboy at 170 as a lot of you are, but i think that's just off
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I like those sub odds you got. +800 now so not a chance I'd touch it.

Don't love the nsc bet. I know Kelvin hasn't been finished but I'd want better these days with how Cowboy seems to hit like a truck. He's made 2 iron chinned guy who had 60 combined pro fights without being stopped by strikes BOTH crumble and get pounded out in back to back fights. I don't think Kelvin's chin is bad at all, might even be amazing. Not sure it matters these days vs Cerrone at 170. He seems to be wrecking even granite chins.

Plus with Kelvin at 170 there's always the weight cutting issue to worry about. I **think** those days are behind him, but the guy likes to eat. I'm wary of ever betting him before he weighs in.
 
Joseph Budden said:
My memory is vague besides that backfist, but iirc Jacare boxed with him in 2 and 3? Could be wrong, maybe he scored a td, but I don't remember him being on top of Yoel much? When someone rewatches hopefully they let us know and help refresh my memory
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Jacare should've won the fight based on a TD that was stopped by a fence grab in the 2nd round (and he clearly won the third, and scored a takedown). I had Jacare winning rounds 2 and 3 anyway...

Also, Romero's wrestling is still incredible. Jacare is just crafty.
 


Fun interview. Ferguson believes johnson is going to pick khabib apart in de stand up (thinks it's crap) and if khabib gets a hold of him he has too much scrambling ability. Of course his opinion comes with a bit of an asterisk considering he lost to michael johnson and he was scheduled to fight khabib before but it was interesting nonetheless.
 
weedreference said:
Just put down a huge bet on McGregor...

Alvarez is going to get massacred on the feet. He will get counter-KOed quickly if he tries to pressure, he will get eaten alive at karate distance if he doesn't. He won't be able to keep McGregor down if he does manage to get him there. I just don't see how he's gonna win other than very close decision. I have full faith in post-wake up call McGregor to take this.

Also hit Romero big. Weidman goes way downhill without the threat of grappling. I'm pretty sure Romero should be the favorite here.
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Wow... I dont like to be on the opposite side of regulars but I strongly disagree with you on both bets.

Eddie-Conor: I think Eddie is the smarter fighter that Conor has faced so far. Alvarez has that "by any means" mentality where he fight to win and nothing else matter. He does not want to put a show, he does not want to be liked, he just does not care. He has the tools to outgrapple Conor and that will be his gameplan.
I think the striking is not going to be remotely close. Conor is just in another level. If Eddie decides to bang he will knocked out silly.
Im going to go with the guy that I know can adapt to his opponent style. Conor has not faced any good wrestler since 8 days notices Chad Mendes and he got layed for almost 10 minutes there by a guy who does not know how you pass the guard. If Eddie manages to take Conor down he is going to punch his face into the mat.
At worst I see this fight as a pickem fight or slightly favor Eddie. At current odds I go with the fucking underground king.

Romero-Weidman: I dislike Weidman. I truly do. Since he beat Silva twice, openly supported Trump and crys about shit all the time.. come on, fuck this guy.
Said that he is an amazing fighter and is just though. Man, he can bite the mouthpiece and go for it. His fight with Machida sold me: He is a warrior.
Romero is stupidly athletic, fast and explosive for a 39 years old guy. But he tends to get inactive and that (IMO) should have cost him the fight against Jacare. On the other hand he is patient enough to wait for an opening and land something big. Did that against Brunson, Kennedy, Machida (he was winning that won tho) and even Jacare in round 1. The thing is... can he land something on Weidman and change the fight? Yes he can, he has good counters. But you gotta think that Chris will be the more active guy and if Romero does not get a finish against a granite chinned guy he is dropping a decision. Said that Weidman is also very dangerous so I think he has plenty more paths to win this one.
I dont know If I would touch Chris at -160 (maybe small for action) but if the odds get slightly better Im going to be all over him for sure.
 
OneWarrior1 said:
Everyone here including me on cerrone, but do you guys like the over? The only finish I see is if Cerrone catches kelvin, but kelvin is durable. The over also covers a kelvin dec in case he wrestlefuck cerrone.
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IDK man... same thing was said about Cote and Story and crazy fucker Cerrone finished both guys. Kelvin is though but when Cowboy smells blood he is one of the best finishers in the UFC.


Johnson-Khabib: Damn I love Khabib and dislike MJ but I have to go with the dog here. Khabib stand up is rudimentary and Johnson has really good hands. I think there is a really good possibility of Khabib literally running into something. He can be reckless some times.
I will be rooting for Nurmagomedov but Johnson is a live dog here.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Wow... I dont like to be on the opposite side of regulars but I strongly disagree with you on both bets.

Eddie-Conor: I think Eddie is the smarter fighter that Conor has faced so far. Alvarez has that "by any means" mentality where he fight to win and nothing else matter. He does not want to put a show, he does not want to be liked, he just does not care. He has the tools to outgrapple Conor and that will be his gameplan.
I think the striking is not going to be remotely close. Conor is just in another level. If Eddie decides to bang he will knocked out silly.
Im going to go with the guy that I know can adapt to his opponent style. Conor has not faced any good wrestler since 8 days notices Chad Mendes and he got layed for almost 10 minutes there by a guy who does not know how you pass the guard. If Eddie manages to take Conor down he is going to punch his face into the mat.
At worst I see this fight as a pickem fight or slightly favor Eddie. At current odds I go with the fucking underground king.

Romero-Weidman: I dislike Weidman. I truly do. Since he beat Silva twice, openly supported Trump and crys about shit all the time.. come on, fuck this guy.
Said that he is an amazing fighter and is just though. Man, he can bite the mouthpiece and go for it. His fight with Machida sold me: He is a warrior.
Romero is stupidly athletic, fast and explosive for a 39 years old guy. But he tends to get inactive and that (IMO) should have cost him the fight against Jacare. On the other hand he is patient enough to wait for an opening and land something big. Did that against Brunson, Kennedy, Machida (he was winning that won tho) and even Jacare in round 1. The thing is... can he land something on Weidman and change the fight? Yes he can, he has good counters. But you gotta think that Chris will be the more active guy and if Romero does not get a finish against a granite chinned guy he is dropping a decision. Said that Weidman is also very dangerous so I think he has plenty more paths to win this one.
I dont know If I would touch Chris at -160 (maybe small for action) but if the odds get slightly better Im going to be all over him for sure.
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I've watched a lot of tape on all four of these guys over the past few days.

Alvarez vs McGregor:

I'm not sure that "smart" is the word I would use to describe Eddie. Other than the Pettis fight, his game plan is pretty much always the same IMO. He takes a ton of damage and gets involved in a lot of firefights. His toughness and ability to recover are by far his best attributes.

I've seen a number of people suggesting that Eddie is going to take Conor down and ground and pound him into oblivion. While it's possible, I just haven't seen any examples of him doing it to anyone in the past. He basically wall and stalled Pettis for 3 rounds. He was unable to keep him down or do any significant damage against the cage or on the ground (he landed three total ground strikes that entire fight). Not to mention he was significantly out struck overall in the fight and looked completely gassed at the end of the 3rd round. Wrestling-wise, Alvarez is not on the level of Chad Mendes. Some of his shots are very sloppy, especially when he's hurt and/or tired, and I think this is going to leave him vulnerable to McGregor's counters.

I think the current line (Conor -150) is just about right. There are still unanswered questions about Conor's takedown defense/ground game. However, I saw some positive signs in the second Nate fight and I think McGregor will be able to keep it standing long enough to hurt Eddie and finish the fight within the first 2 rounds. Eddie gets hit and dropped much too often for my liking when he's facing a guy with power of McGregor.

Weidman vs Romero:

This fight is just so difficult to predict. These guys are just really even matched. With that said Romero is coming off a failed drug test and, like Chris, won't have fought since UFC 194. Weidman look a tremendous amount of damage in the Rockhold fight and is now only 4 months off neck surgery. Right now, I'm looking at Romero NSC at +135 but I'm still undecided.

I would love to hear some other options on these fights before this thread turns into a shit show with nothing but main event talk.
 
t6p said:
I've watched a lot of tape on all four of these guys over the past few days.

Alvarez vs McGregor:

I'm not sure that "smart" is the word I would use to describe Eddie. Other than the Pettis fight, his game plan is pretty much always the same IMO. He takes a ton of damage and gets involved in a lot of firefights. His toughness and ability to recover are by far his best attributes.

I've seen a number of people suggesting that Eddie is going to take Conor down and ground and pound him into oblivion. While it's possible, I just haven't seen any examples of him doing it to anyone in the past. He basically wall and stalled Pettis for 3 rounds. He was unable to keep him down or do any significant damage against the cage or on the ground (he landed three total ground strikes that entire fight). Not to mention he was significantly out struck overall in the fight and looked completely gassed at the end of the 3rd round. Wrestling-wise, Alvarez is not on the level of Chad Mendes. Some of his shots are very sloppy, especially when he's hurt and/or tired, and I think this is going to leave him vulnerable to McGregor's counters.

I think the current line (Conor -150) is just about right. There are still unanswered questions about Conor's takedown defense/ground game. However, I saw some positive signs in the second Nate fight and I think McGregor will be able to keep it standing long enough to hurt Eddie and finish the fight within the first 2 rounds. Eddie gets hit and dropped much too often for my liking when he's facing a guy with power of McGregor.

Weidman vs Romero:

This fight is just so difficult to predict. These guys are just really even matched. With that said Romero is coming off a failed drug test and, like Chris, won't have fought since UFC 194. Weidman look a tremendous amount of damage in the Rockhold fight and is now only 4 months off neck surgery. Right now, I'm looking at Romero NSC at +135 but I'm still undecided.

I would love to hear some other options on these fights before this thread turns into a shit show with nothing but main event talk.
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i wouldnt look too much into the failed romero drug test

http://roidvisor.com/sales-soar-usa...ment-shed-rx-gold-star-contains-illegal-peds/

even if romero was knowingly taking ibutamorin it is an oral ped and not injectable.
 
t6p said:
I've watched a lot of tape on all four of these guys over the past few days.

Alvarez vs McGregor:

I'm not sure that "smart" is the word I would use to describe Eddie. Other than the Pettis fight, his game plan is pretty much always the same IMO. He takes a ton of damage and gets involved in a lot of firefights. His toughness and ability to recover are by far his best attributes.

I've seen a number of people suggesting that Eddie is going to take Conor down and ground and pound him into oblivion. While it's possible, I just haven't seen any examples of him doing it to anyone in the past. He basically wall and stalled Pettis for 3 rounds. He was unable to keep him down or do any significant damage against the cage or on the ground (he landed three total ground strikes that entire fight). Not to mention he was significantly out struck overall in the fight and looked completely gassed at the end of the 3rd round. Wrestling-wise, Alvarez is not on the level of Chad Mendes. Some of his shots are very sloppy, especially when he's hurt and/or tired, and I think this is going to leave him vulnerable to McGregor's counters.

I think the current line (Conor -150) is just about right. There are still unanswered questions about Conor's takedown defense/ground game. However, I saw some positive signs in the second Nate fight and I think McGregor will be able to keep it standing long enough to hurt Eddie and finish the fight within the first 2 rounds. Eddie gets hit and dropped much too often for my liking when he's facing a guy with power of McGregor.

Weidman vs Romero:

This fight is just so difficult to predict. These guys are just really even matched. With that said Romero is coming off a failed drug test and, like Chris, won't have fought since UFC 194. Weidman look a tremendous amount of damage in the Rockhold fight and is now only 4 months off neck surgery. Right now, I'm looking at Romero NSC at +135 but I'm still undecided.

I would love to hear some other options on these fights before this thread turns into a shit show with nothing but main event talk.
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Agree.

Honestly Im fading more Weidman than Romero post USADA.
But I still think that Weidman is better everywhere and the most active/aggressive fighter.
Yoel changes the complexion of a fight in a second but Chris is freaking hard to put away. Maybe Weidman aggressiveness plays into Yoel counter game but I dont think there is a high possibiliy of that. I still think Weidman is going to be the clear winner here.



Have not seen much Edgar-Stephen discussion. The general consensus seems to be that Edgar wins. Honestly I think Frankie may be on the decline. He is turning 35 in a week or two. Aldo just outclassed him worst than in the first fight. But I dont see this fight being the beggining of the end for Edgar.

Stephens has yet to beat an elite fighter. He has lost to every top guy he has faced (Holloway, Swanson, Oliveira). His bests wins are Bermudez (who IMO he was losing 18-20) and Barao (FW debut, arguably a good matchup for him and has not looked good lately).

I think Frankie decision, over 2.5, or even Frankie ML are good for parlays.

Take into consideration that Frankie has been one of the most reliable guys for betting on. Since dropping to FW he has won everyfight he was supposed to win and lost both fight he supposed to lose (I never bought Aldo being on the decline before the rematch).
 
I love O1.5 Boetsch/Natal @ -172. I can easily see this going all 3 rounds so the O1.5 at that price is great IMO.
 
EzFlyer said:
carmouche NSC +191 vs chookagian

carmouche is a finisher

chookagian is not.

records prove this, too
Click to expand...
What the hell? That line is insane.

Edit: just rewatched some tape on both of them and daaamn is this fight gonna suck.
 
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mkess101 said:
I like those sub odds you got. +800 now so not a chance I'd touch it.

Don't love the nsc bet. I know Kelvin hasn't been finished but I'd want better these days with how Cowboy seems to hit like a truck. He's made 2 iron chinned guy who had 60 combined pro fights without being stopped by strikes BOTH crumble and get pounded out in back to back fights. I don't think Kelvin's chin is bad at all, might even be amazing. Not sure it matters these days vs Cerrone at 170. He seems to be wrecking even granite chins.

Plus with Kelvin at 170 there's always the weight cutting issue to worry about. I **think** those days are behind him, but the guy likes to eat. I'm wary of ever betting him before he weighs in.
Click to expand...

I just rewatched Gastelum vs Woodley and man, Kelvin took some bombs in that fight. If Cowboy finishes him that would be ultra impressive.
 
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