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UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

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Nah you only need to worry if you're betting the exact opposite. Like, had you bet NOT Miller by dec then you know you gotta back away from 5d when you're smoking.

The way you did it just means subconsciously you're extra confident in that prop bro. I just bet Miller sub +555 but in honor of your weed induced confidence in Miller dec, I'm gonna hit that a little like you've been hitting the herb.
The-Big-Lebowski-WTF-Gif.gif


Whoa, that was deep man.

But you're right, I love the bet, even at the worse price of +325 (LOVE the +400). Part of smh @ myself for it was because of how under control i've been with my bankroll, but i'm ok with a little extra on this one after killing it this past week
 
Johnson +3.5 +120. LOVE that line. Johnson is my favorite under dog of the card as is. If Nurm has a first round like he did vs Horcher, Johnson could keep this standing at the very least long enough to hit Nurm with enough good shots to win the round.

Hitting that
 
Johnson +3.5 +120. LOVE that line. Johnson is my favorite under dog of the card as is. If Nurm has a first round like he did vs Horcher, Johnson could keep this standing at the very least long enough to hit Nurm with enough good shots to win the round.

Hitting that

Yup on it too. One of my multitude of MJ bets.

My BR management isn't good this week. I'm in deep on this card. I **think** I'm hedged pretty well on most of them but you never know. If things go really oddly (for example, Woodley stops Wonderboy late or wins a dec) I'm gonna take an absolute bludgeoning. On the other hand if I have a good night, I'm gonna have a REALLY good night.
 
Need to stop placing bets after I smoke weed. Just realized I hit Miller dec twice. Only time I ever make such mistakes is when I get high and place bets forgetting what I already have money. Smh.
lol I did that with de Andrade last week and it wound up paying off.
 
Yup on it too. One of my multitude of MJ bets.

My BR management isn't good this week. I'm in deep on this card. I **think** I'm hedged pretty well on most of them but you never know. If things go really oddly (for example, Woodley stops Wonderboy late or wins a dec) I'm gonna take an absolute bludgeoning. On the other hand if I have a good night, I'm gonna have a REALLY good night.
Its a potentially great card for betting. I'm pretty heavy due to value at a lot of angles in these fights myself, that MJ fight definitely included. At +290 I might end up adding even a bit more. I've repped as the east coast as best as I can in this section, hoping the karma comes back to me Sat
 
Rebel Lion has to come in here & show me the goods on how to pick crazy parlays that come true haha
 
Cerrone down to -145 and Conor down to -134 at BetDSI/Bookmaker. Lowest I've seen both lines in a while for anyone looking to bet them.
 
I hate to read into this stuff too much, but with these endless media obligations, the UFC fighters for this Saturday's card have been all over every Fox Sports 1 tv show all day and evening long this week. Eddie looked kind of annoyed to be talking to the Fox Sports Live guys while Conor looked loose and happy to be going back and forth with his opponent this evening.
 
i'm not sure if conor hits as hard above featherweight. i think if nate can weather the storm twice eddie can as well. if conor doesn't get eddie outta there early i can't see him stuffing takedowns consistently. wouldn't be surprised to see eddie get a finish in the later rounds.

this is the worst fight on the entire card to gamble on imo, but obviously i'll still have to throw down on eddie - hopefully freerolling and not chasing!

I think he will at 155 for starters he won't be as drained. Nate has a ridiculous chin and while Alvarez has never been stopped he has been hurt plenty of times. Agree if it goes to r3 Alvarez could take over but i think he gets knocked out in r1 or r2. He struggled with Melendez standing Conor is on another level.
 
Joanna: Now you're talking big shit? I'll show you
Karolina: Lets go, lets go
Joanna: I dont like to talk but I'll show you instead, ill show you

Might have mixed up who said what. but that was the gist.

Source: I'm Polish

She could have said she'll shit on her face and I'd still get a boner
 
Bruh I might have to throw something on Joanna sub @ +1600. Karolina is the first girl she has a ground game advantage over, she already subbed her in the amateurs and she's been drilling subs in Embedded
 
Bruh I might have to throw something on Joanna sub @ +1600. Karolina is the first girl she has a ground game advantage over, she already subbed her in the amateurs and she's been drilling subs in Embedded

I'm huge on JJ but KK has a solid ground game. She dominated Markos who is a solid grappler in r3. She also dominated Rose in r3 on the mat. I really don't know if JJ has a ground advantage and i really doubt this will see the mat. I'm also big on JJ by KO or dec so i am partly biased and I can't fault a play @ +1600 but i'd be very surprised.
 
I'm huge on JJ but KK has a solid ground game. She dominated Markos who is a solid grappler in r3. She also dominated Rose in r3 on the mat. I really don't know if JJ has a ground advantage and i really doubt this will see the mat. I'm also big on JJ by KO or dec so i am partly biased and I can't fault a play @ +1600 but i'd be very surprised.
I don't remember KK ever using a ground game for some reason, I've not even bothered watching tape for this one. 16/1 is an easy hedge anyway just incase but I'll probably just leave it
 
Man a long time since I've came here to post. Super stoked for this weekend's card.

Does anyone else think the line on M.J and Romero are just way too good to not warrant a bet? I know I've always been a bit of a Weidman shitter, but this being 3 rounds just makes me think Romero is gonna edge it. He rarely loses the first round, don't see Chris getting a takedown on him early on. Yoel uses his speed & reactiveness very smartly when he's fresh, which really makes up for his lack of actual technique in the stand up department.

Also really like straight bets on Alves (if he weighs in looking good), Cowboy and Fat Tim. I think all 3 of them are up against opponents that are stylistically favorable.
 
I see this as the most likely outcome too. I've opted for McGregor by decision for reasons that are more superstitous than rational (I bet McGregor by dec in the 2nd Diaz fight) but still see McGregor by dec as a potential outcome. McGregor has invested a shit-ton of money into improving his cardio and I feel like under the "blah blah KO round one" trash talk he's been spouting there have been suggestions that he has been preparing for a five round war. Can he evade Alvarez's takedowns and stick him and move enough to win 3 out of 5 rounds? I think it's possible, and at +800 it's worth a small play IMO.
Absolutely agree with you. I am considering to go big on o2.5 rounds @2.10 to this fight
 
I think Yoel is going to walk through Wideman, it'll look similar to when Vitor rushed him only Yoel wont stop and will beat him senseless. Post usada Wideman isn't the same physically, and he's taken a beating now so he wont be the same mentally either.

Conor, Woodly, KK to win.
 
Anyone else seeing Tyron/Wonderboy looking something like Ronda/Holly? A bull vs matador type of situation, Tryon being the bull and Wonderboy avoiding his rush by being more agile?

Not saying there is a direct comparison in terms of skill level, but that seems like the game each will play, it's just weather or not Tyron is too quick and Wonderboy cant escape his charge.
 
I think Yoel is going to walk through Wideman, it'll look similar to when Vitor rushed him only Yoel wont stop and will beat him senseless. Post usada Wideman isn't the same physically, and he's taken a beating now so he wont be the same mentally either.

Conor, Woodly, KK to win.
Are you concerned about how Yoel will look after a one year layoff at 39 years old?
 
I think Conor's BJJ could be in play here. It's possible that he could hit the sweep on Alvarez and maybe in a lesser case even catch his own TDs. With that said, Conor is a counter striker and his speciality is to "thread the needle" which can backfire on a guy who generally swings with a lot of power like Eddie. To think a guy like Nate Diaz (part 2) who throws with 50% was getting countered and dropped. I think Alvarez' powerful striking style actually fits well with what Conor is good at.

I do think if Alvarez gets a TD and if he doesn't do much with it, it'll be Conor's fight to win once he gets up or what the round is over.

You also gotta think that the shots that Eddie was able to land on RDA the southpaw will not land the same way with Conor who fights in a karate stance with a low guard rather than RDA with the traditional Muay Thai with the high guard which actually failed him when Eddie threw hooks that looked like straight punches when he first launches them.

Up until then Eddie had not faced any true southpaws either it's not like he has a lot of experience against them. You can count Pettis as a southpaw however but in that fight yes, he outwrestled Pettis. But Conor is a completely different fighter. There's also a certain range that Eddie cannot occupy, which is Conor's kicks. He's got the spinning variety that he uses, the front snap kicks, and up until recently he's learned the classic Muay Thai style that he had to use against Diaz II.

This is a huge event and all eyez are on this PPV. Seemingly I don't think Eddie can handle the bright lights he doesn't really have much charisma in my perspective, that of which is a real n*gga. Conor has uppped the ante so large that the pressure alone will make Eddie act out of character. Now, that entire part is just my guess on how the fight will play out psychologically but above I've explained how I see it technically.

I think Conor KO's Eddie within the 1st or 2nd.

I'm actually hoping that will happen too I'm a big supporter of his.
 
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