UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

[robbiedawg]

I disagree with Conor not having a good chance to win a decision. I think it's a very good possibility he picks his shots and cruises to a decision. He showed in their first fight that his speed advantage allowed him to get the better of most of the exchanges. His cardio was not the problem, his pacing was, and unless he's an idiot he won't fight like that again. Barring a takedown, in order for Diaz to win he will likely have push the pace by pressing the action. But that's easier said than done because Conor will be counter striking him, which I think is where Conor is at his best. So I think it's likely that both fighters will take measured cautious approach.

It's not going to be an easy fight for either guy, and I think the odds are appropriate where they are.

if it gets to round 3 conor is gonna get drowned. no one survives the pace the diaz bros set

 

[Aventurero]

kicks won't be a factor, both aren't great at leg kicks and both don't check them

So I'm guessing the worry that Conor will come in as a muay thai specialist this fight and smash Diaz's legs is null huh? . Diaz was checking MJ's kicks however - not all of them but about 50%. There was improvement shown.

 

[plekz]

people should really listen to the hh podcast, ruebush makes a ton of great points on the fight. and i agree fully. give conor all the respect in the world, but to win this fight by decision he's gonna have to fight like he's never fought before in his life, and go against pretty much all his natural tendencies as a striker, that he's spent hundreds (if not thousands) of hours honing.

 

[Barkus]

if it gets to round 3 conor is gonna get drowned. no one survives the pace the diaz bros set

That's very possible, but sometimes great counter striking can stifle a pace setter.

 

[edole]

If clay guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray maynard, ben Henderson, and rda can all find ways to win dominant decisions over Diaz then I think McGregor has a shot to figure it out himself.

 

[Joseph Budden]

If clay guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray maynard, ben Henderson, and rda can all find ways to win dominant decisions over Diaz then I think McGregor has a shot to figure it out himself.

Those guys are nothing like Conor lol and 80% of them are over 3 years ago.

 

[Barkus]

no he wasn't and the times nate rolled with the punches, conor was getting hit clean. almost every single time he came in, he would get a 1-2 or check hook as a thank you on the way out. and conor either doesn't get hit, or he gets hit clean. he has no middle ground. where as nate have several ways he uses to take the sting out of alot of shots that actually lands.

diaz won't have to be the one engaging, he has reach, length, and size on his side. he can just wait for conor to come to him, and just like the first fight, tag him on his exits. for conor to win a decision he'll have to fight a fight that he's yet to have in his entire career.

conor's whole style is set up for him to counter against ortodox fighters, that's how he's fought his entire career.

Nate lost the first 7 minutes handily. Conor's speed was a huge factor. Though you're right that Nate did a great job rolling with punches and countering.

edit: I meant to say Nate lost the first 7 minutes, not was lost

 

[Agent Mulder]

If clay guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray maynard, ben Henderson, and rda can all find ways to win dominant decisions over Diaz then I think McGregor has a shot to figure it out himself.

These guys can wrestle tho.

 

[plekz]

Nate was lost the first 7 minutes handily. Conor's speed was a huge factor. Though you're right that Nate did a great job rolling with punches and countering.

i don't think he was lost. more a case of him coming off a boat 10 days earlier after being on vacation. and thus he had to start slow, and then picked it up as it went on. he even said after the fight that he was surprised it happened so soon, meaning he thought it would take him longer to turn the fight on it's head then it did.

which would also explain why he was so calm when he walked back to his corner after the first round, he wasn't worried at all. and even told his corner to not worry.

If clay guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray maynard, ben Henderson, and rda can all find ways to win dominant decisions over Diaz then I think McGregor has a shot to figure it out himself.

how to beat nate isn't whats relevant. what is relevant is that conor can't do what any of those people did. he doesn't posess the style nor the skillset for it. so it's extremely irrelevant to even mention how they did it.

and nate was injured against rda, he even missed weight.

 

[Ballsaque]

If clay guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray maynard, ben Henderson, and rda can all find ways to win dominant decisions over Diaz then I think McGregor has a shot to figure it out himself.

You seeing a pattern in those loses' for Diaz though? And you seeing this pattern repeated in Conor's fighting style?

 

[PuertoRican]

It's amazing how delusional @edole is over Conor's skill set and chances of winning the fight. I don't know if he's serious, or just doing an amazing job at trolling.

Even if you're a fan of just one of the two fighters, I don't see how you can be super confident in either guy. The rightful lean should be Nate, but I'm not going to bet 10 units on him or something like that.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I respect edole for his belief in Lord Conor, who will still beat every fighter in the UFC whos not Nate Diaz

 

[edole]

Lol I slightly lean Connor in the matchup. I am just trying to put things into perspective for some potentially overconfident individuals who seem to be implying that this is a squash match.

I am a huge fan of Nate Diaz and when he wins he looks great, but he also has a tendency to come out and lay an egg at times.

 

[iGnP]

If clay guida, Joe Stevenson, Gray maynard, ben Henderson, and rda can all find ways to win dominant decisions over Diaz then I think McGregor has a shot to figure it out himself.

so you think Conor is gonna wrestle Nate?

 

[edole]

I have no idea what strategy Connor is going to employ, but I have to assume he is not going to try and go toe to toe with him and just throw hands.

If Connor has the endurance, i wouldn't be surprised if he tried to initiate some grappling to win rounds.

 

[mkess101]

people should really listen to the hh podcast, ruebush makes a ton of great points on the fight. and i agree fully. give conor all the respect in the world, but to win this fight by decision he's gonna have to fight like he's never fought before in his life, and go against pretty much all his natural tendencies as a striker, that he's spent hundreds (if not thousands) of hours honing.

Not to channel my inner Barry and
"Toot my own horn" but I've literally been saying exactly this for weeks. Asking a power striker that's used to landing and watching guys crumble to now become more a guy looking to land with the purpose of scoring rather than necessarily finishing is a HUGE ask.

 

[PuertoRican]

so you think Conor is gonna wrestle Nate?

If Connor has the endurance, i wouldn't be surprised if he tried to initiate some grappling to win rounds.

The grappling is another thing we haven't touched on much, aside from either saying Conor's BJJ sucks or it's not as bad as we thought it was, or that Nate's BJJ is just way better.

What was kinda weird to me while watching the first fight was how easy Nate got that single leg take down on Conor. Yeah, Conor did an amazing job at reversing it and ending up on top, but what happens if Nate goes for take downs in Rounds 3-4-5?

Prior to Nate taking Conor down, I don't remember the last time he used offensive wrestling in a fight.

 

[Card]

Nate will be a heavy bag, I'm too skilled for him to do anything else, he will hope the shots stop coming later in the fight, but they will not

 

[Aventurero]

Also when you keep in mind 1st fights such as GSP vs Serra 1 and Cain vs JDS 1, they had that ending where it was too quick. I don't like to use the word 'fluke' but that's the best word I can think of to describe these 2 fights or might we say ... "inconclusive"? Keeping in mind that both these fights were inconclusive, the Diaz vs McGregor 1 fight was not inconclusive. It was almost 2 rounds, much longer lasting than the 2 previous-mentioned fights.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Im going against the flow here but I think Conor grappling is somehow underrated. Not saying he matches Diaz there but he is not a scrub.

I feel he has a good top game with good gnp. The timing and killer instinct translates there. He showed a little of that against Holloway (mostly LnP and passes), Brandao and Nate round 1.

On his back he is like a turtle tho.

I do think that an active fighter like Nate is a nightmare to fight in the ground if you are not really really good avoiding subs and mantaining control (like RDA did). Also Nate long limbs make him even dangerous while fighting a midget.