UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[BluntTrauma21]

I am also on Cyborg rd 1 but only got it at -200 for 2u which I could've grabbed the opener at -160 or whatever it is but i was probably working on something boring, doing something stupid, or doing nothing. #degenerateproblems

 

[mkess101]

Well, since Rebel brought up lotto parlays....

Is this going to hit? Safe to say, absolutely not. Is this one of my favorite hail mary's i've ever done on a card? Absolutely.

LOL I just put this one together.

 

[PuertoRican]

According to fightmetric, Smith absorbs 8.46 strikes per minute. Not a good stat for her in this fight. And if these rumors about Cyborg's bad weight cut are true, Cyborg could be desperate to get a quick finish before she gasses. I understand your concerns but this is gambling after all.

Off topic but I saw that hail mary you posted. Man, im not gonna jinx it or anything right now, but I may have to copy that haha

The number of significant strikes that Leslie Smith absorbed in the 1st Round of her 4 UFC fights:

vs. Rin Nakai (22 in the full 5 minutes)
vs. Jessica Eye (64 in the full 5 minutes)
vs. Jessamyn Duke (16 in 2.5 minutes)
vs. Sarah Kaufman (71 in the full 5 minutes)

Nakai is anything but a striker, so eating 22 significant strikes in the first round against her is pretty bad. Duke got finished in the first round, but still landed 16 significant strikes before wilting to the pressure. I assume Duke would've landed at least 25 significant strikes if she got out of Round 1.

Both Eye and Kaufman are strikers; their stats speak for themselves.

 

[null]

LOL I just put this one together.

View attachment 97669

You guys are triggering my inner degen. Now I have to tail this one too. Except I put $10 on it.

 

[iGnP]

The number of significant strikes that Leslie Smith absorbed in the 1st Round of her 4 UFC fights:

vs. Rin Nakai (22 in the full 5 minutes)
vs. Jessica Eye (64 in the full 5 minutes)
vs. Jessamyn Duke (16 in 2.5 minutes)
vs. Sarah Kaufman (71 in the full 5 minutes)

Nakai is anything but a striker, so eating 22 significant strikes in the first round against her is pretty bad. Duke got finished in the first round, but still landed 16 significant strikes before wilting to the pressure. I assume Duke would've landed at least 25 significant strikes if she got out of Round 1.

Both Eye and Kaufman are strikers; their stats speak for themselves.

My thoughts exactly. Geez I hope Barry doesn't come in here and jinx the play by calling Cyborg a lock like he did w Cain, Conor, and Ronda ....

 

[Shoulder]

Did hear big parlays? I love those.

 

[macphee]

What the fuck is up!!!

At these odds, feel like you have to go with Brown.

He's been hard up for a lot of submission guys but his fight with Dong makes me think he can hold on/fight until Maia gasses. he's a strong dude. Brown with points is +170 and I feel good about it.

 

[macphee]

Although, I've been away from mma for awhile and don't know anything. Call me an idiot if I am!

 

[HIMBOB]

Shogun anderson under 2.5 at +165. Seems a steal. Thoughts?

 

[Shoulder]

Shogun anderson under 2.5 at +165. Seems a steal. Thoughts?

It's pretty likely to hit, but I am to unsure of Shogun to go for it. He could lose a onesided decision, but he might just as well get knocked out in the first round.

 

[HIMBOB]

It's pretty likely to hit, but I am to unsure of Shogun to go for it. He could lose a onesided decision, but he might just as well get knocked out in the first round.

Shogun has only lost 3 decisions ever, lyoto was close but imo fair and hendo was damn close as well.

And i dont see him winning by decision at this point.

 

[mkess101]

Shogun anderson under 2.5 at +165. Seems a steal. Thoughts?

Not bad if you think Shogun's chin is kind of done like I do.

I like my Anderson by KO/TKO at +550 much better though! (Thanks Jae or JimGunn or whoever pointed that one out! It's now +430).

 

[mkess101]

What the fuck is up!!!

At these odds, feel like you have to go with Brown.

He's been hard up for a lot of submission guys but his fight with Dong makes me think he can hold on/fight until Maia gasses. he's a strong dude. Brown with points is +170 and I feel good about it.

You are against most itt. Maia is juiced no doubt but Brown's tdd isn't elite and Maia's takedowns and ground game are the definition of elite.

If Maia gasses a lot of us (me anyway and I think others) hit Brown's rd 3 prop at huge odds as a hedge.

 

[Slohog]

Regarding this thing being in Brazil, fairly highly hyped and probably in a big stadium or something like that.

Wouldn't it be a decent idea to hold off any plays revolving around judges getting it right until we've seen a close-ish decision or two? Seem like something like Cory vs Shogun is one of those fights where if they judges are fair and likes top position he has fairly good value but if it's one of those "oh that Brazilian guy went for a leglock while eating 15 punches, let's give him the round" it's hard to see any value on Anderson at -200 or whatever he's at.

Thoughts?

 

[waiguoren]

Just rewatched Makdessi-Medeiros. What a silly decision. Makdessi clearly won the first two rounds and was dominating the third until he got caught with a left hook with just seconds left in the fight.

 

[chemmy]

Just rewatched Makdessi-Medeiros. What a silly decision. Makdessi clearly won the first two rounds and was dominating the third until he got caught with a left hook with just seconds left in the fight.

I expected Makdessi to get the nod (29-28), but to me it was a super-close fight that could've gone either way.

 

[chemmy]

Shogun anderson under 2.5 at +165. Seems a steal. Thoughts?

I think the most likely outcome for this fight is Anderson by decision, but @ +165 that under is tempting. Most Shogun finishes would probably be before that point and if Anderson really hunts for the finish (which I don't necessarily think he will) he could get it.

 

[chemmy]

What the fuck is up!!!

At these odds, feel like you have to go with Brown.

He's been hard up for a lot of submission guys but his fight with Dong makes me think he can hold on/fight until Maia gasses. he's a strong dude. Brown with points is +170 and I feel good about it.

Think if I were playing Brown, I'd be playing his money line at better odds than the +3.5. I think if he wins it's almost guaranteed to be inside the distance. If he lasts to the final bell, I'm thinking the best he'll likely do is a draw (10-8 3rd round), and I actually played that line for the hell of it... $50 risk paying out almost $10K.

 

[Shoulder]

Think if I were playing Brown, I'd be playing his money line at better odds than the +3.5. I think if he wins it's almost guaranteed to be inside the distance. If he lasts to the final bell, I'm thinking the best he'll likely do is a draw (10-8 3rd round), and I actually played that line for the hell of it... $50 risk paying out almost $10K.

I got him at 21.00 in R3, I put 0,5 U there.

 

[waiguoren]

I expected Makdessi to get the nod (29-28), but to me it was a super-close fight that could've gone either way.

Most of Medeiros's shots that people were counting actually only grazed Makdessi due to Makdessi's excellent head movement. Also people discount Makdessi's leg kicks and body shots. It was really a great performance by Makdessi. To me it's a case of judge-friendly vs. judge-unfriendly styles.