UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[Joseph Budden]

Well, since Rebel brought up lotto parlays....

Is this going to hit? Safe to say, absolutely not. Is this one of my favorite hail mary's i've ever done on a card? Absolutely.

 

[null]

Early Preliminary Parlay

Tukhugov/Carneiro o2.5 (-135)
Lineker/Font o1.5 (-145)
Cummins/Nogueira dec (-140)

Lotto Parlay

Carneiro dec +443
Lineker dec +439
Maia sub +165

I'm shamelessly tailing both of those parlays for $50 each.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Well, since Rebel brought up lotto parlays....

Is this going to hit? Safe to say, absolutely not. Is this one of my favorite hail mary's i've ever done on a card? Absolutely.

You need a straw for all that juice? Lol good luck playa.

I'm shamelessly tailing both of those parlays for $50 each.

It's heavier on the value side than it is being any indication of what will really happen lol. Let the stars and the universe align !!

 

[PuertoRican]

Confidence increase in Fabricio Werdum.

Miocic couldn't handle an ice bath like Werdum without crying, and he also wouldn't drink his own pee like Machida. He obviously doesn't have what it takes to be a UFC champion.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Just watched a Font fight and damn upon review I think he's definitely a live-dog. He's a very composed fighter and does the basics very well. Add to the fact that he's the longer and probably bigger fighter he could get the nod here. Let's see what style prevails, the smooth style of Font or the chaos of Lineker. If Lineker does get outclassed in that fashion I expect people to urge him back down to 125.

I also see Moicano losing the value he once had at +190 and +170 respectively at certain points. Now that he's +130 I don't feel like it's that great. I like Tuk by decision too at +185 but since I've already played Moicano my psuedo play will just be the o2.5 -135 (NOT the decision line because it's set at -120 which is a 15pt difference.)

 

[piglord]

MMA Betting Tips ‏@MMA_Betting 7h7 hours ago


I've heard from a very reliable source that Cyborg is having an extremely tough weight cut. I think there's some good value on Leslie Smith.

 

[Joseph Budden]

MMA Betting Tips ‏@MMA_Betting 7h7 hours ago


I've heard from a very reliable source that Cyborg is having an extremely tough weight cut. I think there's some good value on Leslie Smith.

Interesting considering Helwani is reporting the exact opposite lol

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Interesting considering Helwani is reporting the exact opposite lol

Regardless of who is right, I just know laying -1500 or whatever for a fighter making her UFC debut at a weight she has never even fought is not a good idea.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Regardless of who is right, I just know laying -1500 or whatever for a fighter making her UFC debut at a weight she has never even fought is not a good idea.

Yes horrible idea

Thats why I laid the juice on the KO line -445

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Yes horrible idea

Thats why I laid the juice on the KO line -445

lol crazy. Hopefully not in a main parlay. I'm actually liking Leslie R3 +4400 a lil more now. Extremely unlikely, but yeah

 

[Joseph Budden]

lol crazy. Hopefully not in a main parlay. I'm actually liking Leslie R3 +4400 a lil more now. Extremely unlikely, but yeah

Yes, my biggest parlay. Weight cut is only concern, and shes working with one of if not the best in the biz. If it doesn't affect her performance, this is a 2nd round KO at worst

Do I believe tout who wants you to pay him for fight picks and says barry sounding shit like "My VIP picks are now unlocked!", or GOAT Helwani? Hoping GOAT Helwani is right on this one

EDIT forgot to mention this confidence boost that leads me to believe Helwani is right, but Cyborg looked $HARP hitting pads in open workout footage

 

[iGnP]

Yes horrible idea

Thats why I laid the juice on the KO line -445

why KO line when the Rd 1 line is so much better

 

[Joseph Budden]

why KO line when the Rd 1 line is so much better

I honestly think Leslie could last til round 2. It wouldn't surprise me, she is tough as hell. I'm worried enough about the possibility that I wanted to keep it as what I view as safe as possible and pay the extra for the KO line

 

[iGnP]

I honestly think Leslie could last til round 2. It wouldn't surprise me, she is tough as hell. I'm worried enough about the possibility that I wanted to keep it as what I view as safe as possible and pay the extra for the KO line

she gets hit WAY too much. and none of the fighters that shes fought even come close to Cyborg's offense. idk, i think its much better than paying nearly -500

 

[Joseph Budden]

she gets hit WAY too much. and none of the fighters that shes fought even come close to Cyborg's offense. idk, i think its much better than paying nearly -500

While I do favor her getting the round 1 kill, the old expression "better safe than sorry" is one I kept in mind. To play devils advocate to your argument about the offense, Smith has never been KOd and is likely Cyborg's toughest opponent in 3 years, since Coenen. Jan Finney made it to the second. I would go to bed crying if somehow Smith lasted 5 mins and this is my big money parlay/play of the night

 

[iGnP]

While I do favor her getting the round 1 kill, the old expression "better safe than sorry" is one I kept in mind. To play devils advocate to your argument about the offense, Smith has never been KOd and is likely Cyborg's toughest opponent in 3 years, since Coenen. Jan Finney made it to the second. I would go to bed crying if somehow Smith lasted 5 mins and this is my big money parlay/play of the night

According to fightmetric, Smith absorbs 8.46 strikes per minute. Not a good stat for her in this fight. And if these rumors about Cyborg's bad weight cut are true, Cyborg could be desperate to get a quick finish before she gasses. I understand your concerns but this is gambling after all.

Off topic but I saw that hail mary you posted. Man, im not gonna jinx it or anything right now, but I may have to copy that haha

 

[EzFlyer]

According to fightmetric, Smith absorbs 8.46 strikes per minute. Not a good stat for her in this fight. And if these rumors about Cyborg's bad weight cut are true, Cyborg could be desperate to get a quick finish before she gasses. I understand your concerns but this is gambling after all.

exactly. she's hittable. cyborg is the hardest hitter in wmma history. cyborg is relentless.

factor in that smith should be 125, too.. she's just so fucked. she's going to get knocked over by cyborg's strikes and the crowd will go insane, the ref will jump in fast.

 

[iGnP]

exactly. she's hittable. cyborg is the hardest hitter in wmma history. cyborg is relentless.

factor in that smith should be 125, too.. she's just so fucked. she's going to get knocked over by cyborg's strikes and the crowd will go insane, the ref will jump in fast.

i didnt even consider the fight is in Brazil and the crowd. confidence increase

 

[Joseph Budden]

According to fightmetric, Smith absorbs 8.46 strikes per minute. Not a good stat for her in this fight. And if these rumors about Cyborg's bad weight cut are true, Cyborg could be desperate to get a quick finish before she gasses. I understand your concerns but this is gambling after all.

Off topic but I saw that hail mary you posted. Man, im not gonna jinx it or anything right now, but I may have to copy that haha

exactly. she's hittable. cyborg is the hardest hitter in wmma history. cyborg is relentless.

factor in that smith should be 125, too.. she's just so fucked. she's going to get knocked over by cyborg's strikes and the crowd will go insane, the ref will jump in fast.

I want nothing more than you guys to be right. A win is a win and the faster it comes the less chance I catch a heart attack

Not too bad for a hail mary right? haha by all means join me. The rare time I look at one i've put together and say to myself "Could this actually have the slightest chance of hitting?!"

 

[mkess101]

exactly. she's hittable. cyborg is the hardest hitter in wmma history. cyborg is relentless.

factor in that smith should be 125, too.. she's just so fucked. she's going to get knocked over by cyborg's strikes and the crowd will go insane, the ref will jump in fast.

This is EXACTLY why I went big on Cyborg rd 1. If she swarms Leslie and Leslie is covering up and not throwing back it's going most likely be an EXTREMELY quick stoppage given her hype, it's in Brazil, etc. And you know Cris is going to want to make a statement given how long this road has been for her to the UFC. It honestly probably won't matter if Leslie is blocking most of the punches or isn't in actual trouble. If she even looks to be in ANY sort of trouble it's really hard to not see the fight getting stopped.