UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[mkess101]

^^Yeah I didn't understand Brown getting bet down (Maia now bet back up). Brown is good in the clinch with strikes but has meh tdd and doesn't have huge one shot power. He wears guys down but like you said has had good stylistic matchups.

Don't get me wrong he's a legit top 10 guy and super fun to watch but I don't see what he has for Maia. Not sure if sub or lopsided dec but I definitely think Maia rolls here. Only hedge I made was Brown rd 3 at +1975 in case Maia gasses.

 

[Rasdun]

John Lineker vs. Rob Font
Correct me if im wrong, but it looks like a couple of people are leaning Rob Font. I think there is great value in Font, but I still gonna end up betting under or Lineker. Here's why:

The first obvious reason is the "hometown advantage". This crowd will go crazy every time one of their fighters are connecting and as we have seen before in Brazil the judges will be affected by this. This could certainly also be a FOTN potential. Lineker has met and beat better competition than Rob Font. Yes, Font is the CES champ, but he'll still haven't fought the same UFC kaliber competition as Lineker. Font has to stay on the outside without getting lurked in to a brawlfest by Lineker. I would compare this fight to Lineker vs. Mccall movement wise. Mccall was on his bicycle pretty much all the time and he is faster than Font. Still he got caught plenty of times in the pocket because of Linekers pace. Lineker has evolved his ground game and has a mean guillotine as well. His TDD is also pretty decent. Font should have the size advantage but I really don't know how Font is winning this fight. He'll have to stick and move, but I don't think he will be able to do that for three rounds. Lineker only need to connect one of those haymakers and he has 15 minutes to do that. When you really think about Lineker has just been more impressive.

I find great value in the under this fight. Both fighters are looking to KO each other early and both are able to do that. Font has to watch out, even if he connects on Lineker, Lineker is still very dangerous. Besides that Lineker has that "Kill or Die" attitude as we saw against Rivera. (pretty much every fight)

2u Under 1.5 @ +110
3u Lineker ML -220
Parlay fodder: Fight won’t go 3 round distance @ -260

Sorry for the bad english - English is not my primary language

maybe its misuse of English, but dont understand hiw you can think Font has greAt value but bet the other side? both sides cannot have value...

 

[Rasdun]

No I mean the favourites who have no value SU such as Alves, Santos, etc.

I know this has been discussed, but a line either has value or not. putting it into a parlay doesnt add any value to a line

 

[Rasdun]

Very good solid all round fighter, improved his mma game as well and fight iq and understands how to win rounds, he has real power in his punches and kicks (3x kickboxing champ) and knows when to mix in take downs or counter, his last fight against pearson was great he was able to do enough to still look better each round.

Trinaldo seems to me like Tibau 2.0. A good fighter wholl be on cusp of top 10. If he was -150, ok... but cannot see playing him at -225. I just bet 1.5 u on Medeiros at +205, as that line is too good to pass up.

 

[Hater Hater]

Font - http://blogs.theprovince.com/2016/05/11/ufc-198s-rob-font-this-is-my-coming-out-party/

“There are going to be a lot of eyes on this card – the card is stacked – so it’s my opportunity to let everybody know that I’m here to stay and I’m legit,”. I’m making a title run; I’m not just here to get in the UFC. This is my coming out party.

“And what better opponent than John Lineker? He could have had a title shot at ’25, he’s a big name, he’s ranked No. 12 and he’s an exciting fighter that people like to watch fight, so I’m ready to go.”

“I just have to make sure not to pull out tall with my chin in the air,” he offered. “I’ve fought a lot of guys that were taller than me before and that was their mistake – they would pull out with their chin high and I would crack them coming out.

“So my job is to get in there and be real smart and educated with my footwork, keep my range and control the distance the whole time – putting it all together with the footwork, the hands, the feet and put my pace on him. Obviously, he has a lot of power, so I can’t get in there and slug it out with him, but he has openings and I believe something up the middle is going to catch him.

“It will either be an uppercut, a knee or just a straight right, but something up the middle will work and I’m going to put him away.”

Font - http://mmajunkie.com/2016/05/rob-font-wants-more-fights-before-challenging-for-ufc-gold

“You already know, man. “I’m going out there, taking a head and coming home with it. I’m excited. I’m going to turn the crowd into Rob Font fans.”

“I kind of want to say I’m next in line for a title shot and all that,” Font said. “But I’d like to get at least two more fights in before I start making those statements and calling for title shots (with Johnson and Cruz) and those guys. I believe it puts me out there as far as rankings and all that and people knowing who I am. But I’d rather just sit back a little more and not really rush to take it to that championship level yet.”

Love this!!! Exactly what I would want him say because its exactly what he needs to do. Front kick to the face Font, Front kick to the faaaaace!!!!

 

[Joseph Budden]

Trinaldo seems to me like Tibau 2.0. A good fighter wholl be on cusp of top 10. If he was -150, ok... but cannot see playing him at -225. I just bet 1.5 u on Medeiros at +205, as that line is too good to pass up.

Tibau hand speed and boxing in general nowhere near as good as Massaranduba. Tibau also can't threaten with anything but takedowns from the clinch. Trinaldo can hurt you there.

 

[mkess101]

Pt Spreads I like and am betting:

Anderson -3.5 at +135. This covers both Anderson blanketing Shogun for 15 minutes and winning an easy decision, Anderson catching Shogun standing, and Anderson finishing Shogun on the mat. Those are the 3 most likely scenarios imo (and even if you still believe a bit in Shogun's ability to land a bomb, it's still 3 of the 4 most likely scenarios). At + odds I think this has terrific value.

Cummins -3.5 at +120. Pretty much the same as above except I don't think Cummmins will even entertain standing very long. But this covers the 2 most likely scenarios of him winning a lopsided decision by being the blanket or by him at some point breaking lil Nog on the mat.

Font +3.5 at -115. I think this will be a competitive fight. I like Linekar to figure out the distance but I think it's going to take him a round or so. I see Font having a good first round but Linekar doing good body work and making it a more inside fight as it goes on. I think this is the rare fight where Linekar at -150 isn't a horrible bet at all but the Font pt spread also has value. I will admit this one is a bit of a hedge for me since I have Linekar in a few parlays. Linekar split dec would be ideal for me.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Pt Spreads I like and am betting:

Anderson -3.5 at +135. This covers both Anderson blanketing Shogun for 15 minutes and winning an easy decision, Anderson catching Shogun standing, and Anderson finishing Shogun on the mat. Those are the 3 most likely scenarios imo (and even if you still believe a bit in Shogun's ability to land a bomb, it's still 3 of the 4 most likely scenarios). At + odds I think this has terrific value.

Cummins -3.5 at +120. Pretty much the same as above except I don't think Cummmins will even entertain standing very long. But this covers the 2 most likely scenarios of him winning a lopsided decision by being the blanket or by him at some point breaking lil Nog on the mat.

Font +3.5 at -115. I think this will be a competitive fight. I like Linekar to figure out the distance but I think it's going to take him a round or so. I see Font having a good first round but Linekar doing good body work and making it a more inside fight as it goes on. I think this is the rare fight where Linekar at -150 isn't a horrible bet at all but the Font pt spread also has value. I will admit this one is a bit of a hedge for me since I have Linekar in a few parlays. Linekar split dec would be ideal for me.

Not saying they are bad or anything, but all 3 picks are foreigners fighting a Brazilian in Brazil. Just wanted to let that be known lol

 

[Ukram]

All those interviews were pretty much spot on with how we feel the styles will go...

Font with his talk about foot work, speed and counter and not getting into a brawl with lineker.
Cummings via his training and getting back in the w side, pretty much expects to lay on nog and gnp if he can. Alves discussion about his sub but other tools (ko) to get the W. Corey noting how when he uses take downs he controls fights to win. Maia saying he keeps winning regardless wants that next title shot and brown understanding he uses his jiu jitsu to get the win each time but he has more tools to win.

 

[mkess101]

Not saying they are bad or anything, but all 3 picks are foreigners fighting a Brazilian in Brazil. Just wanted to let that be known lol

For sure in Font/Linekar that's something to consider. No question. But that's also kind of a hedge for my Linekar action.

The other two are just to not have to figure out if they will win by dec or stoppage without paying the juice. I just don't see either fight being close.

 

[lefontes]

@lefontes can you help us out?

Bunch of Brazilian interviews - but need a translator

https://www.youtube.com/user/UFCnoBrasil/videos

I will translate all now and will put here 1 by 1... Here we go!

 

[lefontes]

Brazilian interview Santos translator: "Hes make full camp without injuries, make weight without problems, think that Nate will change a little bit striking but maybe will try wrestler but Marreta trained a lot tdd and bjj. Hes not rush to obtain top 10, but is very focus to top rankings in end of year, hes want fight in this year"

 

[lefontes]

Brazilian interview Alves translator: "Very sad with Anderson injurie. Very happy to fight on main card this event, think Barb is very dangerous, very good chin, tough guy, weel rounded, but Alves hes very trained and very prepare all áreas, dont will make mistakes as Sage do and lose via katagatame. Alves say that dont will leave Barb fight, he's confident and will to victory all time."

 

[lefontes]

Brazilian interview Trinaldo translator: "Hes very relax, want more ansious, but is very relax (lol), hes confident and focus. Think that Medeiros not will beat in here Brazil, not worry what american will do, hes prepare for all áreas, striking, grappling, wrestling, all. Hes are good streak wins and will continues this for obtain top ranking. Hes will send spells in Medeiros (lol)"




ps. Love this guy, pure heart !

 

[lefontes]

Brazilian interview Lineker translator: "Hes happy to fight inside your house, want make show. Very prepare to fight. About Font know that american fighter is dangerous in striking and wrestling but hes looking for Ko all time, want increase top rankings and possible title shot"

 

[lefontes]

Brazilian interview Moicano translator: "Hes know responsability to fight in front 45k, dispiste layoff, but all ok now, very prepared and try to max relax. About Thukugov, very tough, good 3 fight winning streak, and think that russian fight want toe to toe and Moicano prepare for all, maybe first round less, but 2 and 3 is war. Think that way to victory is by decision."

 

[Rebel_LioN]

EDIT: while i mention the word 'parlay', it doesn't need to be said that the best plays are single bets and NOT parlays. I've already placed and will have placed my single plays but I reserve alot of my action for Live-Bets too.

Early Preliminary Parlay

Tukhugov/Carneiro o2.5 (-135)
Lineker/Font o1.5 (-145)
Cummins/Nogueira dec (-140)

Lotto Parlay

Carneiro dec +443
Lineker dec +439
Maia sub +165

~~~~~~~~

- We're talking 125/135ers here.. the o1.5 or the decision for either guy I can't pass up. I know Lineker is like a wolverine in there but it takes 2 to tango and Font isn't gonna 'Cisco' it up in there he'll keep it technical if he can. I'm basing this pick off Lineker's aggression and he's in Brazil. Guys like him who is crazy in the head are hard to make flinch and are hard to predict. I expect Font to run into this problem when he tries to judge his distance.

- Carneiro is a kicker, Zubaira is a puncher for the most part. Carneiro has a good jab too but he doesn't carry alot of power. His kicks though come from many angles as he switch kicks and he also goes high/low. There isn't much data you can collect from him as he's only had 1 UFC fight so far and that he's been out for so long to an apparent knee injury.

Zubes fights in a bladed stance and he throws with power and conviction but he doesn't have set ups for his hooks per say, he wings them to let you know that you better respect it. And then he mixes in his spinning attacks. While his front leg is ripe for the kicking, he's very well aware of where he stands and he tries to bait his foot and counter you, or he'll catch the foot and try and take you down because he's a very adept wrestler himself.

I'm not sure where the finish materializes here honestly, and I'm partly Fight Finder capping this fight to go the distance judging by both guys' records.

- Cummins looking to get the fight to the ground and grind the BJJ black belt from the top. The decision is -140. Lil nog is NOT flakey like Feijao is. Cummins is also no Rumble Johnson. This is an easy pick IMO.

- I probably don't need to mention the Maia play. Matt Brown has come a long way and I'm sure he's improved his BJJ a ton but I love Maia's game I'm just gonna play it. I'm sure there's an off chance that Brown can survive and try to get Maia to gas but Demian looks motivated to get that title shot if he snatches up a sub it could implicate ALOT.

 

[lefontes]

Brazilian interview Moraes translator: "The crowd is inside him all time, very relax on fight Curitiba (hes live in Curitiba also Chagas), very good form, dont worry to change oponent , know that Chagas is good on the ground but is think that Luan will looking for striking game. Moraes maybe try ground game, but hes prepare striking and looking for the sub or ko all time. Nobody wait Sergio Ko last fight, but hes do."

 

[lefontes]

Thats it guys, sorry my bad english!

 

[lefontes]

Early Preliminary Parlay

Tukhugov/Carneiro o2.5 (-135)
Lineker/Font o1.5 (-145)
Cummins/Nogueira dec (-140)

Lotto Parlay

Carneiro dec +443
Lineker dec +439
Maia sub +165


- Cummins looking to get the fight to the ground and grind the BJJ black belt from the top. The decision is -140. Lil nog is NOT flakey like Feijao is. Cummins is also no Rumble Johnson. This is an easy pick IMO.

Like this all bets a lot.