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Interesting point !tavares isn't known for his offensive wrestling because in the vast majority of fights he's the one with the striking advantage. he's going to wrestle here i guarantee.
Interesting point !tavares isn't known for his offensive wrestling because in the vast majority of fights he's the one with the striking advantage. he's going to wrestle here i guarantee.
A couple of things I want to add on about Tavares / Israel ....
1. Tavares does not need to have perfect tds because just one td is a round winning event. Tavares does not have the best offensive wrestling and Israel's tdd is not bad, but Tavares does not have to successfully finish every td. If he gets one td on five attempts, he will probably win the fight with that ratio because Israel has pretty amateur ability to get back his feet and he just plays full guard and gives up rounds. One takedown for Brad Tavares is probably a round winning event (please see Vettori round 3).
2. This five round thing is huge (Vettori could have very likely won the fight in a five rounder vs Israel and Tavares is just a much better version of Vettori). Israel seems to slow down and his takedown defense gets worse as time goes on and if he has already been taken down earlier in the fight. His TDD was significantly more technical and crisp in the first and second round against Vettori than it was in the third. Then the takedown came pretty easily and he wasn't whizzering or using actual wrestling TD as much. If this similar timeline occurs vs Brad, Brad will take full advantage as he has great cardio.
I think Tavares in a five rounder should be the betting favorite so I went pretty hard on him at plus 160 last week.
Tavares is what you call a solid competitor
Adesanya got the sauce
Its clear which guy is going to win, don't be surprised
A couple of things I want to add on about Tavares / Israel ....
1. Tavares does not need to have perfect tds because just one td is a round winning event. Tavares does not have the best offensive wrestling and Israel's tdd is not bad, but Tavares does not have to successfully finish every td. If he gets one td on five attempts, he will probably win the fight with that ratio because Israel has pretty amateur ability to get back his feet and he just plays full guard and gives up rounds. One takedown for Brad Tavares is probably a round winning event (please see Vettori round 3).
2. This five round thing is huge (Vettori could have very likely won the fight in a five rounder vs Israel and Tavares is just a much better version of Vettori). Israel seems to slow down and his takedown defense gets worse as time goes on and if he has already been taken down earlier in the fight. His TDD was significantly more technical and crisp in the first and second round against Vettori than it was in the third. Then the takedown came pretty easily and he wasn't whizzering or using actual wrestling TD as much. If this similar timeline occurs vs Brad, Brad will take full advantage as he has great cardio.
I think Tavares in a five rounder should be the betting favorite so I went pretty hard on him at plus 160 last week.
Good points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this? I think he might stay standing and try to beat Adesanya in a striking battle. I'm not sure about Tavares fight IQ. He comes across pretty dumb and he's had it real easy in his last few fights. This is a fight where there is a clear path to victory by mixing wrestling with striking but the guy doesn't come across as the smartest guy in the world.
Adesanya got starched last year. His chin is also suspect
Yes. You don't have to be Elon Musk to follow a gameplan ya?Good points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this?
Yes. You don't have to be Elon Musk to follow a gameplan ya?
Tavares seems pretty thick. I'm not sure he won't just come in and try to prove he is the better striker. We see fighters fight dumb fights every week. Watch Tavares being interviewed - the guy doesn't look like he's got the highest IQ in the world to put it mildly.
I do think it's a dog or pass fight though.
Oh I've seen him be interviewed. The ability to be well spoken doesn't really effect how you do come fight night. Magic Marlon doesn't sound like the smartest dude either and hes starched top 10 dudes his last two fights.Tavares seems pretty thick. I'm not sure he won't just come in and try to prove he is the better striker. We see fighters fight dumb fights every week. Watch Tavares being interviewed - the guy doesn't look like he's got the highest IQ in the world to put it mildly.
I do think it's a dog or pass fight though.
Road trip! I'll bring sandwiches.I'm not saying he sounded like he's gonna be doing the calculations for NASA when we send people to Mars
Tavares has beaten (and looked much better doing it) better guys than Israel has even faced so far. I realize that Israel is at that point in his career where huge leaps in his game are possible. I also realize he has the striking pedigree that means he can potentially get anyone out of there if he lands. But I cannot fathom paying juice on a guy coming off a lackluster win vs a guy like Vettori when he's facing a much better overall fighter in Tavares this time out.
Again, we could see a much better version of Adesanya this time out, but if we see a similar guy to what we saw in his last fight, he's gonna get smoked.
To be fair, Adesanya has one KO/TKO loss in over 70 professional fights and he's been in there with some of the top kickboxers in the world. Alex Pereira (the guy who KO'd him) is the current Glory middleweight camp and homeboy can punch. If anyone has a suspect chin it's Brad Tavares. And Brad Tavares ain't KO'ing anyone, he has average punching power but he's not a finisher, he's a point fighter. 10 decisions, 2 KO's in UFCGood points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this? I think he might stay standing and try to beat Adesanya in a striking battle. I'm not sure about Tavares fight IQ. He comes across pretty dumb and he's had it real easy in his last few fights. This is a fight where there is a clear path to victory by mixing wrestling with striking but the guy doesn't come across as the smartest guy in the world.
Adesanya got starched last year. His chin is also suspect
Israel's fairly easy to take down, and to hold onto. Vettori had a lot of success once he started shooting, and Wilkinson got him down with mediocre wrestling and essentially pure enthusiasm/aggression.To be fair, Adesanya has one KO/TKO loss in over 70 professional fights and he's been in there with some of the top kickboxers in the world. Alex Pereira (the guy who KO'd him) is the current Glory middleweight camp and homeboy can punch. If anyone has a suspect chin it's Brad Tavares. And Brad Tavares ain't KO'ing anyone, he has average punching power but he's not a finisher, he's a point fighter. 10 decisions, 2 KO's in UFC
I don't wanna say too much but I'm not particularly concerned with Tavares takedown threat either, Vettori was a bigger threat in that aspect. Adesanaya is not easy to takedown or hold down, he's only getting better too.
I think it's a little ignorant to say "he's getting smoked", if Tavares does pull of a win it will very likely be a competitive decision
I have not done business with Adesanaya yet but its quite possible that I do. And yet again I have generously given you all another expert opinion
Adesanya's takedown defense is pretty average for a UFC middleweight, it's not great but it's certainly not bad. He's really not that easy to take down and everytime he has been taken down he's found a way back to his feet.Israel's fairly easy to take down, and to hold onto. Vettori had a lot of success once he started shooting, and Wilkinson got him down with mediocre wrestling and essentially pure enthusiasm/aggression.
I do think Tavares is gonna shoot back out to +150 or so closer to the event, due to a lot of public money coming in on the man that urinates in the cage.
Public's a bunch of Aussies who barely follow the sport, but recognize Israel's name. Your opinion means jack shit unless you've got something third-party tracked, or a collection of bet slips. Preferably both. Wilkinson's a shitty wrestleboxer from the Aussie regionals, even if wants to grapple, it's not something he's particularly good at in a UFC context. He also hit 40% of his TDs against Siyar, who was coming up in weight and coming off like a 30-month layoff.Adesanya's takedown defense is pretty average for a UFC middleweight, it's not great but it's certainly not bad. He's really not that easy to take down and everytime he has been taken down he's found a way back to his feet.
Wilkinson is almost a pure grappler and his whole game is based on taking you down and attacking from top position. Sure Wilkinson is a scrub but he's a big strong middleweight and he went 3/15 on takedowns against Adesanya, could not hold him down at all.
Vettori went 2/6 on takedowns and had more success than Wilkinson did on that mat but he couldn't keep Adesanya down either, at least not for long. Adesanya knows what he's doing, his takedown defense is decent and his get ups are probably better than decent.
I disagree about your prediction on the line movement, gotta think these odds will only continue to close in, could end up as a pick'em.
And speaking of "public money" no one defines the public better than you Sherbros, you guys are the public. Maybe a handful of you are an exception but generally speaking that is a fact.
Big on Tavares. Israel still not good MMA fighter just good in striking game but this is MMA not kickboxing.