Trump Talks Tough Against Iran, But His Political Options Are Limited

[VivaRevolution]

Trump Talks Tough Against Iran, But His Political Options Are Limited
PATRICK COCKBURN • APRIL 24, 2018


A crisis in relations between the US and Iran – which has the potential to produce a military confrontation in the Middle East – is building rapidly in the expectation that President Donald Trump will withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal in just over two weeks’ time.

Mr Trump is demanding that Iran effectively renegotiate the terms of the agreement which traded the suspension of US economic sanctions for a stop to Iran’s nuclear programme.

The White House sounds as if it has already decided to exit the agreement, which Mr Trump persistently denounced before and after his election as “the worst deal in the world”.

But he has put forward no alternative to what was successfully negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2015 other than a series of demands with which Iran is unlikely to comply, and appear designed to put the blame for the US action on Iran.

US officials admit that Iran has so far abided by the terms of the 2015 accord.

A more openly confrontational posture by the US towards Iran would achieve very little, unless Washington replaces the attempt to achieve its ends by diplomacy with sustained military action. Iran is already on the winning side in the wars that have raged in Iraq since 2003 and in Syria since 2011.

It is closely allied to the Iraqi and Syrian governments and to reverse the balance of power in the region, the US would have revert to sustained military intervention on the scale of the Iraq War, something Mr Trump has always opposed.

Iran may have already decided that the deal cannot be saved. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani warned Mr Trump on Tuesday that the US must stay within its terms which Tehran signed with other great powers or face “severe consequences”.

Mr Rouhani said in a live broadcast on state television that: “I am telling those in the White House that if they do not live up to their commitments, the Iranian government will firmly react.

http://www.unz.com/pcockburn/trump-talks-tough-against-iran-but-his-political-options-are-limited/


____________________________________________________________

So what do you guys think will happen?

My prediction. Trump withdraws from the Iran deal. At that point Iran starts building nukes to their full capabilities.

What happens next is where I get confused. I don't think Iran can be defeated militarily without a full scale war commitment from the US. In defense of Iranian territory, I don't think Israel and the gulf states can defeat Iran.

So, Iran goes turtle mode for 3-5 years, as North Korea has for decades now, gets their nuke, and then what?

Or do we imagine the US public supporting full scale war with Iran, where we will send home more body bags then Vietnam?

Discuss.....

 

[Trotsky]

He has a plan, the best plan, believe him

 

[ShinkanPo]

CockBurn

 

[tkotom]

He has a plan, the best plan, believe him

He just denuclearized Korea, got the remaining Americans released and he got the North to agree to keeping all of the American soldiers in the peninsula.

I'm guessing you wrote that same dumb as fuck comment when he said he would solve Korea months ago.

Get over yourself.

 

[Trotsky]

He just denuclearized Korea, got the remaining Americans released and he got the North to agree to keeping all of the American soldiers in the peninsula.

I'm guessing you wrote that same dumb as fuck comment when he said he would solve Korea months ago.

Get over yourself.

Holy sensitive. I can see you believe him.

Let's just hope it's as brilliant as his better+cheaper health care plan and his plan re TPP.

 

[tkotom]

Holy sensitive. I can see you believe him.

Let's just hope it's as brilliant as his better+cheaper health care plan and his plan re TPP.

It's not that I believe him. I actually think his Iran hawking is a disaster in the making. But i'm also not a deranged moron, just foaming at the mouth at everything he says. He proved he can deliver on Korea, so why make fun of him as though somehow you could have done a better job? At the very least, he's smarter than you; given your comments.

 

[Trotsky]

It's not that I believe him. I actually think his Iran hawking is a disaster in the making. But i'm also not a deranged moron, just foaming at the mouth at everything he says. He proved he can deliver on Korea, so why make fun of him as though somehow you could have done a better job? At the very least, he's smarter than you; given your comments.

Maybe not deranged, but certainly irrationally angry, and definitely a moron.

The Korea situation is great, but still hilarious as well since, you know, we're now claiming the blatantly self interested and strategic conduct of foreign dictators as our victories. And types like you are using it to somehow maintain your denial that your strongman is a fucking idiot.

But I'm happy as a clam. Foaming derangement is bliss.

 

[Fluffernutter]

My guess is that if the US backs out, this guy will try to start his own program

 

[bobgeese]

If you’re pretending the Iran deal is anything but a pinky promise not to build nukes, you’re misinformed.

Unfortunately, Obama already empowered them a great deal. It’s really too bad we didn’t have Trump at the table then, leading the international community to put maximum pressure on them. Now we’re left cleaning up Obama’s mess.

 

[Trotsky]

If you’re pretending the Iran deal is anything but a pinky promise not to build nukes, you’re misinformed.

You're uninformed, Bob. By the appraisals of just about every Middle East policy expert, disinterested or otherwise, it was a very good deal for the US.

And just lol @ the last part.

 

[bobgeese]

You're uninformed, Bob. By the appraisals of just about every Middle East policy expert, disinterested or otherwise, it was a very good deal for the US.

And just lol @ the last part.

Is that why there is currently an international effort to add additional conditions to the “agreement”?


Once again, obama used his “bend over and take it” negotiation approach leaving behind the reality that he essentially guaranteed Iran would get nukes.


“President Obama didn’t require Iranian leaders to sign the nuclear deal that his team negotiated with the regime, and the deal is not “legally binding,” his administration acknowledged in a letter to Representative Mike Pompeo

“The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is not a treaty or an executive agreement, and is not a signed document,”


It’s literally a pinky promise and nothing more. The notion that anyone holds this up as a success is evidence of their ignorance.

 

[xcvbn]

The Iran deal was the best thing Obama did in office. Far from perfect as it didn't fully simmer the tensions with Iran, but it was a good start.

Problem is, Israel and Saudi Arabia can't be having their scapegoat(Iran) for all middle eastern problems be on good terms with their sugar daddy(USA).

A war vs Iran is guaranteed to be much worse than Vietnam. We will send home American bodies by the boatload and Iran will be burning their casualties by the hectare.

 

[bobgeese]

The Iran deal was the best thing Obama did in office. Far from perfect as it didn't fully simmer the tensions with Iran, but it was a good start.

Problem is, Israel and Saudi Arabia can't be having their scapegoat(Iran) for all middle eastern problems be on good terms with their sugar daddy(USA).

A war vs Iran is guaranteed to be much worse than Vietnam. We will send home American bodies by the boatload and Iran will be burning their casualties by the hectare.

What “deal”?


You realize there are no signatures. It is not legally binding in any way. It is literally a pinky promise and nothing more. If you consider that success, so be it.

 

[12ga.]

Trumps an idiot if he pulls out. Iran will resume full testing/production and boot IAEA out. At that point he has two choices. Iraq part 2 which is 10x harder than iraq was. Or look like a fool. Not only that USA's word aint worth dick in future since they break agreements at will. Other countries will remember that.

At this point in time with poor Russia and China relations and EU for that matter I doubt Trump could even do meaningful sanctions. His choice will be war or Iran gets nukes.

 

[Last Samurai]

Trump can't go to war with Iran, for 2 reasons

1. another war does not sit well with his base

2. Iran is allied with Russia, and if he acts up

they can release their kompromat​

 

[bobgeese]

they can release their kompromat​

LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL


HOW FUCKING DELUSIONAL ARE YOU?


We’ve now embarrassed Putin on the world stage twice. We strolled over and dropped bombs on his bestie, and punked him like the paper tiger they are.

Yet you still think they’re holding on to pee pee tapes that will finally take out trump.

 

[Deleted member 457759]

Obama hated Israel so he empowered Iran.

What we need is a stable western friendly and dominat middle eastern power. For the world and for stability in the mid east. This leaves us 2 options. Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iran will not co exist with Israel and funds military and terrorist operations all over. Their leaders are the furthest thing possible away from western values.

The Saudis have been planning to transform their economy into a tourist economy by irrigating the region, westernizing it, and modernizing it so it can attract European and north Americans as they have the most tourist dollars to spend.

It makes sense that the conspiracy should be to topple Iran and support the Saudis.

 

[Last Samurai]

LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL


HOW FUCKING DELUSIONAL ARE YOU?


We’ve now embarrassed Putin on the world stage twice. We strolled over and dropped bombs on his bestie, and punked him like the paper tiger they are.

Yet you still think they’re holding on to pee pee tapes that will finally take out trump.

the pee tape (if it exists) is the least of his worries

nobody will go to jail for that. it's the financial
ties and election meddling that threaten him
if you don't think Putin has dirt on Trump
then you haven't been paying attention

 

[bobgeese]

the pee tape (if it exists) is the least of his worries

nobody will go to jail for that. it's the financial
ties and election meddling that threaten him
if you don't think Putin has dirt on Trump
then you haven't been paying attention

LOLOLOLOLOLLLLL

Oh I’ve been paying attention, to how the collusion narrative quietly turned into the OOJ narrative that slowly turned into the Whormy Daniels narrative, that shifted to the doctors note narrative.

Meanwhile, Trumps about to end the Korean War and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

Since you’re a true believer, maybe you should pen a letter of thanks to Putin for making the whole damn world great again.

 

[VivaRevolution]

You're uninformed, Bob. By the appraisals of just about every Middle East policy expert, disinterested or otherwise, it was a very good deal for the US.

And just lol @ the last part.

Let's be accurate. It was the least shitty option on the table.

Trump is obviously carrying Israeli and Saudi water, at the expense of his country.