Trump/Clinton officially TIED in latest poll

[TheStruggle]

That doesn't matter because they're more relevant than ever. The reason is that party towing is a predictable thing. If Trump secures the nomination, or rather if there is the misperception that he has secured it, as seems to be the case following a week with 6 primaries spanning his strongest region, then you see those who would never vote Democrat or never vote Republican quickly jump on board. What those earlier polls give you is a genuine indication of how the voters in the middle actually feel about a candidate, and the GOP voters (yes, the majority of them) hate Donald Trump. Hillary may have high unfavorability in national polls when she's down, but she and Bernie are both beat up right now (he is also down double digit points), not perpetually the way Trump is, and when they're up they're both quite popular with Democrats. Trump has NEVER polled well with Republicans. Never.

So what those early polls give you, and where this Rasmussen poll misleads (and I'm speaking about where it misleads separate to its right-wing bias) is that it gives you no indication of their peaks and lows within their party and the general electorate, and it doesn't give you an honest portrayal of a candidate's actual appeal across his party.

You want to distort that to sell Trump as more electable, but all the lipstick at the fair won't hide this pig.

So in other words, The right wing poll is BS but all the others are legit...in April. got it

 

[Madmick]

I don't think you guys understand why people become Independents. Most people who make this choice have abandoned a party, due to the party's actions. Hillary Clinton represents those actions that turn people into Independents.

You don't identify as an Independent because you are happy with the status quo, establishment center.

As I have said all along, if this ends up Trump v Hillary, this election will be decided by who can define the narrative. If it is about Trump, he is in trouble. If it is about Clinton she is in trouble.

Considering that the MSM can't stop giving Trump wall to wall coverage, in the way that a heroine addict can't stop using heroine, I feel like Trump is going to have a pretty easy time defining the narrative.

Really? You don't think a lifelong independent like me would understand why someone would be independent? As I wrote earlier, I registered Republican this election season because the Presidential primary is closed in my state, and I could tell that this cycle, for the first time in my life, that my Presidential votes might actually hold some weight; that party leaders might actually give a damn how the numbers shape up in California.

Of course, that has nothing to do with my comment about which independent voters favor him, which isn't something that exists or changes at my whim, nor why I've been independent throughout most of my voting life. Don't pontificate to me about why people choose to be independent by declaring your own dissatisfaction as monolithic. You don't speak for everyone. I'm merely pointing out which bloc of the independent voters have supported Trump. Winning independent voters versus GOP opponents in a GOP primary isn't at all the same as winning them versus a Democrat in a general election.

Look, I'll hit you over the head with this hammer a second time. Maybe this time when you come around you'll remember how to count:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

That's from January 28th this year.

So in other words, The right wing poll is BS but all the others are legit...in April. got it

This particular right-wing poll has a history of being more inaccurate than the other polls in Presidential elections, and it errs in favor of GOP candidates. It's not the only "right-wing" poll up there (as GWU is a conservative institution).
No, you who would cry wolf about bias, it's just that it sort of happens to be by itself versus over a half dozen other polls that put Hillary at +7-11 points. Those other polls, as you can see, are also recent.

 

[reflector]

I look for the polls to change many times between now and November.

 

[Madmick]

I look for the polls to change many times between now and November.

They always do. That's why you have to pay attention to the underlying fundamentals that affect the fluctuations, the variability that arises from timing, and the denominators that hold true throughout. We seem keen on not wanting to do that in this thread in a cockeyed desire to paint Trump as electable.

 

[TheStruggle]

Really? You don't think a lifelong independent like me would understand why someone would be independent? As I wrote earlier, I registered Republican this election season because the Presidential primary is closed in my state, and I could tell that this cycle, for the first time in my life, that my Presidential votes might actually hold some weight; that party leaders might actually give a damn how the numbers shape up in California.

Of course, that has nothing to do with my comment about which independent voters favor him, which isn't something that exists or changes at my whim, nor why I've been independent throughout most of my voting life. Don't pontificate to me about why people choose to be independent by declaring your own dissatisfaction as monolithic. You don't speak for everyone. I'm merely pointing out which bloc of the independent voters have supported Trump. Winning independent voters versus GOP opponents in a GOP primary isn't at all the same as winning them versus a Democrat in a general election.

Look, I'll hit you over the head with this hammer a second time. Maybe this time when you come around you'll remember how to count:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

That's from January 28th this year.

That same poll had Cruz, Rubio, and Carson as nearly double more favorable than Trump amongst Republicans going into the the first primary. I'm assuming things changed between January and now.

 

[Madmick]

That same poll had Cruz, Rubio, and Carson as nearly double more favorable than Trump amongst Republicans going into the the first primary. I'm assuming things changed between January and now.

If that shows up in another poll, then you'll finally be on the road to not manipulating your equation to get the answer you want! As it stands, not only has this not been observed in all of the other polls, or most of the other polls, or even some of the polls...no, it hasn't been observed in a single one of them!

The struggle is real. Stay thirsty.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Really? You don't think a lifelong independent like me would understand why someone would be independent? As I wrote earlier, I registered Republican this election season because the Presidential primary is closed in my state, and I could tell that this cycle, for the first time in my life, that my Presidential votes might actually hold some weight; that party leaders might actually give a damn how the numbers shape up in California.

Of course, that has nothing to do with my comment about which independent voters favor him, which isn't something that exists or changes at my whim, nor why I've been independent throughout most of my voting life. Don't pontificate to me about why people choose to be independent by declaring your own dissatisfaction as monolithic. You don't speak for everyone. I'm merely pointing out which bloc of the independent voters have supported Trump. Winning independent voters versus GOP opponents in a GOP primary isn't at all the same as winning them versus a Democrat in a general election.

Look, I'll hit you over the head with this hammer a second time. Maybe this time when you come around you'll remember how to count:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

That's from January 28th this year.

This particular right-wing poll has a history of being more inaccurate than the other polls in Presidential elections, and it errs in favor of GOP candidates. It's not the only "right-wing" poll up there (as GWU is a conservative institution).
No, you who would cry wolf about bias, it's just that it sort of happens to be by itself versus over a half dozen other polls that put Hillary at +7-11 points. Those other polls, as you can see, are also recent.

Eh, you are right that I's aren't monolithic. However, I do believe that the recent influx of I's, that have made Independents the majority in this country, abandoned their former party because of the centrists.

I see the favorable numbers you posted for I's, but I also know that Trump has more Independent votes then any candidate so far. Not sure how to marry those two facts together.

 

[Madmick]

Eh, you are right that I's aren't monolithic. However, I do believe that the recent influx of I's, that have made Independents the majority in this country, abandoned their former party because of the centrists.

I see the favorable numbers you posted for I's, but I also know that Trump has more Independent votes then any candidate so far. Not sure how to marry those two facts together.

I literally just explained to you how. Take your fingers out of your ears.

 

[TheStruggle]

If that shows up in another poll, then you'll finally be on the road to not manipulating your equation to get the answer you want! As it stands, not only has this not been observed in all of the other polls, or most of the other polls, or even some of the polls...no, it hasn't been observed in a single one of them!

The struggle is real. Stay thirsty.

So the poll you posted can only be used to support your argument even if there is clear issue with the argument you are trying to use. Got it.

 

[Madmick]

So the poll you posted can only be used to support your argument even if there is clear issue with the argument you are trying to use. Got it.

I clearly said that this poll is an outlier with a precedent for gross inaccuracy with bias towards the GOP candidate.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[TheStruggle]

I clearly said that this poll is an outlier with a precedent for gross inaccuracy with bias towards the GOP candidate.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

If you want to listen to polls

Clinton's lead on Trump has dropped over 4% in just the last month over Donald Trump. It's like things are changing the closer we get to November. Like I been saying don't put too much in GE polls in April

 

[Madmick]

If you want to listen to polls

Clinton's lead on Trump has dropped over 4% in just the last month over Donald Trump. It's like things are changing the closer we get to November. Like I been saying don't put too much in GE polls in April

BID, thank you for the blatant trolling as a platform to use a pro-Trump thread to promulgate the truth which is precisely the opposite and very much anti-Trump. You are a handy tool at times.

 

[Culombo]

ge polls right now mean about as much as primary polls meant back in jul 15

 

[TheStruggle]

BID, thank you for the blatant trolling as a platform to use a pro-Trump thread to promulgate the truth which is precisely the opposite and very much anti-Trump. You are a handy tool at times.

Yes, I used a pro Trump thread to tell everyone that GE polls are useless at this point of the election season. You seems to be the only one here making the case that polls posted in January means that Trump is unelectable. Clinton fans truly have their heads shoved so far up their own asses you seems to be missing the point at every angle.

 

[Sycho Sid]

BID, thank you for the blatant trolling as a platform to use a pro-Trump thread to promulgate the truth which is precisely the opposite and very much anti-Trump. You are a handy tool at times.

Thanks for using promulgate. I learned a new word!