Trilogy fights (1-1) favor the person who won the second fight.

[SmoothPies]

I've had a theory since I watched the Gatti vs. Ward trilogy (one of the greatest in boxing history), that the third fight generally favors the winner of the second fight in a 1-1 trilogy. I compiled a list of well known trilogies in MMA and Boxing to see if there's enough data for statistical evidence

MMA:
GSP vs. Hughes: Hughes, GSP, GSP
Cruz vs. Faber: Faber, Cruz, Cruz
Cain vs. JDS: JDS, Cain, Cain
Chuck vs. Randy: Randy, Chuck, Chuck
Penn vs. Hughes: Penn, Hughes, Penn
Forrest vs. Ortiz: Ortiz, Forrest, Forrest
Melendez vs. Thomson: Thomson, Melendez, Melendez
Stout vs. Fisher: Stout, Fisher, Stout
Bas vs. Frank: Frank, Bas, Bas
Sylvia vs. Arlovski: Arlovski, Sylvia, Sylvia
Total third fight record: Second fight winner 8 - First fight winner - 2

I'm sure I missed some 1-1 trilogies here, so let me know.

Boxing:
Gatti-Ward: Ward, Gatti, Gatti
Michael Carbajal-Humberto Gonzalez: Carbajal, Gonzalez, Gonzalez
Ali vs. Norton: Norton, Ali, Ali
Patterson vs. Johansson: Johansson, Patterson, Patterson
Griffith vs. Benny Paret - Griffith, Paret, Griffith (Paret died in the ring unfortunately)
Barney Ross vs. Jimmy McLarnin - Ross, Mclarnin, Ross
Barerra vs. Morales - Morales, Barerra, Barerra
Zale vs. Graziano - Zale, Graziano, Zale
Ali vs. Frazier - Frazier, Ali, Ali
Leonard vs. Duran - Duran, Leonard, Leonard
Duran vs. De Jesus - De Jesus, Duran, Duran
McLarnin vs. Ross - Ross, McLarnin, Ross
Pacquiao vs. Morales - Morales, Pac, Pac
Vasquez vs. Marquez - Marquez, Vasquez, Vasquez
Total third fight record: Second fight winner 10 - First fight winner - 4

Total: 18-6 75% wins for the winner of the second fight


Why is this the case? There are a few reasons.

1. A "fluke"
Example: JDS KO'd Cain in the first fight, and people were wondering if it was a fluke, so they had a rematch to see. If JDS had won, there would have been no trilogy, and the "fluke" talk would have ended (see Rose vs. Joanna, TJ vs. Barao). However, Cain won decisively. After two fights, it seemed kind of clear that Cain was the better fighter and the first fight was a fluke. However, because JDS won the first fight, it was enough to warrant a third fight, which Cain won the same way he won the second fight. Domination and fluke verified.

2. Too young/too old
Example: Cruz vs. Faber. Cruz was very green when he fought Faber the first time. He hadn't really come into his own and developed the style that would carry him to being one of the best 135ers of all time. By the time they had their rematch 4 years later, Faber was already on the decline (though still extremely formidable). The third match was another 5 years later, and by then Cruz had been through several injuries, but still proved to be fresh and strong, and Faber had clearly declined by then.

3. Making the adjustment
Example: Chuck vs. Randy. In their first fight, Chuck underestimated Randy (especially his power in the clinch) in their first fight, and was gassed in grappling exchanges, eventually leading to being taken down, mounted, and TKO'd. In the rematch, there was controversy with the eye poke prior to the TKO, but it was clear that Chuck had made adjustments with keeping range and counter striking against Randy's aggression, which is what won him the third fight.

Do these things apply to Stipe vs. DC 3?

1. A "fluke" - The first fight's KO certainly had the feel of a fluke. Though the second fight didn't really do much to confirm the "fluke", as DC was holding his own in the second fight until the end. Still, there is still somewhat of a fluke feeling around the first fight, especially after Stipe's quick turnaround from fighting Francis Ngannou, and people speculating that his chin hadn't had ample time to recover. (I don't really understand the biology of all that, but whatever).

2. Too young/too old - Stipe certainly wasn't too young or green in their first fight. He had already established himself as a Heavyweight GOAT candidate. However, DC is fighting his final fight, and he is quite old with a lot of mileage on him. He took a LOT of damage in the second fight both to the head and the body. Though Stipe also got beat up pretty badly. I still see DC as fading in his career, and DC's age could be a major factor.

3. Making the adjustment - Interestingly, we saw the adjustment factor in during the fight. Stipe found DC's body which led to a fast and sharp decline in DC. That adjustment played a major role in Stipe's win. If DC has no answer for Stipe's body shots, it will be an ugly fight for DC.

I'm shocked that so many experts are picking DC to win the third fight. It could certainly happen, but all signs, in my mind, point to Stipe winning the trilogy.

I agree with you for the most part. Nice work on this post! Cool when someone puts the effort in to back up their theory

 

[Andrusz]

DC was winning, but they both took a tremendous amount of punishment in every round

Yes, I think DC was winning the fight but people act like it was some one sided beatdown is just ridiculous. Round 3 in particular is a lot closer than people insist.

Round 1 for sure is DC since he takes him down and controls Stipe for 3 mins on top.

Round 2 I give to DC since that is the infamous eye-poke round where he keeps doing his Frankenstein guard and putting his thumbs in Stipe's eyes. But it's a 10-9 round, nothing more.

And I would give Stipe round 3, he gets a TD and lands quite a bit. But if you have it to DC I wouldn't have really been too upset. It was a gimmie round.

But it was never at any point a domination.

 

[Hades86]

While I do believe Stipe is winning this trilogy. He was even winning the 1st fight before getting caught so imo Stipe is the way better fighter. I wanna see Jones/Stipe to be honest.

 

[Jinx_AA]

You make great points ....trilogies do more often favor the second winner

But it's by no means a given ....that second fight cormier was winning

If cormier had a gas tank he'd win ....but I think cormier has to win by knockout in the first 10 minutes or Stipe will repeat

 

[Cat Biscuits]

After two fights, it seemed kind of clear that Cain was the better fighter and the first fight was a fluke.

It was not a fluke. If you stand on the feet with JDS you risk being KO'd. It wasn't a blind punch that JDS landed. JDS threw that with precision and intention, and it won him the fight. Cain's mistake was not initiating a grappling exchange earlier.

Again, don't call it a fluke when it wasn't. Cain was the better fight, but JDS didn't win by accident the first time around.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

I'm shocked that so many experts are picking DC to win the third fight. It could certainly happen, but all signs, in my mind, point to Stipe winning the trilogy.

Great work on your OP. I'm cheering for Stipe but have a feeling DC takes this.

 

[Simple Southerner]

Solid thread ts

 

[Superzorro]

DC is winning this one. He KO’d Stipe and picked him apart already. Stipe has only shown the ability to catch DC late, when tired - which is something that can be fixed. Stipe didn’t prove to me in that last fight he can find consistent success against DC. He was just a punching bag that night

 

[Delerak]

Interesting.