Trilogy fights (1-1) favor the person who won the second fight.

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by DeeDubb, Aug 9, 2020.

  1. DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    I've had a theory since I watched the Gatti vs. Ward trilogy (one of the greatest in boxing history), that the third fight generally favors the winner of the second fight in a 1-1 trilogy. I compiled a list of well known trilogies in MMA and Boxing to see if there's enough data for statistical evidence

    MMA:
    GSP vs. Hughes: Hughes, GSP, GSP
    Cruz vs. Faber: Faber, Cruz, Cruz
    Cain vs. JDS: JDS, Cain, Cain
    Chuck vs. Randy: Randy, Chuck, Chuck

    Penn vs. Hughes: Penn, Hughes, Penn
    Forrest vs. Ortiz: Ortiz, Forrest, Forrest
    Melendez vs. Thomson: Thomson, Melendez, Melendez

    Stout vs. Fisher: Stout, Fisher, Stout
    Bas vs. Frank: Frank, Bas, Bas
    Sylvia vs. Arlovski: Arlovski, Sylvia, Sylvia

    Total third fight record: Second fight winner 8 - First fight winner - 2

    I'm sure I missed some 1-1 trilogies here, so let me know.

    Boxing:
    Gatti-Ward: Ward, Gatti, Gatti
    Michael Carbajal-Humberto Gonzalez: Carbajal, Gonzalez, Gonzalez
    Ali vs. Norton: Norton, Ali, Ali
    Patterson vs. Johansson: Johansson, Patterson, Patterson

    Griffith vs. Benny Paret - Griffith, Paret, Griffith (Paret died in the ring unfortunately)
    Barney Ross vs. Jimmy McLarnin - Ross, Mclarnin, Ross
    Barerra vs. Morales - Morales, Barerra, Barerra
    Zale vs. Graziano - Zale, Graziano, Zale
    Ali vs. Frazier - Frazier, Ali, Ali
    Leonard vs. Duran - Duran, Leonard, Leonard
    Duran vs. De Jesus - De Jesus, Duran, Duran

    McLarnin vs. Ross - Ross, McLarnin, Ross
    Pacquiao vs. Morales - Morales, Pac, Pac
    Vasquez vs. Marquez - Marquez, Vasquez, Vasquez
    Total third fight record: Second fight winner 10 - First fight winner - 4

    Total: 18-6 75% wins for the winner of the second fight


    Why is this the case? There are a few reasons.

    1. A "fluke"
    Example: JDS KO'd Cain in the first fight, and people were wondering if it was a fluke, so they had a rematch to see. If JDS had won, there would have been no trilogy, and the "fluke" talk would have ended (see Rose vs. Joanna, TJ vs. Barao). However, Cain won decisively. After two fights, it seemed kind of clear that Cain was the better fighter and the first fight was a fluke. However, because JDS won the first fight, it was enough to warrant a third fight, which Cain won the same way he won the second fight. Domination and fluke verified.

    2. Too young/too old
    Example: Cruz vs. Faber. Cruz was very green when he fought Faber the first time. He hadn't really come into his own and developed the style that would carry him to being one of the best 135ers of all time. By the time they had their rematch 4 years later, Faber was already on the decline (though still extremely formidable). The third match was another 5 years later, and by then Cruz had been through several injuries, but still proved to be fresh and strong, and Faber had clearly declined by then.

    3. Making the adjustment
    Example: Chuck vs. Randy. In their first fight, Chuck underestimated Randy (especially his power in the clinch) in their first fight, and was gassed in grappling exchanges, eventually leading to being taken down, mounted, and TKO'd. In the rematch, there was controversy with the eye poke prior to the TKO, but it was clear that Chuck had made adjustments with keeping range and counter striking against Randy's aggression, which is what won him the third fight.

    Do these things apply to Stipe vs. DC 3?

    1. A "fluke" - The first fight's KO certainly had the feel of a fluke. Though the second fight didn't really do much to confirm the "fluke", as DC was holding his own in the second fight until the end. Still, there is still somewhat of a fluke feeling around the first fight, especially after Stipe's quick turnaround from fighting Francis Ngannou, and people speculating that his chin hadn't had ample time to recover. (I don't really understand the biology of all that, but whatever).

    2. Too young/too old - Stipe certainly wasn't too young or green in their first fight. He had already established himself as a Heavyweight GOAT candidate. However, DC is fighting his final fight, and he is quite old with a lot of mileage on him. He took a LOT of damage in the second fight both to the head and the body. Though Stipe also got beat up pretty badly. I still see DC as fading in his career, and DC's age could be a major factor.

    3. Making the adjustment - Interestingly, we saw the adjustment factor in during the fight. Stipe found DC's body which led to a fast and sharp decline in DC. That adjustment played a major role in Stipe's win. If DC has no answer for Stipe's body shots, it will be an ugly fight for DC.

    I'm shocked that so many experts are picking DC to win the third fight. It could certainly happen, but all signs, in my mind, point to Stipe winning the trilogy.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
  2. DerKoenig Claimed LHW Title before Chael

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    Off topic, but Jesus the Ward-Gatti fights are good. Not even a boxing fan.
     
  3. Michael Scott Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    JDS vs Cain 1 was not a fluke

    Cain stood with JDS and learned quick that was a mistake. He made an adjustment and stuck to a game plan which found him success. Huge difference.

    The Tito/Forrest fights were all insanely close that could have went the other way. I thought Tito won the 3rd fight, he dropped Forrest twice and Forrest even left before the decision.
     
  4. giovanni002 ❤Bae Suzy Belt❤

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    Jacare vs Camozzi has to have a trilogy. Time to settle it once and for all
     
  5. Mammothman Silver Belt

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    wasn't he injured coming into that fight?
     
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  6. Michael Scott Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    They both were
     
  7. hohner Steel Belt

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    Not specific to this thread, but I used to see Micky Ward walking around Lowell all the time. Really nice guy.
     
  8. Pakman Steel Belt

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    how do you have a HW trilogy fight as the focal point of this thread and then fail to bring up Arlovski vs Sylvia
     
  9. mjfan23 Silver Belt

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    He’s mentioning modern bums not GOATs!
     
  10. HHJ Fedor Supremacist

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    I went to the boxing hall of fame in 2013 when Gatti (posthumously) and ward were inducted.
     
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  11. DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    Missed it. I searched for trilogies online for ones i couldn't remember, but they don't really include that one because it was kind of a dud. It's added now. Thanks.
     
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  12. Only Here for Attachments Stipe Justice Warrior

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    600-lb Cormier will need to be peeled off the mat with pulleys
     
  13. DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    The trilogy was fantasic. Round 9 of the first fight is probably the best round of action ever.

     
  14. AP_RESURRECTION Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Wanderlei rampage
     
  15. DeeDubb Gracie Online Black Belt

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    Wanderlei was up 2-0 going into the third fight.
     
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  16. Talon81 Brown Belt

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    You do raise some good points, and made a reasonable analysis overall of trilogies. However, you made two mistakes in analyzing this fight as I see it.

    Frankly, DC was sonning Stipe in that fight, he was not "holding his own". Until the body shots that changed the course of that fight, DC was CLEARLY winning and landing almost at will. The fact that Stipe had not already been KO'd after all the shots he took was always surprising to me.
    Then there is the matter of your own point: 3. Making the adjustment
    Why would this only apply to Stipe? Is it impossible for DC to make an adjustment against Stipe's body shots, which are the only reason they are not 2-0 right now? I see these odds as being very accurate, with DC the very slightest of favorites, but pretty much a pickem. I'm not saying DC wins this by any means, but you have to look at the second fight truthfully. DC was pretty clearly going to win before those body shots changed it up. Now the question is whether DC can properly defend them or does Stipe make this a continuation of their last round?
     
  17. leatherneck https://www.facebook.com/marriottleatherneck/

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    i think its a "quadrogy".

    (and AA was robbed).
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
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  18. Bangkok ready d1 Brown Belt

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    Well anyway flukes don't exist, all there is are fighters being better at a certain night
     
  19. MMAudit Green Belt

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    most certainly was !!

    Cains knee was fucked

    and given this was the first live fox card

    this is well known facts
     
  20. TriangleMonkey Red Belt

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    As DC fan this doesnt sound very good

    So he has like a 1 in 4 chance of taking out Stipe once again?
     
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