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News Titanic Tours Submersible missing in atlantic ocean

BisexualMMA said:
We have come a long way in protocols and methodology. You had to be a daredevil of sorts to achieve some of those things back in the day. That is not the case with underwater exploration in 2023...unless someone personally insists on injecting undue risk into the equation.

Stockton Rush had the received wisdom of decades of this field at his disposal.

He can test his unclassed carbon fiber ostrich egg all he wants...with either nobody in it or just himself. Selling tickets to people to play Russian roulette is not the same spirit as what got us out of caves.

The entire industry was telling this guy to stop fucking around. Instead he went and patented his "early carbon fiber compromise detection" system and stuck it all over this floating grenade. So it could let him know he was fucked one second before he was turned into mush.

By all means go and test your carbon fiber stuff. Don't test it with a teenager inside.

This guy wasn't a visionary maverick. He was a fucking asshole.
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You could say the same about most innovators. Rush didn't want to take the advice he was given like many inventors. Some were successful but most failed. Rush had the Titan built and tested it. He had already tested it on 13 previous successful dives which gave him the confidence to believe it was safe when it was headed for disaster. There were supposedly devices to measure stress in the hull. Proper testing of a pressure vessel would involve taking it to a depth beyond it's designed limit. Look at how many times the Space Shuttle flew before it had a problem.

Look at all of the people who died as paying passengers on the Titanic because it's designers had enough confidence in it's design to call it unsinkable and it's owners wanted to set a crossing record. Many paying tourists have died on airplane flights as paying passengers. Many more have died in automobiles crashes. The I-35 bridge over the Mississippi River carried 160,000 vehicles per day for 40 years. When it collapsed is was found that a design miscalculation caused the bridged to be built with gusset plates too thin for the load. 13 people died in that collapse.
 
BisexualMMA said:
Stockton Rush's Titan was probably never at any point fit for purpose. Almost certainly with no engineering margin to spare. It survived going up and down a handful of times before experiencing its inevitable fate.

We don't design 747s to just barely be able to take off and barely be able to fly. To the point where it is constantly at risk of nosediving and exploding the second it leaves the ground. That's what the Titan was. This thing was flirting with oblivion most of the time it was in the water.
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I don't think that's entirely fair. The 20-30 dives it made successfully were no fluke. The design generally worked. Where they really fucked up, was maintenance and testing for fatigue. They didn't account for the wear and tear that having 9 gillion pounds of pressure can do to a sub on each dive. They probably had a mindset that if it doesn't fail, then it's fine. It's just water, right?

The whole thing is strange, because it's not like he was just duping ignorant rubes to take trips with the thing. Two of the five victims were experts themselves, or at the very least should've had knowledge enough to be cautious. That's the weird thing about it. That so many people in the know, trusted it. All you hear now is how the entire community thought they were clowns, but that can't be the entire truth, considering he was taking people within that community down with him...routinely.

Gotta say though, having the "hull failure" warning system was something else. I'm no expert, but I have a feeling that if that thing tells you that the hull is failing, it's already too late. It's not like "The Abyss", where they go one big crack at a time. If it's cracking, you're fucked. I hear that's the theory on this. They got the "you're fucked" warning and hit the emergency surface button, which momentarily enhanced the pressure and destroyed it.
 
HereticBD said:
I don't think that's entirely fair. The 20-30 dives it made successfully were no fluke. The design generally worked. Where they really fucked up, was maintenance and testing for fatigue. They didn't account for the wear and tear that having 9 gillion pounds of pressure can do to a sub on each dive. They probably had a mindset that if it doesn't fail, then it's fine. It's just water, right?

The whole thing is strange, because it's not like he was just duping ignorant rubes to take trips with the thing. Two of the five victims were experts themselves, or at the very least should've had knowledge enough to be cautious. That's the weird thing about it. That so many people in the know, trusted it. All you hear now is how the entire community thought they were clowns, but that can't be the entire truth, considering he was taking people within that community down with him...routinely.

Gotta say though, having the "hull failure" warning system was something else. I'm no expert, but I have a feeling that if that thing tells you that the hull is failing, it's already too late. It's not like "The Abyss", where they go one big crack at a time. If it's cracking, you're fucked. I hear that's the theory on this. They got the "you're fucked" warning and hit the emergency surface button, which momentarily enhanced the pressure and destroyed it.
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It seems successfully designed to have been able to make the trip...a number of times, but such a small number of times that this thing might have to be called disposable.

The design generally worked...it worked the way a condom works. You're probably good to go once. You might even be able to re-use it ten or twenty times if you're really committed to that "innovative" mindset. But you keep going to pound town with that thing and I guarantee you a trip to Maury Povich.

Yeah there were some people on there that weren't deep water noobs. But once you see Stockton go up and down in that thing five times...sure the sixth time seems safe. They all seem safe...actually even more safe as the number goes up...until you hit failure with the materials and it's Jimmy Shaker Day.

You can play catch in the back yard with an egg. You might well throw it back and forth twenty times successfully with no incident. But that doesn't mean you wouldn't be better off using a baseball.
 
HereticBD said:
I don't think that's entirely fair. The 20-30 dives it made successfully were no fluke. The design generally worked. Where they really fucked up, was maintenance and testing for fatigue. They didn't account for the wear and tear that having 9 gillion pounds of pressure can do to a sub on each dive. They probably had a mindset that if it doesn't fail, then it's fine. It's just water, right?

The whole thing is strange, because it's not like he was just duping ignorant rubes to take trips with the thing. Two of the five victims were experts themselves, or at the very least should've had knowledge enough to be cautious. That's the weird thing about it. That so many people in the know, trusted it. All you hear now is how the entire community thought they were clowns, but that can't be the entire truth, considering he was taking people within that community down with him...routinely.

Gotta say though, having the "hull failure" warning system was something else. I'm no expert, but I have a feeling that if that thing tells you that the hull is failing, it's already too late. It's not like "The Abyss", where they go one big crack at a time. If it's cracking, you're fucked. I hear that's the theory on this. They got the "you're fucked" warning and hit the emergency surface button, which momentarily enhanced the pressure and destroyed it.
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Where are you getting 20-30 dives? As far as I know, this was the fifth “mission” to the titanic. It made test dives, but at shallower depths. It wasn’t designed well enough to withstand those Titanic wreck pressures, it was a pos design by almost every expert opinion. It is documented in the email exchanges with Rush.

I was also surprised that this Nargeolet guy who was some badass diver was duped into getting in there. The thing is, the more technology advances, the narrower expertise becomes. So these days a cardiologist might be led to believe some BS about genetics by some expert, or someone from NASA might be led to believe this thing was safe, because subs aren’t in their wheelhouse. It seems like no professional sub design firm thought this was a good idea. The diver might’ve gone to the Titanic 33 times, but he probably wasn’t well versed enough on the engineering and materials science to understand the ins and outs of the design.

I also think this Stockton guy must’ve been a very persuasive and charismatic salesman. It happens surprisingly often, like how Madoff was able to scam billions out of people, including some well-informed investors, or companies like Theranos raised a billion dollars before investors realized it was trash. The difference is Rush truly believed in his products and was willing to die with them, so he wasn’t scamming people forthright. However based on the currently available information, the thing was almost complete bullshit when it came to going that deep; bound to fail sooner than later, and only lasted 4 or 5 trips at that depth.
 
Volador said:
Where are you getting 20-30 dives? As far as I know, this was the fifth “mission” to the titanic. It made test dives, but at shallower depths. It wasn’t designed well enough to withstand those Titanic wreck pressures, it was a pos design by almost every expert opinion. It is documented in the email exchanges with Rush.
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I've heard conflicting reports. I've heard 5 or so "official" dives with guests, but I've also heard they went down a bunch for testing. Now he could've been full of shit, but I believe Rush is also on record saying he's been down there at least 20 times. I guess we'll find out eventually what was real and what was bullshit, as the investigation proceeds.

I was also surprised that this Nargeolet guy who was some badass diver was duped into getting in there. The thing is, the more technology advances, the narrower expertise becomes. So these days a cardiologist might be led to believe some BS about genetics by some expert, or someone from NASA might be led to believe this thing was safe, because subs aren’t in their wheelhouse. It seems like no professional sub design firm thought this was a good idea. The diver might’ve gone to the Titanic 33 times, but he probably wasn’t well versed enough on the engineering and materials science to understand the ins and outs of the design.
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He was also like a thousand years old, so maybe he just didn't give a fuck about the risk.

I also think this Stockton guy must’ve been a very persuasive and charismatic salesman. It happens surprisingly often, like how Madoff was able to scam billions out of people, including some well-informed investors, or companies like Theranos raised a billion dollars before investors realized it was trash. The difference is Rush truly believed in his products and was willing to die with them, so he wasn’t scamming people forthright. However based on the currently available information, the thing was almost complete bullshit when it came to going that deep; bound to fail sooner than later, and only lasted 4 or 5 trips at that depth.
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I think he could've definitely swindled some investment money, but peoples lives? I don't know. I have to figure that even if subs weren't their main field of expertise, that they would still have enough knowledge to know what a bad design is, if they were experienced deep sea explorers. Were they also ignoring all of the other outlets that they've probably worked with in the past, telling them that it was a death trap? Seems unlikely that guys as experienced as some of them were, would be so reckless as to trust this one renegade engineer's word, over the entire field telling them it's a piece of shit.

Not trying to defend Ocean Gate or anything. I just find it fascinating that so many people in the know, took the dive, even though it was supposedly this horrendously amateur operation, that "everyone" knew was a death trap.
 
ralphc1 said:
You could say the same about most innovators. Rush didn't want to take the advice he was given like many inventors. Some were successful but most failed. Rush had the Titan built and tested it. He had already tested it on 13 previous successful dives which gave him the confidence to believe it was safe when it was headed for disaster. There were supposedly devices to measure stress in the hull. Proper testing of a pressure vessel would involve taking it to a depth beyond it's designed limit. Look at how many times the Space Shuttle flew before it had a problem.

Look at all of the people who died as paying passengers on the Titanic because it's designers had enough confidence in it's design to call it unsinkable and it's owners wanted to set a crossing record. Many paying tourists have died on airplane flights as paying passengers. Many more have died in automobiles crashes. The I-35 bridge over the Mississippi River carried 160,000 vehicles per day for 40 years. When it collapsed is was found that a design miscalculation caused the bridged to be built with gusset plates too thin for the load. 13 people died in that collapse.
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The deep submersible vehicle (DSV) called "Limiting Factor" that Victor Vescovo commissioned and piloted to the deepest point in all 5 of the oceans was pressure tested in the only facility in the world that can pressure test such a large object to 6000 PSI, a facility in St. Petersburg Russia. The DSV reported cost $50 million. It's titanium single occupant crew compartant was forged up here in the northern MidWest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Vescovo
 
HereticBD said:
I've heard conflicting reports. I've heard 5 or so "official" dives with guests, but I've also heard they went down a bunch for testing. Now he could've been full of shit, but I believe Rush is also on record saying he's been down there at least 20 times. I guess we'll find out eventually what was real and what was bullshit, as the investigation proceeds.
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I mentioned 5 visits in an earlier post because that is waht I read and heard on news on YT. One article I read - whe 5 was the number given - now doesn't say it. The Dail Mail says 10 or 11 dives but it's the Mail so who knows.
 
MicroBrew said:
The deep submersible vehicle (DSV) called "Limiting Factor" that Victor Vescovo commissioned and piloted to the deepest point in all 5 of the oceans was pressure tested in the only facility in the world that can pressure test such a large object to 6000 PSI, a facility in St. Petersburg Russia. The DSV reported cost $50 million. It's titanium single occupant crew compartant was forged up here in the northern MidWest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Vescovo
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It holds two people
 
The more I read about this thing it’s was just a flat failure
 
Bojka said:
The people who design these things are 50 year old white men who have been working in this capacity full time for their entire adult lives. They also have a particular aptitude for it.

Perhaps I minimized Cameron's role. I looked it up and he did have some say in how the cockpit was designed. I guess he was making movies down there and he had to inform them on what was necessary in that regard. But there is absolutely no way he was advising the Australian engineering firm he hired on what to do. He wouldn't have been dumb enough to get in the thing if he did.
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The guy is more scientifically literate than you're giving him credit for. At one point, he was a physics major before dropping out of college. He probably understands engineering at the very least in a broad sense.
 
Cariñito said:
Nobody knows, but this guy might've just popped open the door or someshit down there and went "Fuck you fuckers, show ends here" and then just imploded it himself.
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Good luck popping open the door vs. the force exerted on it at those depths...
 
MicroBrew said:
The deep submersible vehicle (DSV) called "Limiting Factor" that Victor Vescovo commissioned and piloted to the deepest point in all 5 of the oceans was pressure tested in the only facility in the world that can pressure test such a large object to 6000 PSI, a facility in St. Petersburg Russia. The DSV reported cost $50 million. It's titanium single occupant crew compartant was forged up here in the northern MidWest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Vescovo
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6,000 PSI is less than half of the 15,750 PSI pressure at the bottom of the Challenger Deep. It's about the pressure at the depth of the Titanic.

I originally heard that they were 1-1/2 hours into the dive and it takes 2 hours to get down to 12,500 feet. Yesterday I saw a timeline that said the dive started at 9 AM and they lost contact at 11.45 AM. There may be some confusion because of time zones. Today I'm seeing this timeline.
The five-person crew was dropped into the ocean in their 22-foot long submersible vessel, the Titan, around 8am EST the submersible was launched, according to the US Coast Guard

One hour and 45 minutes later, the vessel lost contact with the Polar Prince.

The vessel was programmed to send out a “ping” every 15 minutes to indicate its location. The final signal was sent at around 10am ET, according to The Times.
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8 to 10 is two hours. If the pings come at 15 minute intervals they wouldn't expect the next one until 10:15 so it would have been between that ping and the time for the next ping. That would mean they were probably down to full depth. I thought each ping was encoded with the subs depth. At some point, it should be sorted out, not that it really matters.

The Hydraulic Press Channel did this video 10 months ago on 3D printed Titanium model submarines in a water pressure chamber.
 
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