These Are the Most Serious Catastrophic Threats Faced by Humanity

[John Wang]

Oxford’s Global Priorities Project has compiled a list of catastrophes—both natural and self-inflicted—that could kill off 10 percent or more of the human population. It’s a real buzzkill of a report and it says that any of these catastrophes could happen within the next five years.

Titled “Global Catastrophic Risks 2016,” the report ranks the most dangerous threats facing our civilization according to probability. The likeliest risks include nuclear war and pandemics (both natural and deliberately engineered), followed by disasters stemming from runaway climate change, geoengineering run amok, and disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. The report also included low-probability—but high impact—events, like asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions.

The Global Priorities Project defines a global catastrophic risk as “events or processes that would lead to the deaths of approximately a tenth of the world’s population, or have a comparable impact.” These hazards are qualitatively distinct from existential risks, which are severe enough to wipe out allhumans. Though not as apocalyptic, catastrophic risks are still grave events with serious global consequences. In the new report, researcher Sebastian Farquhar and colleagues warn that some of these perils are more likely than we realize, and that governments aren’t doing what’s necessary to mitigate the risks, or plan for their outcome.


Global catastrophic risks are exceptionally rare, but they do happen. For example, the Justinian Plague of 541-542 AD killed as many as 17 percent of the world’s population. More recently, the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 killed an estimated 10 percent of the world’s population, which exceeded the entire death toll of the Great War that preceded it. These events are unlikely in any given decade, which probably explains why they tend to receive limited attention.

“But even when the probability is low, the sheer magnitude of an adverse outcome warrants taking these risks seriously,” write the authors. “A global catastrophic risk not only threatens everyone alive today, but also future generations. Reducing these risks is therefore both a global and an intergenerational public good.”

Asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions made the list, but were ranked low in terms of likelihood. Other low probability events included catastrophic climate change, catastrophic disruption from artificial intelligence, and ageoengineering disaster. Pressing threats included a natural pandemic, nuclear war, and a deliberately engineered pandemic.

Looking at these rankings, the researchers got it (mostly) right, but the odds of an asteroid impact or supervolcanic eruptions is exceedingly small, and almost not worthy of consideration (e.g. the odds of an asteroid striking the Earth is about 1 in 1,250 for each century, while supervolcanoes erupt about once every 30,000-50,000 years).

The risks posed by AI are probably overstated within the five-year time frame, but it’s something we should most certainly be concerned about. Likewise, a climate change catastrophe also seems unlikely within the next five years.

On the other hand, natural and human-made pandemics are definitely high-risk, high-probability events; our globalized civilization is spreading diseases faster than ever before, and our biotechnologies are making it possible to weaponize pathogens (e.g. mutating the H5N1 influenza virus to be human transmissible). Technologies like CRISPR—a powerful, cheap, and easy-to-use gene editing tool—greatly heighten the chance that a nefarious group, like Islamic State, would do such a horrible thing.

To deal with these looming problems, the authors propose a number of solutions, including nuclear non-proliferation treaties, increased planning for serious pandemics, efforts to reduce carbon emissions, and investigations into risks posed by AI and biotechnologies.


Source:
http://gizmodo.com/these-are-the-most-serious-catastrophic-threats-faced-b-1773661869

 

[frenz]

engineered pandemic ? like resident evil? fark

 

[John Wang]

engineered pandemic ? like resident evil? fark

We aren't going to make it, brahs

 

[John Wang]

Someone mentioned in the comments of the article that it surprised them that a solar flare isn't listed in this.. Do you think it should?

 

[weed]

engineered pandemic ? like resident evil? fark

nah, they talking about that fire them Barksdale nickels be selling at the Towers.

 

[Thai Domi]

 

[AgentSmecker]

Only 10%. Deeply disappointing.

 

[John Wang]

I've always loved that intro

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

Anyone who dismisses Global Warming casually would do well to study Venus, its history and atmosphere.
That could happen here if we ignore the issue or let politicians with agendas fool us into thinking it can't.

 

[John Wang]

Anyone who dismisses Global Warming casually would do well to study Venus, its history and atmosphere.
That could happen here if we ignore the issue or let politicians with agendas fool us into thinking it can't.

I think most people don't care right now because it will not affect us as much as those down the line... we're basically saying "fuck our future generations"

 

[2DUM2TAP]

Better work on your cardio. The first to go in the Zombie apocalypse will be the fatties.

 

[ehtheist]

 

[John Wang]

Better work on your cardio. The first to go in the Zombie apocalypse will be the fatties.

Just reminded me how much I love Zombie Land. Wish they'd make a second one

 

[John Wang]

You in the wrong thread, boyo.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

Someone mentioned in the comments of the article that it surprised them that a solar flare isn't listed in this.. Do you think it should?

No.
Our atmosphere protects us for the most part, our magnetic field diverts most of the nasty energetic particles.
Solar activity can be discounted, we are fortunate to have a pretty boring star.

 

[ehtheist]

You in the wrong thread, boyo.

This is a thread about threats to humanity, right?

 

[John Wang]

This is a thread about threats to humanity, right?

LOL touche. You almost triggered me.

 

[Primitivo]

Most serious catastrophe by and to humanity is countries bending over to their social justice warriors' nonsense.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

I think most people don't care right now because it will not affect us as much as those down the line... we're basically saying "fuck our future generations"

Basically.
We're really going to be indebted to the scientists that are making noise about the problem now, because there's a "tipping point" when it will be too late to do anything about it; when stopping the use of fossil fuels completely won't make a difference because we've already reached the stage where the problem is irreversible.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

Most serious catastrophe by and to humanity, is countries bending over to their social justice warriors' nonsense.

I don't think you know what the word catastrophe means, young padawan