The wrong industry to be in...

[RhinoRush]

I don't feel bad for the taxi drivers. They did a shitty job for years.

 

[Cheese]

DVD Makers. Digital is the future

 

[Fraz]

MMA Fighter since the sport is dying

 

[ralphc1]

Truck drivers are going to be hit hard in the next 5 to 10 years. Self driving semi trucks will replace almost all of those workers. That's going to hit a couple million people hard.

It will likely take much longer than that to get it perfected. Self driving cars will be first.

 

[Deleted member 220895]

Spoon racks for collectable owners. All the spoon collectors are dying.

 

[Oblivian]

Retail
Newspaper

 

[weich]

It will likely take much longer than that to get it perfected. Self driving cars will be first.

There is a lot of money to be saved by having autonomous truck drivers. A lot of large companies are throwing big money into the project:

ITH THE LIKES of Daimler, Volvo, and Uber working on self-driving trucks, it’s no surprise that the granddaddy of autonomous vehicles, Waymo, is getting in on the big-rig action too. Waymo (formerly the Google driverless car program, and now a standalone company under the Alphabet umbrella) is working to commercialize its technology, and today confirmed it's exploring how its self-driving know-how can transform the trucking industry.

Source

A lot of estimates say these trucks will be on the road in the next 5 to 10 years:

The International Transport Forum, a global think tank with 57 member countries, underscores the potential disruption. Researchers found automated trucks could reduce the demand for drivers as much as 50 to 70 percent in the U.S. and Europe by 2030

Source

From MIT's Technology Review:

Tractor-trailers without a human at the wheel will soon barrel onto highways near you. What will this mean for the nation’s 1.7 million truck drivers?

Availability: 5 to 10 years

Source

“We could see the first autonomous trucks probably around 2025, where we accept that there doesn’t need to be a driver. And by 2030, I’m guessing it’s game over for truck drivers.”

Source

 

[ralphc1]

There is a lot of money to be saved by having autonomous truck drivers. A lot of large companies are throwing big money into the project:



Source

A lot of estimates say these trucks will be on the road in the next 5 to 10 years:



Source

From MIT's Technology Review:


Source




Source

Everybody involved always underestimates the amount of time it will take. It will take 20 years to get enough of the trucks built to replace the current fleets.

 

[weich]

Everybody involved always underestimates the amount of time it will take. It will take 20 years to get enough of the trucks built to replace the current fleets.

What are you basing that on?

 

[Only Here for Attachments]

Primary education

 

[AGGAMEMNON66]

UFC..

 

[Organic Damage]

Basically any industry that doesn't involve programming computers or servicing them is going to be the wrong industry in a few decades.

 

[ralphc1]

What are you basing that on?

The amount of trucks that can be built in a year. In 2016 there were 268,100 heavy trucks built.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/412815/heavy-truck-production-in-the-united-states/

The trucking industry is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. Over 70% of all the freight tonnage moved in the U.S. goes on trucks. Without the industry and our truck drivers, the economy would come to a standstill. To move 10.5 billion tons of freight annually requires over 3.4 million heavy-duty Class 8 trucks and over 3.5 million truck drivers. It also takes over 38 billion gallons of diesel fuel to move all of that freight. Simply – without trucks, America stops.

http://www.trucking.org/News_and_Information_Reports_Industry_Data.aspx

3.4 million trucks would take 12.6 years to replace if every vehicle built was a self driving vehicle. Assuming the technology and approvals will be available in 10 years and they could ramp up production in that time, it would take 20 years total.

 

[cooks1]

With regard to taxi use being up everywhere. That simply isn't true:

Example 1: The L.A. Times reports that in the three years since ridesharing services Uber and Lyft became available in the city, overall trips by conventional taxi have fallen by nearly 30%. Trips dropped from 8.4 million in 2012 to a little over 6 million in 2015.

Source

Example 2: As Uber and Lyft grow in the city, the number of cab rides have plummeted by 23 percent in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2015, city data shows.

Source

Example 3:
ccording to a report by Morgan Stanley (MS, +0.04%) shared by Recode, there were 11.1 million taxi trips in April, compared with 4.7 million Uber trips. Rival ride-hailing company Lyft provided about 750,000 trips during the month.


Those 11.1 million taxi rides represent a 9% drop from a year earlier, however, as Uber's rose 121%. Taxi drivers gave twice as many rides per week as Uber drivers with 91 vs. 44 respectively, according to the research.

Source

It's factually incorrect to state that taxi rides are up everywhere. Here are three major American cities that have seen big drops in taxi rides due to ride sharing. The second and third sources are from 2016. I would expect more drops from 2016 to 2017, and more from 2017 to 2018.

I love that you put such a positive spin on the impact to taxis. It amounts to cab drivers having to work two jobs to make up for their lost income.

I also disagree that TV and computer repair places are going to thrive. That isn't going to happen, IMO. Computers and TVs are so cheap that replacing a damaged/defective TV or PC is more attractive than repairing it.

You also act like the refurbishment industry, as you put it, "The companies that succeed though are going to be the ones that realize the full value of the repair. They will buy they used or damaged product, fix it, and resell it." is a new idea. It isn't. It's been around forever and it's not going to hit some economic boom in the future. It will remain a niche industry the way it's been.

So you are saying the taxi business is down due to Uber and Lyft? Ok. I can sign on to that. Uber and Lyft are just rebranded taxi services. When you 'call an uber' you are getting the same thing you used to get when you called a taxi. You call someone. They take you somewhere. You give them money. If you look at the TOTAL sales of 'traditional' taxi companies, Uber, and Lyft, I bet you will find it is up. Uber and Lyft and the companies that follow are merely the evolution of the taxi business.

As to the poor taxi drivers, I have the same sympathy for them that I would have had for horse carriage salesmen around the time cars were getting mass produced.

And I never suggested that the concept of buying damaged electronics, fixing them, and selling them was some new concept. Nor did I suggest that computer and/or TV repair places as they exist today are going to thrive. I said the industry would. As always with technology, people and companies will have to adapt. If you look at the small retail computer and TV repair places that are predominantly the ones struggling, most of them are only geared to repairs. They will need to adapt. Because as the price of the product they are fixing lowers, so to does their value proposition in it's current form.

But if you look at the aggregate, the big picture, there are more TV's and computers being made and sold, not less. And there are more in need of refurbishment, repair, recycling, not less.

 

[weich]

So you are saying the taxi business is down due to Uber and Lyft? Ok. I can sign on to that. Uber and Lyft are just rebranded taxi services. When you 'call an uber' you are getting the same thing you used to get when you called a taxi. You call someone. They take you somewhere. You give them money. If you look at the TOTAL sales of 'traditional' taxi companies, Uber, and Lyft, I bet you will find it is up. Uber and Lyft and the companies that follow are merely the evolution of the taxi business.

Yes, taxi business is down significantly. For the purposes of this thread there is a distinction, and traditional cab drivers are taking a big hit.

And I never suggested that the concept of buying damaged electronics, fixing them, and selling them was some new concept. Nor did I suggest that computer and/or TV repair places as they exist today are going to thrive. I said the industry would.

Which industry? The manufacturing of computers and TVs? Or the industry devoted to refurbishment, repair, and recycling?

I don't doubt that electronics manufacturers will thrive. I do doubt that the repair/refurbishment/recycle will thrive.

there are more TV's and computers being made and sold, not less. And there are more in need of refurbishment, repair, recycling, not less.

I do not agree with this logic. Televisions and computers have become cheap enough that I think a lot of them are thrown away as opposed to refurbished, repaired, or recycled.

 

[Fedorgasm]

Everybody involved always underestimates the amount of time it will take. It will take 20 years to get enough of the trucks built to replace the current fleets.

Yup I agree, and it will take that long for the public to accept it as well. Even after the trucks drive themselves, they'll have to have a driver in the seat ready to take over in case the machine goes haywire. It will probably be another 10 years before people accept the fact that the machine is safer than the human.

Unless terrorists hack into all the trucks in the country and make them all crash at once.... That will be the end of driverless trucks.


Basically. if you're a 45 year old truck driver, you'll be fine. However, if you're a 20 year old who's thinking about getting a trucker license, don't bother.

 

[weich]

The amount of trucks that can be built in a year. In 2016 there were 268,100 heavy trucks built.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/412815/heavy-truck-production-in-the-united-states/

The amount of trucks that can be built in a year. In 2016 there were 268,100 heavy trucks built.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/412815/heavy-truck-production-in-the-united-states/


http://www.trucking.org/News_and_Information_Reports_Industry_Data.aspx

3.4 million trucks would take 12.6 years to replace if every vehicle built was a self driving vehicle. Assuming the technology and approvals will be available in 10 years and they could ramp up production in that time, it would take 20 years total.

http://www.trucking.org/News_and_Information_Reports_Industry_Data.aspx

3.4 million trucks would take 12.6 years to replace if every vehicle built was a self driving vehicle. Assuming the technology and approvals will be available in 10 years and they could ramp up production in that time, it would take 20 years total.

So you are assuming that all self driving trucks will have to be manufactured from scratch, and that all manufacturers will keep their production levels at their current rate.

I think those assumptions are incorrect.

Otto is working on a drop in retrofit for 30K:

That's why a new startup is developing a $30,000 kit that can make any truck built since 2013 autonomous.

Source

WRT manufacturing capacity, I think we need to consider manufacturing outside of the United States, as well as the likelihood that companies will increase production to meet demand.

 

[Scott Parker 27]

PR0N, everyone gets it for free now....

 

[HunterAcosta]

So it would be more reasonable to quit our jobs, go on government subsidies, and live in some ghetto?

Basically. There will be nothing "reasonable" about it . It will be forced on us . Unless you're one of the few needed jobs ( mostly tech jobs). Ironically those who despise welfare will possibly be on it in the future ....if they're lucky .

 

[ROKKO]

Rental car industry

Why buy and maintain when uber is around.