The War Room Bet Thread

[Cubo de Sangre]

@Lead,

I'm challenging @Jack V Savage to substantiate his claim that I didn't honor a bet we made. It was made via PM and there's a rule about quoting those in public forums. I'm pretty sure the rules state mods can look at PMs. Wanna settle this for me?

Here's the backstory. Like a year and a half ago he and I began arguing about this in a thread where I said the emails would ruin her campaign and she'd be luck to avoid jail. Jack disagreed and said nothing to see here and right-wing conspiracy. Eventually this lead to a bet that amounted to me saying the FBI would recommend charges and him saying they wouldn't. Loser had to pull up the initial thread and issue an apology to the other for being wrong. When Comey said no charges I spent the better part of an hour looking for the old thread and eventually concluded it got corrupted in the forum changeover. So I did the next best thing and issued an apology in the thread announcing the FBI's decision.

As far as I'm concerned that's all there is to it. Jack seems to disagree. Not because of where the apology was posted, but because he feels my apology didn't satisfy the terms. How about he PMs you whatever he thinks his case is, you get my rebuttal, then make a decision? Maybe another round of rebuttal if need be.

I'm willing to wager an apology on this, plus reissuing one more satisfactory if I lose. If he loses he can find every thread he's accused me of welshing in and apologize. That should be at least four separate threads I believe.

Interesting to note the investigation is back on, but I don't want that to complicate this particular matter.

 

[Lead]

Wait, I'd like to propose one small change. The site is linked to John Stossel, and I think he is a dishonest hack. The current numbers look in line with legitimate stuff, but I'd prefer that we use Bovada, RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/us_presidential_election_live_betting_odds.html), Paddy Power, or some other politically unaffiliated site. Obviously, we'd adjust for the vig if we use a site that's actually taking bets.

That's just a preference, but if Viva wants to be a dick and hold firm, I'll take Stossel's site.

I also have a permanent AV bet with Lucas about whether Clinton will be indicted in the next 60 days (lol).



You know the issue with that.

@VivaRevolution , where you at? Can we get closure on making this official

 

[Lead]

@Lead,

I'm challenging @Jack V Savage to substantiate his claim that I didn't honor a bet we made. It was made via PM and there's a rule about quoting those in public forums. I'm pretty sure the rules state mods can look at PMs. Wanna settle this for me?

Here's the backstory. Like a year and a half ago he and I began arguing about this in a thread where I said the emails would ruin her campaign and she'd be luck to avoid jail. Jack disagreed and said nothing to see here and right-wing conspiracy. Eventually this lead to a bet that amounted to me saying the FBI would recommend charges and him saying they wouldn't. Loser had to pull up the initial thread and issue an apology to the other for being wrong. When Comey said no charges I spent the better part of an hour looking for the old thread and eventually concluded it got corrupted in the forum changeover. So I did the next best thing and issued an apology in the thread announcing the FBI's decision.

As far as I'm concerned that's all there is to it. Jack seems to disagree. Not because of where the apology was posted, but because he feels my apology didn't satisfy the terms. How about he PMs you whatever he thinks his case is, you get my rebuttal, then make a decision? Maybe another round of rebuttal if need be.

I'm willing to wager an apology on this, plus reissuing one more satisfactory if I lose. If he loses he can find every thread he's accused me of welshing in and apologize. That should be at least four separate threads I believe.

Interesting to note the investigation is back on, but I don't want that to complicate this particular matter.

This is why a bet thread to make things official is your best path going forward. I can't look into your prior matter but encourage you to use this going forward so if the person doesn't uphold something, it's plain as day what occurred.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

This is why a bet thread to make things official is your best path going forward. I can't look into your prior matter but encourage you to use this going forward so if the person doesn't uphold something, it's plain as day what occurred.

But I am making a current bet in the bet thread. Are you saying mods aren't allowed to see PMs?

 

[Limbo Pete]

But I am making a current bet in the bet thread. Are you saying mods aren't allowed to see PMs?

Alright I can't resist

Spoiler

@Fawlty

 

[Fawlty]

Alright I can't resist

Spoiler

@Fawlty

I only looked at RRs ffs. You were collateral damage. I'm sorry.

Also:

"The polls are rigged! Trump is really winning!"

"Okay, let's bet. Even odds."

"Even odds? Have you seen the fucking polls?!"

 

[Limbo Pete]

I only looked at RRs ffs. You were collateral damage. I'm sorry.

Not a shot at you lol

Wait wat

 

[Lead]

But I am making a current bet in the bet thread. Are you saying mods aren't allowed to see PMs?

I can't comment on that. Maybe ask another WR mod. What's the current bet? I started drinking an hour ago. Sorry

 

[Fawlty]

Not a shot at you lol

Wait wat

Uh

That goddamn Ryan, I tell ya!

*runs*

 

[Rico]

Uh

That goddamn Ryan, I tell ya!

*runs*

It was really hard not to tbh

 

[Jack V Savage]

This is why a bet thread to make things official is your best path going forward. I can't look into your prior matter but encourage you to use this going forward so if the person doesn't uphold something, it's plain as day what occurred.

I'd be down for Cubo's thing, but his whole approach here is really immature, IMO, and I think if he'd read over the evidence himself with a cool head, he'd be reasonable enough to see I'm right.

 

[Lead]

I'd be down for Cubo's thing, but his whole approach here is really immature, IMO, and I think if he'd read over the evidence himself with a cool head, he'd be reasonable enough to see I'm right.

I think you guys should ask a different mod if you want to pursue it. I don't think you can get a clear winner in the situation and it will just leave someone bitter to the process of this thread. I don't like to be the mediator if I don't think the situation is objective or clear enough to make a decision on.

Also, I think it's far policy to say if it began outside of here, it isn't likely to end here

 

[Jack V Savage]

I think you guys should ask a different mod if you want to pursue it. I don't think you can get a clear winner in the situation and it will just leave someone bitter to the process of this thread. I don't like to be the mediator if I don't think the situation is objective or clear enough to make a decision on.

It's silly to me that he's going that route in the first place, but, like I said, I'm willing to play along with his childish game. Doesn't seem that there's any reason it has to even be a mod or that we can't resolve it ourselves.

 

[Quipling]

Yeah thats why the top comments on Hillary's facebook page are pro Trump.

President Trump

Get used to it.

No chance in hell she's got

1. Clinton becomes president
2. Quipling, For, @dittohead84 , against
3. Nov. 9
4. Sig bet
5. Sig stays up until inauguration

 

[Lead]

1. Clinton becomes president
2. Quipling, For, @dittohead84 , against
3. Nov. 9
4. Sig bet
5. Sig stays up until inauguration

Already tried this with him. He says nah.

 

[Lead]

@VivaRevolution v. @Jack V Savage
1. Trump will be at 33% or more on November 7th on this site https://electionbettingodds.com/
2. VivaRevolution- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 11/08/16 (so we know the final number the site shows for 11/7/16)
4. Signature bet
5. 11/09/16-12/08/16

For the site, you can go to the chart and see where the percentage is by day. I would go to that section on the 8th to see what they determined it to be on the 7th since I'm unsure if they update it hourly or not so I don't want to deal with live tracking it the day of. It shouldn't really affect the results and looking at it from the day after would be a true representation of where the odds say it at that day.

Can we make this official?

Wait, I'd like to propose one small change. The site is linked to John Stossel, and I think he is a dishonest hack. The current numbers look in line with legitimate stuff, but I'd prefer that we use Bovada, RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/us_presidential_election_live_betting_odds.html), Paddy Power, or some other politically unaffiliated site. Obviously, we'd adjust for the vig if we use a site that's actually taking bets.

That's just a preference, but if Viva wants to be a dick and hold firm, I'll take Stossel's site.

I also have a permanent AV bet with Lucas about whether Clinton will be indicted in the next 60 days (lol).

@VivaRevolution , since this is time sensitive, we need an answer soon or it isn't really the bet that was originally made the closer time gets to what the results are. If you could either accept, decline, or adjust this bet in the next 24 hours, we can make it official. Anything past that, I'm going to have to ask Jack again whether he accepts since some time had elapsed.

 

[Jack V Savage]

@VivaRevolution , since this is time sensitive, we need an answer soon or it isn't really the bet that was originally made the closer time gets to what the results are. If you could either accept, decline, or adjust this bet in the next 24 hours, we can make it official. Anything past that, I'm going to have to ask Jack again whether he accepts since some time had elapsed.

Potential to have something similar to a Monty Hall Problem here.

 

[Lead]

Potential to have something similar to a Monty Hall Problem here.

I just don't think it's good to have one player agree and the other wait a decent amount of time before considering to accept. It places all the risk on the first person who accepted. I don't think viva is doing this intentionally but I was to be sure if the bet does occur, both people are still in agreement to do it.

 

[VivaRevolution]

@VivaRevolution , since this is time sensitive, we need an answer soon or it isn't really the bet that was originally made the closer time gets to what the results are. If you could either accept, decline, or adjust this bet in the next 24 hours, we can make it official. Anything past that, I'm going to have to ask Jack again whether he accepts since some time had elapsed.

Potential to have something similar to a Monty Hall Problem here.

Yeah, I'm good with the bet. jack you can pick an odds sight for betting giving odds that updates daily. morning of the 8th sounds good.

Whatever sight is used the % starting point is from Friday morning, if we can't find what it was Friday morning on the sight you want to use , than we will need to use the one I originally posted.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

@Lead

No worries dude. I'm not concerned over what he says and anybody who is can look up the thread I referred to and determine for themselves if I issued an apology saying he was right, I was wrong (about thinking FBI would recommend charges).

After multiple accusations prior, here he is again doing it in the bet thread. So I took the opportunity to challenge him to provide evidence. It never occurred to me that you'd be unwilling to be involved, as there's nothing unethical about sharing info that the parties involved agree to share. My mistake if I've overlooked some other code of conduct. Sorry to bother you with it. It's dropped on my end.