The War Room Bet Thread

[Lead]

I will just be happy to defer to @m52nickerson and let him have his time if he wins. I can pick up with @waiguoren after that bet ends. Not really much difference between 4 years vs 3 years, 10 months.

Cool. I'll edit the beginning of your wager to the day after the inauguration.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I know how lines work. You don't even know what you are talking about.

I bet on Shogun at +400 (A $100 bet earns me $400 if he wins)

If I was going to bet someone in person I would be nice and knock the odds down to +200 because that is the type of guy I am (generous)

That is what I am doing with the Trump Florida bet. Giving better odds than the betting sites.

I am offering better odds for those that think Hillary is going to win Florida and people are too scared to bet me.

Where are you seeing odds for just Florida?

 

[UpaLoompa]

My God. Learn to read. If I believe the Lions are going to win the Super Bowl I am still going to try to get better than even odds because the odds of it happening are not even.

Simple

My God. Learn about betting.
If you're looking for better than even odds it means you're not confident.

 

[Lead]

Added a reference to no cash bets in the OP for future reference

 

[Lead]

As far as the betting line thing that was going on here. It's arguing two different ways that isn't making sense. You can't call someone a coward for wanting the line a certain way but then also claim you wanting the line your way is because you are being strategic. You should either argue it from one point or the other since the same points can be made against you or in defense of them if you argue both.

 

[Jack V Savage]

As far as the betting line thing that was going on here. It's arguing two different ways that isn't making sense. You can't call someone a coward for wanting the line a certain way but then also claim you wanting the line your way is because you are being strategic. You should either argue it from one point or the other since the same points can be made against you or in defense of them if you argue both.

The point of betting here is to make people stand behind their bullshit. If you make a claim and then offer odds that reflect a belief that your claim is false, you're already failing.

BTW, what is a $ bet was for donations to a charity? Still unenforceable, but would that be cool?

 

[Lead]

The point of betting here is to make people stand behind their bullshit. If you make a claim and then offer odds that reflect a belief that your claim is false, you're already failing.

BTW, what is a $ bet was for donations to a charity? Still unenforceable, but would that be cool?

Not sure. I would have to ask other mods to get an okay beforehand. I can't imagine that would be as much a problem. Again though, it couldn't be enforced.

I get the line can be seen as a backstep in confidence but the double standard of the two arguments being presented simultaneously is what bothered me. It isn't a sound argument if you can apply it to both sides but you are attaching all the negative when it applies to them and all the positive when it applies to you. I don't know the technical term but there has to be one.

 

[Hans Gruber]

The point of betting here is to make people stand behind their bullshit. If you make a claim and then offer odds that reflect a belief that your claim is false, you're already failing.

BTW, what is a $ bet was for donations to a charity? Still unenforceable, but would that be cool?

Not sure. I would have to ask other mods to get an okay beforehand. I can't imagine that would be as much a problem. Again though, it couldn't be enforced.

That sounds like a good idea jack

@m52nickerson could send me the money for me to donate to charity (or I could sell him something like a pair of boxers or something)

Since you guys are hounding me and don't understand why I deserve better odds I am still willing to move forward with 20 or 40 to charity at even odds. (If this whole charity thing is ok)

If I lose I will send the charity money via paypal so you could put it towards whatever charity you wish. (Probably the Lena Dunham Foundation in your case) You do the same for me. For charity.

I will put principal aside to prove that I believe he will take Florida


Sad that I gave you guys a great opportunity at good odds and you were too scared to take me up on it. Not much confidence for Hillary?

 

[Jack V Savage]

That sounds like a good idea jack

@m52nickerson could send me the money for me to donate to charity (or I could sell him something like a pair of boxers or something)

Since you guys are hounding me and don't understand why I deserve better odds I am still willing to move forward with 20 or 40 to charity at even odds. (If this whole charity thing is ok)

If I lose I will send the charity money via paypal so you could put it towards whatever charity you wish. (Probably the Lena Dunham Foundation in your case) You do the same for me. For charity.

I will put principal aside to prove that I believe he will take Florida

A better way to do it would be for someone to just make the donation in the name of the winner and show the receipt.

Something like this:

Alameda Food Bank Receipt
DONATION DETAILS
You have made a one-time donation for
$100.00


Donate 100% - Add 3% so that 100% of the donation goes to Alameda Food Bank

Total charged:$103.00

Transaction ID: 1474055014

But a picture (it does have other info below that would be identifying so that would require some editing--or you can set it up to email someone).

And I'm not familiar with this Lena Dunham Foundation, though it's quite telling that you'd say that.

And it's also telling that you think of it as a partisan issue. Most people just think, "polling analysis or betting odds offer the best guide to who will win," and it has nothing whatsoever to do with confidence in any individual or even who you prefer to win. You don't seem to be able to even comprehend that (very basic) level of rationality. Like, I think Trump is a shitty candidate and human, but I wouldn't bet against him winning Texas.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

You've not demonstrated that.
With a bookie? What does that tell you about their expectations? (in truth two things are conflated with how things are set but that's not really relevant here)

No, you're the type of guy that doesn't understand betting.

Seems pretty simple to me. It's the oddsmakers who lack faith in Trump, not Hans. His point is that he doesn't need to give even odds because he can get a much better deal online. I see why people want to chide him into the even bet, but his offer is a reflection of prevailing sentiment and not indicative of his own. Basically he's being smart about how he risks his money.

 

[m52nickerson]

That sounds like a good idea jack

@m52nickerson could send me the money for me to donate to charity (or I could sell him something like a pair of boxers or something)

Since you guys are hounding me and don't understand why I deserve better odds I am still willing to move forward with 20 or 40 to charity at even odds. (If this whole charity thing is ok)

If I lose I will send the charity money via paypal so you could put it towards whatever charity you wish. (Probably the Lena Dunham Foundation in your case) You do the same for me. For charity.

I will put principal aside to prove that I believe he will take Florida


Sad that I gave you guys a great opportunity at good odds and you were too scared to take me up on it. Not much confidence for Hillary?

Done, $20. Clinton wins Florida you donate $20 to charity, Trump wins Florida I donate $20.

 

[Greoric]

BTW, what is a $ bet was for donations to a charity? Still unenforceable, but would that be cool?

I like that idea actually. Thoughts @Lead ?

 

[Hans Gruber]

Not sure. I would have to ask other mods to get an okay beforehand. I can't imagine that would be as much a problem. Again though, it couldn't be enforced.

I get the line can be seen as a backstep in confidence but the double standard of the two arguments being presented simultaneously is what bothered me. It isn't a sound argument if you can apply it to both sides but you are attaching all the negative when it applies to them and all the positive when it applies to you. I don't know the technical term but there has to be one.

Done, $20. Clinton wins Florida you donate $20 to charity, Trump wins Florida I donate $20.

Agreed. I wil send you the money to donate to charity through Paypal. You do the same for me. We will exchange info after we find out who wins Florida

 

[Lead]

I like that idea actually. Thoughts @Lead ?

Agreed. I wil send you the money to donate to charity through Paypal. You do the same for me. We will exchange info after we find out who wins Florida

I'll post it just for the fact of the leader board if you guys put it in the correct format to make it official. Again, the only thing that will be acknowledged is who won. We can't enforce and will not try to enforce who used paypal or donate to so and so charity and I don't want any derailing in other threads if the stipulation with it went south after the bet has ended.

 

[Greoric]

I'll post it just for the fact of the leader board if you guys put it in the correct format to make it official. Again, the only thing that will be acknowledged is who won. We can't enforce and will not try to enforce who used paypal or donate to so and so charity and I don't want any derailing in other threads if the stipulation with it went south after the bet has ended.

Noted, I suppose honor code then, or?

 

[Quipling]

Edit: Jack beat me to the idea.

 

[Greoric]

Done, $20. Clinton wins Florida you donate $20 to charity, Trump wins Florida I donate $20.

Charity of the winner's choice or just any charity?

 

[Lead]

Noted, I suppose honor code then, or?

Idk what it's called. In the eyes of this thread, it's just going to show who won and apply to their record. A punishment/reward won't be recognized since it can't be enforced. They obviously can uphold it themselves but if one of them doesn't, they really can't do anything and I don't want bets like these to be public and then get controversy if there disagreement on the fulfillment of it after. The bet can be listed for winner and loser but after that, they are on their own.

 

[m52nickerson]

I'll post it just for the fact of the leader board if you guys put it in the correct format to make it official. Again, the only thing that will be acknowledged is who won. We can't enforce and will not try to enforce who used paypal or donate to so and so charity and I don't want any derailing in other threads if the stipulation with it went south after the bet has ended.

Understood.

I don't know what format you want so...

$20 bet to Charity (Mods will not enforce) on who will win Florida

@m52nickerson - Clinton

@Hans Gruber - Trump

 

[m52nickerson]

Charity of the winner's choice or just any charity?

I would be happy if he just donated it directly to the American Cancer Society. I will take his word on that.