The War Room Bet Thread

[Quipling]

You know, there's one person in the warroom who has a lot of opinions but hasn't much brought them up, and seems to have a bit of animus with me. @TheComebackKid , interested in a sig bet on the outcome of the election? Hillary wins, I get your sig or location through inauguration, Trump wins, you get mine? If you're concerned, we can always put limits on what is acceptable.

 

[Sycho Sid]

Jack "the bear Jew" Savage

I just wanted to quote this to say this made me shoot soda out of my nose.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Jack "the bear Jew" Savage

With one day to go, Trump's implied odds on Bovada are 24.897%. Been moving against Viva. Virtual lock that I get his scalp tomorrow (for the second time--previously I bet him that Clinton's favorability wouldn't drop 5 points in a month after the FBI gave its recommendation).

BTW, the way to convert the odds to a percentage is you first divide the minus odds (m) by 100+m and then divide 100 by the plus odds plus 100 (and do the same for "other"--+6600 at this time), then add the result, and then divide the totals by that result.

So Clinton's betting odds now are -375 and Trump's are +275 (and I mentioned the "other" odds). So the first-pass conversion is 78.9% (375/475), 26.7% )(100/(275+100)), and 1.5%. But that adds up to 107.1% (because of the vig). So divide each of them by 107.1%, and you get the odds adjusted for the vig. Right now, it's Clinton 73.7%, Trump 24.9%, and Other 1.4%.

 

[Lead]

@waiguoren , I know the deadline for posting your results are noon of election day but if you'd like to post something beforehand to avoid missing the deadline, you are free to. I will take the last posting before the deadline so nothing will be permanent and you can make adjustments before it's locked. I just don't want a scenario where something is posted late and it's an auto DQ.

 

[Lead]

With one day to go, Trump's implied odds on Bovada are 24.897%. Been moving against Viva. Virtual lock that I get his scalp tomorrow (for the second time--previously I bet him that Clinton's favorability wouldn't drop 5 points in a month after the FBI gave its recommendation).

BTW, the way to convert the odds to a percentage is you first divide the minus odds (m) by 100+m and then divide 100 by the plus odds plus 100 (and do the same for "other"--+6600 at this time), then add the result, and then divide the totals by that result.

So Clinton's betting odds now are -375 and Trump's are +275 (and I mentioned the "other" odds). So the first-pass conversion is 78.9% (375/475), 26.7% )(100/(275+100)), and 1.5%. But that adds up to 107.1% (because of the vig). So divide each of them by 107.1%, and you get the odds adjusted for the vig. Right now, it's Clinton 73.7%, Trump 24.9%, and Other 1.4%.

Because of the site we are using for the calculation, I can only do Clinton and Trumps odds. Right now Bovada is -375 and Trump +275 which makes it 75/25 Clinton right now. I don't think the additional third party candidates will effect the results but I can't factor them in the way the site is used.

 

[Quipling]

Because of the site we are using for the calculation, I can only do Clinton and Trumps odds. Right now Bovada is -375 and Trump +275 which makes it 75/25 Clinton right now. I don't think the additional third party candidates will effect the results but I can't factor them in the way the site is used.

79/21 now. The newest development destroyed that.

 

[Lead]

@RhinoRush , the election is close. Was wondering if you wanted to make a bet with myself or someone else on the election before it's too late

 

[RhinoRush]

@RhinoRush , the election is close. Was wondering if you wanted to make a bet with myself or someone else on the election before it's too late

Sure. If Trump wins, I get modded, if Hillary wins, I get banned.

 

[Lead]

Sure. If Trump wins, I get modded, if Hillary wins, I get banned.

 

[Limbo Pete]

I'm just sad ol @Hans Gruber never had the stones to accept my charity bet offer over Pennslyvania

It's not too late, Hans. you can still salvage some dignity here and go out like a man. And do some good for needy children.

 

[Quipling]

That must be why he is polling with African Americans double what Romney did

Breitbart says so. They're wrong.

Romney got 6% of african american votes. Trump would need to get 12% to double that. 9% is halfway between - I'll bet you he doesn't crack that.

Whys that?

Well no way for us to know until Tuesday. I'll be pretty surprised if Clinton gets a significant turnout of AAs tho.

Want to make the bet?

1. Trump will get more than 9% of the AA vote
2. Thecomebackkid for, Quipling against
3. November 9, 2016
4. Signature
5. Through inauguration (January 20, 2017).

 

[TheComebackKid]

Want to make the bet?

1. Trump will get more than 9% of the AA vote
2. Thecomebackkid for, Quipling against
3. November 9, 2016
4. Signature
5. Through inauguration (January 20, 2017).

I don't see why I would do that. I'm in no position to predict what is actually going to happen. And neither are you btw.

 

[Lead]

Want to make the bet?

1. Trump will get more than 9% of the AA vote
2. Thecomebackkid for, Quipling against
3. November 9, 2016
4. Signature
5. Through inauguration (January 20, 2017).

There isn;t a way to confirm who won this. We never get the real voting results by demographic,

 

[Hans Gruber]

I'm just sad ol @Hans Gruber never had the stones to accept my charity bet offer over Pennslyvania

It's not too late, Hans. you can still salvage some dignity here and go out like a man. And do some good for needy children.

Your bet? I offered you a Pennsylvania bet and you refused because you don't want to donate to Wikileaks.

You refused my bet

 

[Limbo Pete]

Your bet? I offered you a Pennsylvania bet and you refused because you don't want to donate to Wikileaks.

You refused my bet

You tried to make a faux charity bet for spare change and I offered you an actual charity bet for $350.
Still not too late to help the kids, bud. Tax deductible.

 

[Lead]

You tried to make a faux charity bet for spare change and I offered you an actual charity bet for $350.
Still not too late to help the kids, bud. Tax deductible.

It's possible Hans doesn't itemize. I'm unsure how old he is.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Because of the site we are using for the calculation, I can only do Clinton and Trumps odds. Right now Bovada is -375 and Trump +275 which makes it 75/25 Clinton right now. I don't think the additional third party candidates will effect the results but I can't factor them in the way the site is used.

I didn't get this at first, but I see what you posted. That works against me, but fair enough. I agreed to it. The margin of my win will be large enough that it's irrelevant anyway. It's now 80/20 so Viva was also wrong about the direction of the move (barring some massive news event today). I have to check, but I think I might even personally have an arbitrage opportunity (wouldn't take it, though, as it would be more trouble than it's worth).

 

[BKMMAFAN]

@Amerikuracana

3 month sig bet.

Bet: Who wins Michigan

Me: Clinton
Amerikuracana: Trump

I'd propose that we would have to change our AV to the winner of Mich for those 3 months as well. I'll leave that part up to you.

 

[Amerikuracana]

@Amerikuracana

3 month sig bet.

Bet: Who wins Michigan

Me: Clinton
Amerikuracana: Trump

I'd propose that we would have to change our AV to the winner of Mich for those 3 months as well. I'll leave that part up to you.

CNN propaganda is keeping me from going AV.. Hell with it. AV and sig for 3 months. Decent pics of opposing candidate only. Deal? *extends hand*

 

[BKMMAFAN]

CNN propaganda is keeping me from going AV.. Hell with it. AV and sig for 3 months. Decent pics of opposing candidate only. Deal? *extends hand*

Sure thing. Deal. I'll start looking for some great Hillary pics, haha.