That just shows that you don't understand how betting odds work.
From my end, I thought markets overreacted to the news in the first place, but aside from that, it's a 10-point move is almost always a bad bet. The markets ideally reflect all available information (it's kind of an open question how efficient political betting markets are, though). If they're working well, it's 50-50 on the *direction* of the move at all times, and if you're saying that the odds will change, you're saying that bettors will find out something that you know and they don't. I'd put my chances at 90% or so. Like I said, it's not *impossible* that you can win, but it's not likely. My other bets are jokes made with extraordinarily gullible partisans.
