Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[Jack V Savage]

Just bumping this to say I honestly cannot wait to win these bets.

Likely going to hit 40k before EOY.

Even if it does, which is unlikely but not out of the question, it would need to hold an increase of 25% over a year for you to win the easier bet for you. If someone came up to you offering an investment and claiming that it would definitely gain 25% in a year, wouldn't you think it's a scam? If not, you're a sucker.

 

[curryjunkie]

Looks good to me, signed.

ol whippy has an account bet with me on the same terms, so i guess you wont get your sig..

 

[Rob Battisti]

Even if it does, which is unlikely but not out of the question, it would need to hold an increase of 25% over a year for you to win the easier bet for you. If someone came up to you offering an investment and claiming that it would definitely gain 25% in a year, wouldn't you think it's a scam? If not, you're a sucker.

Hits the price on or before end of the year.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Hmm, well I’ll be a lying dog-faced pony soldier!

looks like I had my preferred language for @LMP and in my blind haste I didn’t realize the agreement with you. No matter, price will be above 80k by then anyway.

 

[SurferH2O]

@MMAisGod v @Whippy McGee
1. Winner of the 2024 election will be:
2. @MMAisGod - Joe Biden, @Whippy McGee - Donald Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Biden (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination.

I'm good with it.

 

[Lead]

@MMAisGod v @Whippy McGee
1. Winner of the 2024 election will be:
2. @MMAisGod - Joe Biden, @Whippy McGee - Donald Trump
3. 11/05/2024 (tentative, can go to certification day)
4. Signature bet
5. 6 months
6a. In the event either Trump (Republican) or Biden (Democrat) are not their party’s nominee, the bet is void.
6b. In the event there’s a dispute about who won, certification by Congress will be the final determination.

Looks good to me, signed.

I'm good with it.

Its official, thanks

 

[Rob Battisti]

 

[Rob Battisti]

 

[Andy Capp]

By the way, @Lead RE: #37 Hunter Simpson is me, FTR.

 

[Andy Capp]

Actually a sad rankings list when you look at it. I'm a journey man just over .500 person near the top and there's a lot of 1-0's at the moment. Then you have Jack a mile from the pack.

For my part, I have a few unresolved wagers pending so I expect to add to my one win sooner or later. I expect you'll have a bit of work to do following the 2024 US election. Thanks for doing this.

 

[Andy Capp]

I actually have explained my reasoning very clearly, but you don't seem capable of wrapping your head around the point. Also, there are no fundamentals.

That last sentence would have been my only comment if I were you. Once again you display far greater patience than I can muster these days, good on ya.

I know I have said this before so forgive me, but I truly am baffled by this: North America in general is coming up on 100 years of trying to build safeguards and consumer protections into the banking system and crypto enthusiasts want to throw all that away for an asset that can be straight up removed from existence if you forget your password? What?

Sounds like crazy talk to me.

 

[Lead]

By the way, @Lead RE: #37 Hunter Simpson is me, FTR.

Oh yea, I have name changes factored into the worksheet for this. You’ll see one of your other settled bets, you were crazy diamond. I’m skeptical the Hunter one will ever be settled. Last I looked it up, there’s speculation it was a country no one selected but I don’t think anything official who it was.

New rankings will be awhile from now. I don’t think any settled in v7 yet and I usually wait for 10 to settle before doing an update. Depending on the election cycle, maybe that’s mid year due to a bunch of primary bets or likely November when the election happens and people throw in last minute. There’s at least 4-5 related to those.

 

[Andy Capp]

Oh yea, I have name changes factored into the worksheet for this. You’ll see one of your other settled bets, you were crazy diamond. I’m skeptical the Hunter one will ever be settled. Last I looked it up, there’s speculation it was a country no one selected but I don’t think anything official who it was.

New rankings will be awhile from now. I don’t think any settled in v7 yet and I usually wait for 10 to settle before doing an update. Depending on the election cycle, maybe that’s mid year due to a bunch of primary bets or likely November when the election happens and people throw in last minute. There’s at least 4-5 related to those.

Indeed, the calm before the storm right now, innit?

I'm ok with nullifying the bet just to clear it off the books if the others are.

 

[Andy Capp]

edit: delete

 

[rearnakedchoke]

Man. Never really saw this thread and paid attention before. I think standings should be based on total wins and not win percentage, although I see the rationale, since not everyone has been involved. But it gives an incentive to put yourself out there. So a 5-3 record should be better ranked than a 1-0 record. Just my opinion. It may drive participation.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Oh yea, I have name changes factored into the worksheet for this. You’ll see one of your other settled bets, you were crazy diamond. I’m skeptical the Hunter one will ever be settled. Last I looked it up, there’s speculation it was a country no one selected but I don’t think anything official who it was.

New rankings will be awhile from now. I don’t think any settled in v7 yet and I usually wait for 10 to settle before doing an update. Depending on the election cycle, maybe that’s mid year due to a bunch of primary bets or likely November when the election happens and people throw in last minute. There’s at least 4-5 related to those.

I have a lock coming in in mid-January. Too bad no one wanted to bet on any evidence about Biden taking bribes coming in.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Man. Never really saw this thread and paid attention before. I think standings should be based on total wins and not win percentage, although I see the rationale, since not everyone has been involved. But it gives an incentive to put yourself out there. So a 5-3 record should be better ranked than a 1-0 record. Just my opinion. It may drive participation.

I think ideally every real argument should lead to a bet. Standings or not, when there is disagreement, people should think about how the differing views of reality can be translated into different expectations. Though in a lot of cases, it's instantly resolvable by currently available info (but then people refuse to accept it).

 

[Lead]

Man. Never really saw this thread and paid attention before. I think standings should be based on total wins and not win percentage, although I see the rationale, since not everyone has been involved. But it gives an incentive to put yourself out there. So a 5-3 record should be better ranked than a 1-0 record. Just my opinion. It may drive participation.

It isn’t win percentage necessarily. It’s a scoring system for each bet. The value of a win is based on the length bet and bet type. A 6 months av bet is more valuable in the rankings than a 1 month sig bet for example but losing a 1 month sig bet will also not push you down much in the rankings either. Beating someone high in the rankings also is worth more. So all of that can make the records a little too surface level for what happened.

I’d say one way it encourages more bets is inactivity matters. If you haven’t settled a bet since the previous thread, your underlying score (which determines the rankings) will be poorer. So more recent bets carry more value.

 

[Lead]

I have a lock coming in in mid-January. Too bad no one wanted to bet on any evidence about Biden taking bribes coming in.

12-1 is impressive. Notable posters in the record also.

 

[Lead]

@rearnakedchoke

Remember this exists next time you want a bet. We try to get the premise tightened up so no one tries to back out when they lose. Even if they do, the log is all in one spot for people to judge for themselves.