Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[Jack V Savage]

Idk who will win that bet but either way they will have to wait until I win all of mine’

Need @Terry Noonan to agree on a timeline, but I'd think it would be very fast. You're going to lose yours, badly, though. I feel a bit bad for you, but your obnoxiousness helps with that.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Need @Terry Noonan to agree on a timeline, but I'd think it would be very fast. You're going to lose yours, badly, though. I feel a bit bad for you, but your obnoxiousness helps with that.

<[analyzed}>

The only question is if you’ll be having mustard or hot sauce with your crow.

 

[Lead]

I think by its nature "smoking gun" doesn't leave much room for argument. I'm fine with a third-party arbiter (either another poster here--say nominated by one of us and accepted by the other--or a public figure).

Yea, if you could agree on a poster, I can arrange that. For a public figure, would it be someone you know would make an announcement in the event it happened? That might be harder depending who it is.

 

[Rob Battisti]

 

[Rob Battisti]

That's still predicting a 100% gain in a pretty short period. Assets do double quickly sometimes (generally because of new information), but if there were evidence suggesting such a move, I don't see why current value wouldn't reflect it. I think for any given stop date, $10K is just as likely as $30K.

I look forward to collecting gentlemen.

“10k as likely as 30k”

All this before a spot ETF is approved.

Still feeling confident?

 

[Lead]

 

[LMP]

I think it is still in pump and dump. Buy low sell high, don't get stuck buying when it's at its peak.

 

[Lead]

Yea I won’t believe it until it hits. Just so many ups and downs.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I think it is still in pump and dump. Buy low sell high, don't get stuck buying when it's at its peak.

Yea I won’t believe it until it hits. Just so many ups and downs.

Just buy one. You won’t regret it.

 

[LMP]

Just buy one. You won’t regret it.

After it drops back to 25k before Christmas

 

[Rob Battisti]

After it drops back to 25k before Christmas

So long as it’s before April

 

[LMP]

So long as it’s before April

I think the halving peaks at 45k then goes into a 30 to 40 pumping dumping cycle.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I think the halving peaks at 45k then goes into a 30 to 40 pumping dumping cycle.

Except it will coincide with multiple ETFs.

 

[Lead]

Just buy one. You won’t regret it.

1 coin or some quantity of it? I actually have $300 of BTC because a sherdogger gave me like $2 or something a decade ago. I found it a year or so ago but don’t care to claim it with my name.

 

[Lead]

Maybe 100-200. I can’t remember

 

[Rob Battisti]

1 coin or some quantity of it? I actually have $300 of BTC because a sherdogger gave me like $2 or something a decade ago. I found it a year or so ago but don’t care to claim it with my name.

Imagine if you bought $1000 back then.

 

[Jack V Savage]

All this before a spot ETF is approved.

Still feeling confident?

Very.

I think the question is revealing. Sort of mirrors what I think is our thinking differences on other issues. The way I see it, you have affective polarization and then sort of make comments sort of in the genre of an argument (or often just childish avoidance) to justify it, and I think you wrongly assume that everyone else is like that.

So on this, you have positive feelings about BTC, which leads you to think it's going up, and it doesn't matter much to you whether your specific arguments add up. And you think I have negative feelings about it, which leads me to think it's always going down, etc.

But my approach starts with a method and then goes to a conclusion. And my general thinking here is that the market is pretty efficient in that current prices reflect publicly available information pretty well. So I'd bet against any big move in any direction now. There could be some, but they'd be based on stuff that is currently unknown, and they can go in any direction. A two-thirds gain in a little over a year remains extremely unlikely.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Very.

I think the question is revealing. Sort of mirrors what I think is our thinking differences on other issues. The way I see it, you have affective polarization and then sort of make comments sort of in the genre of an argument (or often just childish avoidance) to justify it, and I think you wrongly assume that everyone else is like that.

So on this, you have positive feelings about BTC, which leads you to think it's going up, and it doesn't matter much to you whether your specific arguments add up. And you think I have negative feelings about it, which leads me to think it's always going down, etc.

But my approach starts with a method and then goes to a conclusion. And my general thinking here is that the market is pretty efficient in that current prices reflect publicly available information pretty well. So I'd bet against any big move in any direction now. There could be some, but they'd be based on stuff that is currently unknown, and they can go in any direction. A two-thirds gain in a little over a year remains extremely unlikely.

Only thing that could stop it is the housing market bubble or a greater overseas war. Ruling out those two things, it’s inevitable.

 

[Lead]

Imagine if you bought $1000 back then.

It would’ve been nice but I don’t believe the underlying fundamentals of it. I don’t want to get into debate about it as there’s been plenty of threads on it but I’ve put my money in stocks the last decade and feel pretty good about my financial situation this far out from retirement. There’s tons of what ifs but I think I took a pretty safe, predictable approach than trying to hit it big with the possibility of losing hard.

 

[Rob Battisti]

It would’ve been nice but I don’t believe the underlying fundamentals of it. I don’t want to get into debate about it as there’s been plenty of threads on it but I’ve put my money in stocks the last decade and feel pretty good about my financial situation this far out from retirement. There’s tons of what ifs but I think I took a pretty safe, predictable approach than trying to hit it big with the possibility of losing hard.

I appreciate not getting into a full blown conversation on it, but it’s interesting you mention the fundamentals of it as that’s the exact reason why I invest in it. Even a small allocation into Bitcoin would have outperformed everything else. Returns will diminish over time, but that’s the price of a more stabilized environment. It’s definitely not too late, but it’s not as early as it could have been.