Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

Best bet(s) settled in the last bet thread (see closed bets section in post 3)

  • Bet 53 Quipling v. SATW

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 48 kenetics v. HockeyBJJ

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Bet 54 Fawlty v. oceanmachine

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 59 MMAisGod v. oceanmachine

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 57 Trotsky v. heirapparent

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 58 Trotsky v. second sight

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Bet 46 Andy Capp v. Richie Madano

    Votes: 1 8.3%

  • Bet 60 Jack V Savage v. The ScorpioN

    Votes: 3 25.0%

  • Bet 62 Rob Battisti v. Jack V Savage

    Votes: 5 41.7%

  • Bet 63 Lead v. cottagecheesefan

    Votes: 6 50.0%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Lead said:
Actually a sad rankings list when you look at it. I'm a journey man just over .500 person near the top and there's a lot of 1-0's at the moment. Then you have Jack a mile from the pack.
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Got another win coming soon, too. I'd have a third except that Rob backed off on his own offer. Got another offer out now also (interchangeable hack saying that Biden will be impeached--lol).
 
Jack V Savage said:
Got another win coming soon, too. I'd have a third except that Rob backed off on his own offer. Got another offer out now also (interchangeable hack saying that Biden will be impeached--lol).
Click to expand...

Forgot about that open one. I usually like something outside of elections. The inflation and bitcoin price ones were good last thread as I didn't know at the time if I'd do a bet like that and if so, what side of the bet I would take. I was surprised you got two takers on the 1 year and 2 year but there were a lot of posts predicting that so I guess it needed challenged.
 
Lead said:
Forgot about that open one. I usually like something outside of elections. The inflation and bitcoin price ones were good last thread as I didn't know at the time if I'd do a bet like that and if so, what side of the bet I would take. I was surprised you got two takers on the 1 year and 2 year but there were a lot of posts predicting that so I guess it needed challenged.
Click to expand...

It's interesting to me because it's just hard to get my mind around the idea that people are true believers in that kind of campaign stuff. I've seen studies showing that people's beliefs get a lot more reasonable when you offer a cash reward for accuracy, and I think of the bets as being something like that. I notice that a lot of times just offering the bet causes people to start backtracking (like the follow-up offer to rob).

I'd offer anyone a bet that inflation is coming down a lot (I actually think getting all the way to 2% again is going to be tough, but for people who think there is something structural that caused the big jump from June to June, they should expect more very high numbers). I'd bet against impeachment. Not sure about a coming recession because the Fed is tightening hard and it's easy to go too far. I think it's around even odds in the next year. I think crime will continue to come down. Might be someone willing to bet against that (again, if you blame politicians for the 2020 jump, and they're still in power, you shouldn't expect it to be fixed). Too early for this, but I think people are greatly overestimating RDS politically. What are some other areas where we might see differing predictions?
 
Jack V Savage said:
It's interesting to me because it's just hard to get my mind around the idea that people are true believers in that kind of campaign stuff. I've seen studies showing that people's beliefs get a lot more reasonable when you offer a cash reward for accuracy, and I think of the bets as being something like that. I notice that a lot of times just offering the bet causes people to start backtracking (like the follow-up offer to rob).

I'd offer anyone a bet that inflation is coming down a lot (I actually think getting all the way to 2% again is going to be tough, but for people who think there is something structural that caused the big jump from June to June, they should expect more very high numbers). I'd bet against impeachment. Not sure about a coming recession because the Fed is tightening hard and it's easy to go too far. I think it's around even odds in the next year. I think crime will continue to come down. Might be someone willing to bet against that (again, if you blame politicians for the 2020 jump, and they're still in power, you shouldn't expect it to be fixed). Too early for this, but I think people are greatly overestimating RDS politically. What are some other areas where we might see differing predictions?
Click to expand...

I think that covers most objective type bets you could come to. Elections and economics mainly with some unique politically themed ones like Biden’s term or impeachment. Now that you say it, I’d like to get to a bet for a senate or house vote on an upcoming bill. Like at the time of one of the vote-a-ramas, I was pretty curious how many dem votes would be no on $15 minimum wage. Pretty sure I was surprised how high but did think you could see more than just say Manchin or Sinema. I think there were 6-7. So something like that. Maybe a SCOTUS opinion. Really surprised no one did whether roe would go. Actually, Homer had one years ago but I think it was that it would be reversed a year after Kavanaugh or Gorsuch joined the court. He was just too early on it.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Got another win coming soon, too. I'd have a third except that Rob backed off on his own offer. Got another offer out now also (interchangeable hack saying that Biden will be impeached--lol).
Click to expand...
Lmao sure old man. Sure. You didn’t like the terms of my offer. Simple as that. I’ll take you down again in time.
 
@Jack V Savage ill make a bet right now.

6 month signature bet

Biden does not win re-election with the caveat the Republican nominee is anyone other than Donald Trump.
 
Rob Battisti said:
Lmao sure old man. Sure. You didn’t like the terms of my offer. Simple as that. I’ll take you down again in time.
Click to expand...

Your offer was a 3M YOY average starting in, I believe, July. I expressed interest, but you backed off. We established that when we added stakes to the disagreement, you weren't willing to stand behind your claim, which is one of the points of betting IMO. Win win.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Your offer was a 3M YOY average starting in, I believe, July. I expressed interest, but you backed off. We established that when we added stakes to the disagreement, you weren't willing to stand behind your claim, which is one of the points of betting IMO. Win win.
Click to expand...
You only wanted to go on Augusts singular CPI number. Not the average of the year, which was what we did in the first bet.
 
Rob Battisti said:
@Jack V Savage ill make a bet right now.

6 month signature bet

Biden does not win re-election with the caveat the Republican nominee is anyone other than Donald Trump.
Click to expand...

It's odd to me that A) you feel sure about the outcome of a presidential election that is two years out and B) you think I'd also have a firm opinion about it.
 
Rob Battisti said:
You only wanted to go on Augusts singular CPI number. Not the average of the year, which was what we did in the first bet.
Click to expand...

No, I was willing to accept your offer. Plus, we were talking about a full-year. I never offered only a MOM bet, as there would be no basis for confidence about a MOM number.

Ed: The offer you had made was the YOY average of May 2023 to October 2023. 6% over/under. I was willing to take it, but you declined, suggesting that you agree that it will likely be less than that over that period.
 
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