The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Lead]

@waiguoren @andnowweknow

The bet states it would end when Stones trial concludes. The option for the end of the Mueller investigation was secondary if there wasn’t a trial. That’s why it says “if not”.

Also, the bet will not continue on indefinitely as we put this within the scope of Muellers team / investigation. His current trial is what will matter to calling the bet and the plea also still is in play.

 

[andnowweknow]

@waiguoren @andnowweknow

The bet states it would end when Stones trial concludes. The option for the end of the Mueller investigation was secondary if there wasn’t a trial. That’s why it says “if not”.

Also, the bet will not continue on indefinitely as we put this within the scope of Muellers team / investigation. His current trial is what will matter to calling the bet and the plea also still is in play.

Fair.

 

[andnowweknow]

He's got you on the terms of the bet (though your calling it premature is reasonable). But lesson learned, you've just been a victim of 'angle shooting.'

As a leftist, victimhood is all I know.

 

[waiguoren]

The bet states it would end when Stones trial concludes. The option for the end of the Mueller investigation was secondary if there wasn’t a trial. That’s why it says “if not”.

It should be obvious from the text that it meant a "trial" for "conspriacy/collusion". So the bet should settle now.

However, I'm a literalist anyways so I have nothing to complain about. I'll be sure to write these bets in a fool-proof way going forward.

 

[LMP]

@Lead are you going to give the offical approval for @JamesRussler and my bet? Add it to the damn list!

 

[Lead]

@Lead are you going to give the offical approval for @JamesRussler and my bet? Add it to the damn list!

No worries. There’s some stuff I need to wrap up before any new bets are made but I haven’t forgotten that one and will get it handled

 

[WhiteMousse]

Holy shit this thread is crazy.

As a leftist, victimhood is all I know.

Alright I laffed and you got respect from me. I know you're just up at night wondering what I think about you

 

[andnowweknow]

Holy shit this thread is crazy.



Alright I laffed and you got respect from me. I know you're just up at night wondering what I think about you

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage

I recall that you believed that the Trump Tower meeting included the exchange of the DNC hacks for policy concessions.

I hereby offer you a bet: the Mueller report will find no evidence that the Russian lawyer in that meeting offered the DNC e-mails to any Trump campaign representative.

 

[Lead]

The request to delete the account and move to another one can suffice as calling this bet. Judges were not needed.

#29. @waiguoren v. @PolishHeadlock
1. The Mueller investigation will indict Trump and accuse Trump of committing a crime to EITHER
a) cooperate with / help Russia carry out the DNC/DCCC/Clinton office hack
OR
b) offer Russia concessions (policy, money, etc) in exchange for the fruits of one of the hacks above
2. PolishHeadlock- for, waiguoren- against
3. When the Mueller investigation concludes
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 5 years
6. Null if Mueller is fired or Trump unexpectedly passes
*Lead, Zankou, and panamaican will make the call on the bet when the investigation concludes.
Winner: Waiguroen

 

[Lead]

Revisions coming sometime this week to the OP

 

[Lead]

Update to the rules of the bet thread. All bets previous to this will still be honored/enforced as mentioned before. Bets going forward will be under these guidelines:

Disclaimer:
-The forum itself does not choose to enforce any bets between posters. This thread is meant to serve as a public record of wagers between posters to be settled by an assigned arbitrator. A poster is only held to their honor of upholding their end of the bargain and could possibly not honor the bet punishment. The result of this will only come into play in the rankings system (explained below) and the public ridicule that may follow.

The Rules:
-Since we have this thread now, keep bet discussions in here rather than other threads. It will prevent derailing the discussions there. If you organically come up with an idea in another thread, just move the conversation over to here with whomever it is with.

-Bet types are limited to name, avatar, and/or signature. Other proposals can be made but likely won't be considered in the ranking system. No account/e-suicide bets as silencing part of the community isn't very WR like. This is suppose to be something fun but not fatal for our regulars here. No cash bets as the site doesn't want to host that.

-Do not allude/mention bets in this thread that don't adhere to the rules above. For example, mentioning an account ban bet will just get the post deleted.

How to Make and Finalize a Bet
When coming in here, please propose your wager to the other poster involved and tag @Lead so the progress can be tracked. Bets cannot be finalized until they are formatted in this manner:
1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided (this can become tentative based of the officiators call)
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment
6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
7 (OPTIONAL) The moderator(s) (see list) the posters agree to call the bet. The default would be @Lead if no one else is selected
I will get both posters to quote and agree to the formatted bet before making it official. At that point, the thread is live and cannot be undone unless both parties agree to drop it and let me know. I will make sure both parties are certain anytime something like that is done.
At the time a bet is expected to be called, the posters involved are expected to sort it out first and see if they agree to who won/lost. If there is a disagreement to who won/lost the bet, the moderator(s) selected for the bet can make the call. If it's multiple moderators, majority decision decides the winner and likely will be discussed privately via PM.
-Once the bet is decided, the bet will be closed and officially counted towards the public records/rankings

Moderators: Madmick, Zankou, computer fogie, Lead, Ruprecht, panamaican, irish_thug


Requirements
-Both posters involved in the bet must have either an account that's been around over 1 year or over 1000 posts. A poster previously registered in a WR Election can automatically qualify as well. Exceptions can be given but shouldn't be expected.
-If at any time, a poster is overextended with open bets, future bets can be rejected until the result. Posters can ask me at any time whether this is the case to avoid finding out as they are trying to make a new bet.

Rankings/Records
-Records will be maintained as bets are called. Rankings will have the most accurate information but I will attempt to have information between threads about informal current records in between threads.
-With every ten bets that are decided (not including null/draws), a new thread will be made with updated rankings.
-The rankings will include a champion based on who has the highest score based on the bets previously officiated through this thread
-The score applied to each poster will be based on ranking in opponent faced, duration of the reward/punishment of bets made, type of bet made (name, av, and/or, sig), and how new/old the resolved bet is. Due to limitations, the longest duration of a bet will be capped at 5 years.
-The poster who is crowned the champ will be considered champ until the time new rankings dethrone them from the top spot. During the time of their reign, their record and score will be accounted for historical perspective and comparisons of each title reign. Please keep in mind that beating the current champ does not dethrone them necessarily or crown yourself as the champ.
-Any accounts that are seen not serving out their name, avatar, and/or signature bet punishment will be assigned an asterisk to their name and removed from future rankings. The asterisk will be removed once the account serves the punishments they promised to honor in the thread but they will only be restored in the rankings once those prior obligated punishments are fulfilled completely. In other words, honor all your bets and you should be fine.

 

[Lead]

Avatar bet with @Lowmanproblems

Within 6 months, DOJ will announce indictments for ANY of Comey, Strzok, McCabe, Ohr, Page, Yates, Lynch, Obama, Brennan, Clapper, or other progenitors of the “Russia Collusion” investigation.

If I win, he changes his av to Trump in a MAGA hat.

If he wins, I’ll change my av to a candidate of his choice.

Loser sports the av for 3 months. Deal?

I agree.

Coming back to this now.

@JamesRussler
"Within 6 months, DOJ will announce indictments for ANY of Comey, Strzok, McCabe, Ohr, Page, Yates, Lynch, Obama, Brennan, Clapper, or other progenitors of the “Russia Collusion” investigation"

The underlined part is way too broad to move forward. We can to close the scope somewhat or just only use the names you mention before that part.

 

[Lead]

As to the new rules. Here is the old OP for reference as well as the open bets that are still tied to them
Old OP

Spoiler

The Rules:
-Since we have this thread now, keep bet discussions in here rather than other threads. It will prevent derailing the discussions there. If you organically come up with an idea in another thread, just move the conversation over to here with whomever it is with.

-I will try to manage the OP with the current bets going on. You both must come to an agreement on:
1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment before I will post it.
6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
Once, you both are in agreement, tag me so I can add it.

-Punishments are limited. No account/e-suicide bets as silencing part of the community isn't very WR like. This is suppose to be something fun but not fatal for our regulars here. Signature and av bets are fair game. The av/sig that will be given can be decided before or after the bet.

-No cash bets. It can't be enforced and isn't something the site can or wants to host.

-If there is a dispute over who won/lost the bet, you can choose a moderator to decide the result. The mod options will be Madmick, Zankou, and myself. If you both want a different moderator, each poster can decide a moderator they don't want to decide and the remaining of the three will make the call (yes, this sounds very detailed and overly complex but I'm sure this likely is going to occur and want to make it fair as possible. Eliminating one ensures both posters at least get their 2nd best choice.)

-Same rules apply in this thread as any other thread in the War Room. No flaming other posters, etc.

-Both posters involved in the bet must have either an account that's been around over 1 year or over 1000 posts. Exceptions can be given. If the volume of bets becomes frequent, I will limit the amount of pending bets per user. I don't expect this to happen.

-Do not allude/mention bets in this thread that don't adhere to the rules above. For example, mentioning an account ban bet will just get the post deleted.

-If a punishment doesn't begin at the start date in #5, the amount of time will remain paused until it begins. For example, if someone was suppose to change their Av on 1/1/16 for a one month avatar bet and they don't begin until 1/3/16, the loser must keep the av until 2/2/16.

-Certain rules above can be suspended if approved at the time the bet is made. These rules would be the two bets at a time, post/join date requirement, and anything else that was made just to handle the flow of traffic with bets.

If I'm missing something, I'll be sure to clarify it in the thread before editing the OP but I think this covers most of it. Have fun and stuff.

Open Bets under these rules (Will be enforced as promised previously)

Spoiler

#16 @Lead v. @HUNTERMANIA
1. Trump will be impeached during his first term as President
2. HUNTERMANIA- for , Lead- against
3. End of Trump's term or if he is impeached beforehand
4. Signature bet
5. 3 months
6. If Trump is removed from office from illness, death, or assassination, the bet will be null

#17 @waiguoren v. @rj144
1. Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election
2. Waiguoren- for rj144- against
3. 11/04/2020
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Bet is null if Trump doesn't run in 2020 or pulls out of race regardless of the reason why

#21. @HomerThompson v @oleDirtyBast4rd
1. Trump is removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019
2. HomerThompson- for, oleDirtyBast4rd- against
3. 01/01/2020
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Death and physical illness would result in a null bet. Mental illness and subsequent removal would count.

#24. @HomerThompson v @Lead
1. Trump is removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019
2. HomerThompson- for, Lead- against
3. 01/01/2020
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month
6. Death and physical illness would result in a null bet. Mental illness and subsequent removal would count.

#25. @waiguoren v @HomerThompson
1. Trump is removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019
2. HomerThompson- for, waiguoren- against
3. 01/01/2020
4. Sig bet
5. 6 months
6. Death and physical illness would result in a null bet. Mental illness and subsequent removal would count.

#26. @HereticBD v. @VivaRevolution
1. Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Presidential Election
2. VivaRevolution- for, HereticBD- against
3. 11/04/2020
4. Avatar & Signature bet
5. HereticBD win=Viva's Av/Sig for 1 month; Viva win= HereticBD Av/Sig for 1 year

#28. @HomerThompson v. @IGIT
1. Within 18 months of Trump's new justice being appointed, the supreme court will allow individual states to outlaw abortion.
2. HomerThompson - For, IGIT - Against
3. Tentatively 18 months once the Trump justice is confirmed (04/06/2020)
4. Signature bet
5. 2 months
6. If Trump isn't able to get an appointee confirmed, the bet is null

#31. @waiguoren v. @andnowweknow
1. Roger Stone will be indicted and convicted on at least one charge brought by Robert Mueller's team for Trump/Russia coordination/collusion/conspiracy.
2. andnowweknow- for, waiguoren- against
3. At the conclusion of Stone's trial, if it happens. If not, at the end of the Mueller investigation.
4. Sig bet
5. 10 months
6. The conviction needs to be for coordination/collusion/conspiracy between Trump/Russia. For example: treason, conspiracy to defraud the USA, or conspiracy to commit an offense against the USA by coordinating with the Russian state would all give the win to andnowweknow. Tax fraud as in the Manafort case would not count. Perjury would not count. If Stone signs a plea agreement for any reason, the bet is a push.
*Lead also reserves the right to have participants add two additional mods to decide who won if it's contested.

#34. @VivaRevolution v. @Rob Battisti
1. Trump will win the 2020 presidential election
2. Rob Battisti- For, VivaRevolution- against
3. 11/7/2020 (tentatively)
4. Avatar bet
5. 3 months

#36. @waiguoren v. @Trotsky
1. Michael Avenatti or Cory Booker will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
2. waiguoren: Avenatti, Trotsky: Cory Booker
3. The day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention
4. Name bet
5. 1 year
6. If neither man is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, the bet is a push.

#37. @xcvbn vs. @Hunter Simpson v. @Quipling
1. Company A in the (probably) sealed subpoena case that went to SCOTUS is owned by this country:
2. @xcvbn - Israel @Hunter Simpson - Turkey @Quipling - Qatar
4. Avatar
5. 1 month
6. If Company A is not owned by any of the named companies, the bet is null.
7. Other parties may join the betting pool if they select an unnamed country and current participants approve.

#38. @VivaRevolution v. @Yorkist
1. Donald Trump will lose in the Republican primary or not run for a second term.
2. VivaRevolution- for, Yorkist- against
3. Tentative (if Trump announces he isn't running or when a Republican nomination is secured)
4. Avatar bet
5. 1 month

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

Is @VivaRevolution even around anymore?

 

[Lead]

Is @VivaRevolution even around anymore?

Of course. He's even featured in the current PotWR sticky

 

[JamesRussler]

Coming back to this now.

@JamesRussler
"Within 6 months, DOJ will announce indictments for ANY of Comey, Strzok, McCabe, Ohr, Page, Yates, Lynch, Obama, Brennan, Clapper, or other progenitors of the “Russia Collusion” investigation"

The underlined part is way too broad to move forward. We can to close the scope somewhat or just only use the names you mention before that part.

We can limit it to government employees. That narrows the pool sufficiently. But not every name is public at this point, so I can’t make an exhaustive list of people who might be indicted. If it helps you, just phrase it conversely: @Lowmanproblems bets that no one will be indicted for pushing the phony and debunked Russia Collision investigation, which ended in disgrace a few days ago.

 

[Quipling]

This bet is essentially that the spoilered post is incorrect, although I rewrote it in a fashion less favorable to my position to remove ambiguities.

Spoiler

so.....not a single guilty plea or indictment had anything to do w/ Russia correct?
literally, NOT ONE

1. Statement: The SCO did not indict anyone, nor did anyone plead guilty, for conduct that involved Russia.

"Conduct that involved Russia" is taken to mean knowingly acting on behalf of the Russian government or reaching an agreement with the Russian government.

2. For: @HunterSdVa29
Against: @Quipling

3. Resolved one week after the public release of the Mueller Report, redacted or otherwise.

4. Stakes: Avatar (open to signature)

5. Duration: quipling gets HunterSdva's avatar for 1 month per person indicted or pleaded guilty who has a connection to Russia.

If there are none, huntersdva gets Quipling's avatar for 12 months.
(Alternative: normal 12 month duration per side).


If huntersdva29 insists on judges, I am willing to allow him his choice from the judge list.

 

[LMP]

We can limit it to government employees. That narrows the pool sufficiently. But not every name is public at this point, so I can’t make an exhaustive list of people who might be indicted. If it helps you, just phrase it conversely: @Lowmanproblems bets that no one will be indicted for pushing the phony and debunked Russia Collision investigation, which ended in disgrace a few days ago.

@Lead can we just elect to have some mods judge what counts I'm not worried either way. If you would rather more specific, I will leave the names up to @JamesRussler

 

[JamesRussler]

@Lead can we just elect to have some mods judge what counts I'm not worried either way. If you would rather more specific, I will leave the names up to @JamesRussler

How bout limiting it to government officials or agents? For example, if Nelly Ohr gets indicted, you will win insofar as she was not acting as an agent of the federal government. If Bruce Ohr gets indicted, I win because he’s a supervisory official in the AG’s office. I think we’re both on the same page though. If I lose the bet, I lose—I will own the loss. I’m not known for reneging.