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The War Room Bet Thread V3

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waiguoren said:
Easy money.
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Congratulations to @Jack V Savage !

Here is the reason I took the bet:


California uses a top-two primary system. In the primary for this contest, Knight---as an incumbent(!)---received significantly more votes than all the Democrats combined. In my mind, that is very powerful evidence pointing to a Knight win.

In fact, I still can't wrap my head around the provisional result. It would be one thing if Knight had some major scandal since the primary or if Hill had run some great campaign, but neither are true. The best they came up with on scandals was that Knight denied taking NRA money when in fact his campaign received a couple of small donations. Knight was an LAPD officer for 18 years. As for Hill, she is very young and significantly to the "left" of the district.

In 2016, Knight beat a much stronger candidate there (Caforio) by 4.2% the same year that Hillary Clinton won the district by 7%!

A big part of Hill's strategy was to turn out the youth vote, but my research indicated that the college student population in this district is quite small.

I also communicated with people in the district who were not impressed with Hill and did not expect her to win.

I'll keep looking for explanations of this strange outcome. In lieu of that, it might be enough to turn me into a conspiracy theorist.


============

As a side note, @SBJJ is a heavy favorite to hand Jack his first loss in two months. I wonder who Jack would rather have lost to between the two of us.

Again, congratulations to Jack.
 
waiguoren said:
Congratulations to @Jack V Savage !

Here is the reason I took the bet:


California uses a top-two primary system. In the primary for this contest, Knight---as an incumbent(!)---received significantly more votes than all the Democrats combined. In my mind, that is very powerful evidence pointing to a Knight win.

In fact, I still can't wrap my head around the provisional result. It would be one thing if Knight had some major scandal since the primary or if Hill had run some great campaign, but neither are true. The best they came up with on scandals was that Knight denied taking NRA money when in fact his campaign received a couple of small donations. Knight was an LAPD officer for 18 years. As for Hill, she is very young and significantly to the "left" of the district.

In 2016, Knight beat a much stronger candidate there (Caforio) by 4.2% the same year that Hillary Clinton won the district by 7%!

A big part of Hill's strategy was to turn out the youth vote, but my research indicated that the college student population in this district is quite small.

I also communicated with people in the district who were not impressed with Hill and did not expect her to win.

I'll keep looking for explanations of this strange outcome. In lieu of that, it might be enough to turn me into a conspiracy theorist.


============

As a side note, @SBJJ is a heavy favorite to hand Jack his first loss in two months. I wonder who Jack would rather have lost to between the two of us.

Again, congratulations to Jack.
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Well hello there
 
waiguoren said:
More corny than anything
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How does it feel knowing your "proprietary model" couldn't carry you to a win against a guy/nemesis you were playing on having a "cherry popping ceremony" for? Against a guy you seem to despise on the basis of his use of some election website... only to have your own methods explode in your face?

You know, i'm starting to think you miiiiight not even HAVE a proprietary model at all. Sure seems fishy....
 
Limbo Pete said:
How does it feel knowing your "proprietary model" couldn't carry you to a win against a guy/nemesis you were playing on having a "cherry popping ceremony" for? Against a guy you seem to despise on the basis of his use of some election website... only to have your own methods explode in your face?

You know, i'm starting to think you miiiiight not even HAVE a proprietary model at all. Sure seems fishy....
Click to expand...

Can't tell if joking or serious, so I'll go with joking until you say otherwise.

Possum-head Nate Silver's proprietary model overestimated the Democratic gains in the House. Again. Sad!
 
Also @waiguoren, looks like you're gonna need an updated sig in general

"Undefeated GOAT politics bettor"
 
waiguoren said:
Can't tell if joking or serious, so I'll go with joking until you say otherwise.

Possum-head Nate Silver's proprietary model overestimated the Democratic gains in the House. Again. Sad!
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"I predict the Republicans to hold the House" - Waiguoren
 
Okay @Lead you won fair and square. It was an avatar bet right? What's my new av gonna be?
 
waiguoren said:
Obviously, but because of bullshit yellow cards I can't edit it
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"Bullshit" yellow cards for a flagrant violation of the rules (posting our PMs), on top of posting my picture after it was removed by a moderator, and after you were informed that it was not a public picture. The reason you were not banned is that you were given a break because you didn't have a history of infractions (you do now, though), and I also didn't push it.

[*]No Disclosure of Personal Information: Do not disclose any other member's email, real name, address, phone number, IP address, or other personal information. This includes the posting contents of emails, private messages, warnings, infractions, and bans. Do not bring personal disputes into the forums.

I hope you enjoyed being my little yellow bitch for a month. Now you can enjoy being Jack's bitch for a while.

You are also a complete phony.
 
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