The War Room Bet Thread v2

[waiguoren]

Oh, for fuck's sake...

You tell me. How clean do you think Trump is?

The reason I raise the issue of Bill Clinton is because the definition of "evidence" in this context is unclear and ripe for argument. For example, was Bill Clinton's pardon of Chris Wade "evidence" of criminal behavior on Clinton's part?

 

[Jack V Savage]

I'm trying to understand your position. No need for profanity.

My position is that the guy's obviously a crook, and a lot of evidence of that will be uncovered (likely already has been).

I don't think Mueller will uncover any definitive evidence that Trump knew of a Russian government plan to hack the DNC e-mail system prior to that system being hacked.

I think it's crazy that you'd claim any confidence on that matter, but that's beside the point. I'm chiming in because I see your bet with @HomerThompson, and it seems to me that there's a missing option--that evidence will be found justifying impeachment but it won't lead to removal.

 

[Jack V Savage]

The reason I raise the issue of Bill Clinton is because the definition of "evidence" in this context is unclear and ripe for argument. For example, was Bill Clinton's pardon of Chris Wade "evidence" of criminal behavior on Clinton's part?

If Trump testifies under oath, I think there's nearly a 100% chance that he'll commit perjury just because that's the kind of person he is (even most of his supporters realize that he's a deeply dishonorable man). But I expect bigger catches than that.

 

[waiguoren]

My position is that the guy's obviously a crook

With all due respect, this phrasing is indicative of a childlike view of the world: good guys vs. bad guys, the law vs. the crooks.

I think it's crazy that you'd claim any confidence on that matter

I am confident in one direction and you appear confident in the other direction. According to your post from the other day, this is exactly the type of situation in which you like to bet with people.

 

[waiguoren]

If Trump testifies under oath, I think there's nearly a 100% chance that he'll commit perjury.

Right, that's part of what I was getting at. It's possible to perjure oneself in the absence of an underlying crime. See: Bill Clinton.

 

[Jack V Savage]

With all due respect, this phrasing is indicative of a childlike view of the world: good guys vs. bad guys, the law vs. the crooks.

The phrasing that a particular guy who is well-known to be a crook is a crook. If I said, "OJ Simpson is likely a murderer," would that be indicative of a childlike view of the world: the law vs. murderers?

I am confident in one direction and you appear confident in the other direction. According to your post from the other day, this is exactly the type of situation in which you like to bet with people.

That's an interesting interpretation of my claim that there is no basis for any confidence in the matter. I can't imagine how anyone would justify any confidence on the issue, meaning I can provide no estimate of the odds and I don't believe you can either (or not reasonably--it appears to me that tribalism is again driving your view).

 

[Jack V Savage]

Right, that's part of what I was getting at. It's possible to perjure oneself in the absence of an underlying crime. See: Bill Clinton.

So make a proposal. I'm willing to carve out some exceptions.

 

[waiguoren]

The phrasing that a particular guy who is well-known to be a crook is a crook. If I said, "OJ Simpson is likely a murderer," would that be indicative of a childlike view of the world: the law vs. murderers?

Absurd comparison. "Murderer" has a specific definition, while "crook" could mean a dishonest person or a criminal of almost any kind. It's a vacuous term used often in children's animated shows and by political partisans.

That's an interesting interpretation of my claim that there is no basis for any confidence in the matter.

Fair. I jumped to a conclusion on that. What's your estimate of the likelihood that Trump knew in advance?

I can't imagine how anyone would justify any confidence on the issue, meaning I can provide no estimate of the odds and I don't believe you can either (or not reasonably--it appears to me that tribalism is again driving your view).

If tribalism is the driver of my predictions, I must be a member of the tribe of oracles.

Soon I will be the undisputed betting champion. Only the Nexus will be more powerful than I.@senri

 

[Jack V Savage]

Absurd comparison. "Murderer" has a specific definition, while "crook" could mean a dishonest person or a criminal of almost any kind. It's a vacuous term used often in children's animated shows and by political partisans.

You're going off the deep end here, buddy. Just FYI.

Fair. I jumped to a conclusion on that. What's your estimate of the likelihood that Trump knew in advance?

I really don't know. I'd say that it's certain that he knew about it before the public did, though. Possible that Russia did it first and then sought a deal afterwards.

If tribalism is the driver of my predictions, I must be part of a tribe of oracles.

Partly luck, IMO. But on this issue, what else are you basing your assessment on?

 

[waiguoren]

You're going off the deep end here, buddy. Just FYI.

Face your tribalism head on. Submit to it. Let it consume your flesh on your way to enlightenment.

Partly luck, IMO. But on this issue, what else are you basing your assessment on?

Common sense and the repeated multiplication of conditional probabilities.

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage

Accept your inevitable fate as also-ran, runner-up, silver medalist.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Common sense and the repeated multiplication of conditional probabilities.

"Common sense" = what you think when you don't think about an issue. Could be because you're right, but it could be because you haven't questioned your conditioning. I think the reason you assume that someone with Trump's history is clean here is that you've been getting your news from Breitbart.

 

[Jack V Savage]

@Jack V Savage

Accept your inevitable fate as also-ran, runner-up, silver medalist.

I haven't been drumming up business the way you have.

 

[waiguoren]

you assume that someone with Trump's history is clean

Strawman, and vague to boot.

 

[waiguoren]

I haven't been drumming up business the way you have.

And the flow of excuses begins.

 

[Jack V Savage]

And the flow of excuses begins.

Well, it's a fact that our winning percentage is the same, but you'll pass me in volume.

 

[waiguoren]

Well, it's a fact that our winning percentage is the same, but you'll pass me in volume.

You've also admitted that you only take bets are are impossible to lose. My bets, by your account, are much riskier and yet I keep winning.

 

[Fawlty]

Take the midterm bet.

 

[HomerThompson]

You've also admitted that you only take bets are are impossible to lose. My bets, by your account, are much riskier and yet I keep winning.

You angle shoot your bets more than anyone here. At least be man enough to admit that.

 

[Fawlty]

PaHOOOO-SuHAAAAY