Economy The Trump Slump is Here: Atlanta Feds Predict Negative 1.5 GDP Growth the First Quarter

[LangfordBarrow]

If the economy were roaring, you'd be saying it was because of the Biden admin. Same things during Trumps first term. All good was holdover from Obama, all bad was Trump.

Do you think tariffs are a good policy? I remember you complaining a lot about Obamacare, although I started posting here nit long before Trump took office, but aren't tariffs basically taxes? Americans pay these tariffs to the government right? And that's not even taking reciprocal actions into consideration. So a guy that campaigned on making goods cheaper is implementing policies that make them more expensive. Can you admit that?

 

[LangfordBarrow]

I’m sure multiple things he is doing isn’t helping, alienating allies and businesses in our immediate neighbors , coming off unhinged and a total Putin cuck, but I’ll give him a quarter before I blame the economy on him. All I know is as a union carpenter I was only out of work for six months for the whole term of Joe biden and his infrastructure bill would’ve helped me and my brothers for years to come.

Edit: also the only rise in building costs during his term was because of a global supply chain issue caused by a global pandemic , where as trump is doing a self imposed tax on building. Unless interest rates drop to near zero , this means homelessness or corporate housing(renting) will increase.

A zero interest rate is like deregulating the stock market. It's a pedal to the metal policy that doesn't leave much room to maneuver when you hit a slick patch.

 

[Scheme]

​

U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever​

GDP Plunged At A 32.9% Rate: Here’s Why It Matters

GDP plunged by 32.9% Here's why it matters and how it may affect negotiations over another round of Covid-19 relief.

www.forbes.com

GDP Plunged At A 32.9% Rate: Here’s Why It Matters​

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

Do you seriously not understand what that title means? Like do you actually think that means what you originally posted? Or do you not comprehend what your statement was and what that title means? If you want I can explain it to you.

Real GDP growth by quarter U.S. 2024 | Statista

The U.S. economy grew slightly in the third quarter of 2024.

www.statista.com

You can see the real GDP growth rate rebound quickly in Q3 20 right after Q2 20. This was because of COVID-19 and the recovery afterwards.

The guy is a complete shitbag, but it is true that 2nd Qrtr 2020 was an all time low for a quarter. I'm sure you won't be surprised what shitbag conveniently fails to mention is that was followed immediately by the all time record high GDP growth in Q3 2020.

It is frustrating arguing with people who only read headlines; and beyond that ones who don't even understand what they are reading.

 

[shunyata]

Well except for tariffs...and all the talk of them that led to companies preemptively adjusting pricing and strategy.

But aside from that, virtually identical I'm sure.

And the mass federal firings,

and freezing of payments to federal contractors.


Did all the conservatives forget about when Reagan explained how excessive tariffs and isolationist policies were wrong for America and would only hurt the US economy?

 

[ChosenOne]

If the economy were roaring, you'd be saying it was because of the Biden admin. Same things during Trumps first term. All good was holdover from Obama, all bad was Trump.

Generally speaking most POTUS cut such a neutral path, that is hard to really pin them for the over all US economy, as global considerations and investments or malinvestments from prior terms typically are more impactful.

So Biden's infrastructure investments (Chips Act) was likely to boost Trump and even the next POTUS economy, more than it did Bidens due to the nature of the pay off being in the future as construction and then jobs began.

Still we saw Biden hand Trump an economy that had done nothing but improve since Trump handed it to him in 2020 even despite most economists regardless of partisan stripe saying it was near impossible to Biden and his team to stick handle around a recession.

What Trump is doing with Tariffs is one of the biggest ways a country can absolutely ruin an otherwise strong economy. Even if the rest of the world was on a huge positive run, Tariffs could shut down or turn an otherwise strong economy towards recession.

That is on Trump, even if you magats will look to blame everyone else. We see the stock markets quaking as Trump literally speaks about his tariffs as the investors start to flee. But still you will try and blame Biden, because you are the 'poorly educated'.

Corporations in America have ALREADY paused spending on expansion and other investments at the same time Doge is spiking unemployment with mass government layoffs, and Trumps budget plan greatly increases the debt.

So ya, of course the US economy downturn is on Trump and predictably so.

 

[Strychnine]

The "R"-word is being tossed around and I don't mean Republican.

Looks like it might rear its ugly head by end of June. Well, this is what "WE" voted for.

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Property theft tends to rise in hard economic times. Can't say I blame the gun buyers. I'm half-tempted myself.

- Didnt think about that!

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Jack Daniel’s maker says Canada pulling US alcohol off shelves ‘worse than tariff’​

The Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman’s CEO Lawson Whiting said on Wednesday Canadian provinces taking US liquor off store shelves was “worse than a tariff” and a “disproportionate response” to levies imposed by the Trump administration.

Several Canadian provinces have taken US liquor off store shelves as part of retaliatory measures against Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“I mean, that’s worse than a tariff, because it’s literally taking your sales away, [and] completely removing our products from the shelves,” Whiting said on a post-earnings call.

Canada on Tuesday also imposed 25% tariffs on goods imported from the US, including wine, spirits and beer.

Whiting, however, said that Canada accounted for only 1% of their total sales and that the company could withstand the hit.

He added the company would watch out for what happens in Mexico, which according to its annual report, made up 7% of its 2024 sales.

Shares of the company were up about 8% after the liquor maker reaffirmed its annual forecasts which accounted for the impact of tariffs.

While Whiting warned of “continued uncertainty and headwinds in the external environment”, he said that he was confident of the company’s trajectory.

Brown-Forman has been reeling from a slowdown in demand so far this year, led by the US, Canada and Europe, which offset benefits from stronger sales in emerging markets such as Mexico and Poland.

The company has undertaken cost-cutting measures, including workforce reduction. Analysts have said this is a response to a more challenging environment both for the company and the broader spirits industry.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/05/jack-daniels-canada-trump-tariffs

 

[Jacket time]

Jack Daniel’s maker says Canada pulling US alcohol off shelves ‘worse than tariff’​

"Shares of the company were up about 8% after the liquor maker reaffirmed its annual forecasts which accounted for the impact of tariffs."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/05/jack-daniels-canada-trump-tariffs

boo hoo

 

[Jacket time]

 

[ChosenOne]

Years of a booming economy in his first term, "that was Obama's economy", weeks after taking office with rising unemployment and inflation long before he even took office, "OMG, Trump ruined the economy".

If you understand math, even slightly you can see that Trump did NOTHING to distinguish himself from the economy momentum he inherited from Obama. If Obama stayed in you would expect those trend lines to also look the same thru Trumps first 3 years.

And yes when Trump imposes Tariffs that immediately shakes consumer confidence, promises another inflation boom, and where companies are now freezing spending out of not knowing what is happening tomorrow and if america will tip into recession, that can instantly start to tilt the economy towards crises. Consumer and corporate confidence are a real thing.

 

[ChosenOne]

 

[ermac88]

Do you seriously not understand what that title means? Like do you actually think that means what you originally posted? Or do you not comprehend what your statement was and what that title means? If you want I can explain it to you.

Real GDP growth by quarter U.S. 2024 | Statista

The U.S. economy grew slightly in the third quarter of 2024.

www.statista.com

You can see the real GDP growth rate rebound quickly in Q3 20 right after Q2 20. This was because of COVID-19 and the recovery afterwards.


It is frustrating arguing with people who only read headlines; and beyond that ones who don't even understand what they are reading.

You're mistaken thinking there is an argument here.



You denied we experienced the lowest GDP ever under trump, you were presented the FACT that we did.

Instead of acknowledging said fact, you attribute it to something ELSE, and talking about a rebound.


If you're experiencing frustration; it's because you're internally struggling with information you were in denial of.

 

[ermac88]

And the mass federal firings,

and freezing of payments to federal contractors.


Did all the conservatives forget about when Reagan explained how excessive tariffs and isolationist policies were wrong for America and would only hurt the US economy?

An interesting read, I just came across.

President Reagan on Trade & Tariffs​

President Reagan on Trade & Tariffs

www.ipi.org

But lets be completely honest trump's maga is antithetical to conservationism/republicans for what? the last 50 years?

In so many jarring ways, trump is the polar opposite of the republican party. He's transparently self serving.

It would be fascinating to see how maga people would view Reagan running against trump today.

 

[Scheme]

You're mistaken thinking there is an argument here.



You denied we experienced the lowest GDP ever under trump, you were presented the FACT that we did.

Instead of acknowledging said fact, you attribute it to something ELSE, and talking about a rebound.


If you're experiencing frustration; it's because you're internally struggling with information you were in denial of.

Dude, are you being serious? Or are you just trolling?

Here is a graph of GDP:

Gross Domestic Product

View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Look at the graph. It's from the Federal Reserve in St. Louis and uses the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as a source. In Q2 2020, GDP was $20 trillion. It was never higher than that before Q4 2017, also during Trump's term. Literally since the founding of our country has it never been higher than under Trump's term at that point in time. There is no data point of GDP that you can show before Trump's term where GDP is higher than it was during Trump's term, and you can see that for yourself in that graph.

So how exactly is that "the lowest GDP ever"? You confused two different statistics and claim one is the lowest when anyone with a middle school degree could deduce that could never be the case.

I'm frustrated because you make incorrect claims that aren't just wrong, they show an outright absence of any ability to process economic data. Anyone with a functioning understanding of even the most basic principles of economics could instantly tell you how incorrect it is to say we experienced "the lowest GDP in history under Trump". It's a ridiculous statement and the reason you can't see that is because you simply don't understand what you are saying. You are not equipped with the knowledge to possibly know what you are talking about when you say a statement like that and attempt to defend it.