The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Both Navarro and the Zayats are some of my least favourite people in racing, T, so it's no big surprise they found each other. That's a marriage made in...well.

    I did kinda post that in support of my theory on how Improbable will be used too. In a backwards kind of way. Just a small example to say that this sport isn't exactly filled with people with morals.
     
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  2. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Morning lines of 5/1, 6/1, 15/1, 20/1, and 30/1 on the 5 horses I'm interested in. Yeah, that's okay since I doubt I'll be win betting this race. Probably just exactas and tris since I don't have a 6th option yet for the super. Still a few days to find one, though, and I still have to complete my final tally on these with my program.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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  4. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    @t6p

    Are you going to be doing your own stuff as far as capping the Derby goes this year? Just wondering, because if not then I can send you what I have. Or even if you are I can send it to you if you think it will help you in your ticket structuring for those you think are playable for you.

    I finished up compiling everything earlier today since all the info is available now. And things have changed a little bit with some of the options I was talking about the other day. At least one of them doesn't look so hot with everything complete. One or two also look better.
     
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Just want to point something out in regards to the favourite's (Omaha Beach) pace figures in his races so far;

    90-90-104
    88-92-100 (beat Game Winner by a head bob this race with Game Winner coming into this race after a 4.5 month layoff)
    91-101-90 (After this race, Omaha Beach would then enter the next race against Game Winner with the NPT, E2, and LET patterns, which resulted in a career best effort for him next out)
    86-92-96
    -----
    86-76-96
    -----
    83-86-85
    60-56-89

    Like I said, Omaha Beach entered that race against Game Winner (the Rebel) with a beautiful pattern whereas Game Winner came in off a lengthy 4+ month layoff. In the race a primed (according to my concepts concerning patterns) Omaha Beach also got to share early running space on or near the lead with a 48/1 shot, a 30/1 shot, and a 78/1 shot, and did so in a race with fractions on the slower side. i.e. There was basically no real extra mental energy put on him by his competition, nor extra physical energy demanded of him by the pace being set.

    Still it was only a head bob at the line.

    Now it's Game Winner's turn to come into the race as one of the postive pattern horses both in his pace and race figures. On the other side, Omaha Beach certainly doesn't have any positive patterns going into the Derby, is making his 5th start of the year (a big negative as pointed out in that ThoroGraph video I post a couple days ago), and if you believe the ThoroGraph figure he got last race, he's coming into it with a negative big new top (4 1/2 pts), as well as having only 3 weeks rest to recover from it.

    You want Omaha Beach at 7/2 or thereabouts? Please, by all means. Maybe he will get it done as my concepts certainly aren't fool proof, and he at least looks like some kind of contender (albeit a lower ranked one) now that my data for the Derby is complete. But hey.

    There's actuallly no need for the shenanigans I described a few days ago. But those can come into play as well. Nor is Omaha Beach going to be sharing early running space with cheap horses like in the Rebel (and in the Arkansas Derby as well for that matter). This time he'll be surrounded by high class G1 and G2 winners in the early going that will most certainly affect his energy levels.

    Just saying.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2019
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  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Alright, that's it for me as far as talking about the Derby goes on here. I'm all ready to go. And hopefully I shut up about all this pattern stuff in the future as well since I really don't want too many to understand what they are.

    Good luck if you're betting the race gentlemen.
     
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  8. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I was planning to Shark, but it's looking less and less likely that I'll have the time. I have a ton going on at work and in my personal life right now unfortunately. Seems to be never ending actually, haha.

    If you don't mind sending what you have along, I'd love to take a look. Really appreciate you always looking out bud. The good news is that I'm pretty sure I'll be home and able to watch the race on Saturday.
     
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  9. kenfloshogun

    kenfloshogun Blue Belt

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    Always get hyped for Derby day. Seems like the field is wide open this year. Good luck everyone.
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    This year's Derby just got a whole lot less interesting as far as being a wagering opportunity for me;

     
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  11. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    At least I got the "he's not going to be able to run" part of my whole "he's not going to be able run a peak effort required to win the Derby" thought process (or, more accurately, data process) when it came to Omaha Beach.

    That's got to be worth absolutely nothing, right?

    And @t6p. The 2nd ranked horse in both pace balance and counter energy becomes that much more interesting with this news because of, you know, reasons.
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    Updated morning line odds after that scratch;




    Bodexpress gets in as the 1st and only AE with Signalman pointed towards the Preakness. But I'm not going to bother running the numbers for him since he's a much better candidate to finish last than to have any impact in regards to the payouts.
     
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  13. Black Paladin

    Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    "What is dead may never die."

    (P.S. I'm back, bitches. Black Paladin on the scene again. Triple Crown season is the reason.)
     
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  14. Black Paladin

    Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    "All Gronkowskis have a knack for spoiling shit for people."--Los Angeles Rams
     
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  15. kenfloshogun

    kenfloshogun Blue Belt

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    Few Matchup Props.
     

    Attached Files:

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  16. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    just won 1stst leg of pick 3 at laurel race 3- 2nd leg 3 horses 10,4,8 i like the longshot 10
     
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  17. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 3rd?

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    @BluntTrauma21 (and anybody else)




    This should give you a really great idea on what kind of odds you'll be getting tomorrow unless there is some jerk out their who drops a 6 or even 7 figure bet down on one of them sometime tomorrow.
     
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  18. timmyclax22

    timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    Hey @Sharkey and @t6p mind posting your bets in easy to understand form?

    I’d love to blindly follow and root for us.
     
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  19. eataface

    eataface Green Belt

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    Best of luck to everyone ...been awhile since I posted in here...busy life and such.
    I like the following
    Tax
    Tacitus
    WWW

    @Sharkey @t6p @Naught2Sixty hope you both have had a profitable year so far

    Sorry knew I forgot someone
     
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  20. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Black Belt

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    Good luck on the Derby today fellas.
     

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