Just want to point something out in regards to the favourite's (Omaha Beach) pace figures in his races so far;
90-90-104
88-92-100 (beat Game Winner by a head bob this race with Game Winner coming into this race after a 4.5 month layoff)
91-101-90 (After this race, Omaha Beach would then enter the next race against Game Winner with the NPT, E2, and LET patterns, which resulted in a career best effort for him next out)
86-92-96
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86-76-96
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83-86-85
60-56-89
Like I said, Omaha Beach entered that race against Game Winner (the Rebel) with a beautiful pattern whereas Game Winner came in off a lengthy 4+ month layoff. In the race a primed (according to my concepts concerning patterns) Omaha Beach also got to share early running space on or near the lead with a 48/1 shot, a 30/1 shot, and a 78/1 shot, and did so in a race with fractions on the slower side. i.e. There was basically no real extra mental energy put on him by his competition, nor extra physical energy demanded of him by the pace being set.
Still it was only a head bob at the line.
Now it's Game Winner's turn to come into the race as one of the postive pattern horses both in his pace and race figures. On the other side, Omaha Beach certainly doesn't have any positive patterns going into the Derby, is making his 5th start of the year (a big negative as pointed out in that ThoroGraph video I post a couple days ago), and if you believe the ThoroGraph figure he got last race, he's coming into it with a negative big new top (4 1/2 pts), as well as having only 3 weeks rest to recover from it.
You want Omaha Beach at 7/2 or thereabouts? Please, by all means. Maybe he will get it done as my concepts certainly aren't fool proof, and he at least looks like some kind of contender (albeit a lower ranked one) now that my data for the Derby is complete. But hey.
There's actuallly no need for the shenanigans I described a few days ago. But those can come into play as well. Nor is Omaha Beach going to be sharing early running space with cheap horses like in the Rebel (and in the Arkansas Derby as well for that matter). This time he'll be surrounded by high class G1 and G2 winners in the early going that will most certainly affect his energy levels.
Just saying.
