The Ponies Thread (part 2)

I'm playing some exacta and trifecta boxes based on Shark's #'s.

Race 4 I have 3,5,7,9
Race 6 I have 1,3,12
Race 9 I have 10,11,12

Good luck guys!
 
mkess101 said:
I'm playing some exacta and trifecta boxes based on Shark's #'s.

Race 4 I have 3,5,7,9
Race 6 I have 1,3,12
Race 9 I have 10,11,12

Good luck guys!
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I never want to talk somebody off a play they make after they have it planned already, Mike, and especially today because I think you'll be okay. But, for the future, be careful about just boxing the top numbers. I think you can get away with having a decent chance most of the time doing that. But others time not so much. I can remember a race you played last week where you boxed the top 3 on the numbers and they all happened to be early speed types who had conflicting styles to each other. The winner stood a good chance of coming out of that group, but the place horse not so much just because of the similar styles those 3 runners had. I can't remember the exact percentage even though I just looked it up a few days ago, but it was 80-something% of races see an exacta made up of horses with running styles that don't conflict with each other in the early and mid portions of the race. If the top 2 horses are both early speed types vying for the same position and putting pressure on each other, 1 of those 2 is very likely to concede to the other well before the line and thus opening up the 2nd position (and possibly 3rd as well) for a horse who wasn't trying to oppose either of them til the very end.

This is why I should be posting the pace lines for you guys as well, and not just the final number. The final number is designed to show the horse's chances of winning. But not necessarily to place or show if there is another horse of similar quality who also has similar pace lines. If two good horses are exerting the same amount of energy throughout most of the race and at similar points in the race something has to give between them, and usually does.
 
Sharkey said:
I never want to talk somebody off a play they make after they have it planned already, Mike, and especially today because I think you'll be okay. But, for the future, be careful about just boxing the top numbers. I think you can get away with having a decent chance most of the time doing that. But others time not so much. I can remember a race you played last week where you boxed the top 3 on the numbers and they all happened to be early speed types who had conflicting styles to each other. The winner stood a good chance of coming out of that group, but the place horse not so much just because of the similar styles those 3 runners had. I can't remember the exact percentage even though I just looked it up a few days ago, but it was 80-something% of races see an exacta made up of horses with running styles that don't conflict with each other in the early and mid portions of the race. If the top 2 horses are both early speed types vying for the same position and putting pressure on each other, 1 of those 2 is very likely to concede to the other well before the line and thus opening up the 2nd position (and possibly 3rd as well) for a horse who wasn't trying to oppose either of them til the very end.

This is why I should be posting the pace lines for you guys as well, and not just the final number. The final number is designed to show the horse's chances of winning. But not necessarily to place or show if there is another horse of similar quality who also has similar pace lines. If two good horses are exerting the same amount of energy throughout most of the race and at similar points in the race something has to give between them, and usually does.
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Great stuff Shark. Since I like playing the exotics for very small stakes with the horses, I'll make sure to adjust to reflect what you are saying. Logically it makes perfect sense, and even as someone who only casually follows the sport I've seen it play out the way you are saying often enough to know it's true.
 
mkess101 said:
Great stuff Shark. Since I like playing the exotics for very small stakes with the horses, I'll make sure to adjust to reflect what you are saying. Logically it makes perfect sense, and even as someone who only casually follows the sport I've seen it play out the way you are saying often enough to know it's true.
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Cheers Mike. Even if you're playing them small you'd still like to win those bets I'm sure, so we'll try to give the best chance of doing so.
 
This morning line odds maker at Remington can go suck a dick. That's all I have to say.
 
Sharkey said:
This morning line odds maker at Remington can go suck a dick. That's all I have to say.
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Haha agreed Shark. Out of curiosity, if you don't mind sharing now that the races are over, what were your picks for the contest yesterday?
 
t6p said:
Haha agreed Shark. Out of curiosity, if you don't mind sharing now that the races are over, what were your picks for the contest yesterday?
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I picked the same horses Blunt did (#3,#1,#7), which was the same ones you did for the first two races. I picked those foolishly expecting something close to their 6/1 and 8/1 morning lines as well. Not 8/5 which is what that 8/1 morning line horse won at. That was ridiculous. Because we are forced to get our picks in early we're forced to rely on the morning line odds makers being good at his job. Which he isn't. I don't expect 100% accuracy of course or even that close to it. But when you start listing horses' morning line odds being a multiple of 5 of what they actually go off at, which this guy has done 3 times just this past week with just the horses I've been interested in, then that's uncalled for.
 
Sharkey said:
I picked the same horses Blunt did (#3,#1,#7), which was the same ones you did for the first two races. I picked those foolishly expecting something close to their 6/1 and 8/1 morning lines as well. Not 8/5 which is what that 8/1 morning line horse won at. That was ridiculous. Because we are forced to get our picks in early we're forced to rely on the morning line odds makers being good at his job. Which he isn't. I don't expect 100% accuracy of course or even that close to it. But when you start listing horses' morning line odds being a multiple of 5 of what they actually go off at, which this guy has done 3 times just this past week with just the horses I've been interested in, then that's uncalled for.
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100% agree Shark. That is definitely a joke.
 
@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

I finished up Remington for tonight, and broke the pace lines down further into just first half and second half pace figures, so hopefully it's a little bit easier to understand for you guys if trying to figure out race flows and such.

Remington Park for Thurs, Sept 20th;

==========

Race 2 (8f-Dirt) (5:37);

#4 D'urban Park 2/1 (E) ********* 172.2 (FHP-89.9,SHP-88.2)
#2 Primarily Gold 9/5 (EP) ****** 169.1 (FHP-92.1,SHP-85.3)
#7 South Texas Drawl 12/1 (EP) ** 163.9 (FHP-82.7,SHP-83.7)
#3 Captain Payback 6/1 (S) ****** 163.2 (FHP-75.9,SHP-85.3)
#6 I Call Shotgun 10/1 (EP) ***** 157.3 (FHP-81.2,SHP-79.4) ***E2 angle***
#5 Cash King 20/1 (EP) ********** 156.0 (FHP-82.1,SHP-80.1)
#8 Dynabeaver 20/1 (P) ********** 152.3 (FHP-73.9,SHP-80.3)
#1 Dr. Philan 9/2 (EP) ********** 148.7 (FHP-74.9,SHP-79.2)

==========

Race 3 (6f-Dirt) (6:04);

#3 Blame Smarty 8/5 (EP) ******* 179.0 (FHP-92.5,SHP-90.0)
#8 Rocky Boy Indian 8/1 (S) **** 173.4 (FHP-88.2,SHP-87.9)
#5 At It Early 15/1 (EP) ******* 171.0 (FHP-90.2,SHP-84.1)
#1 Wally Peabody 3/1 (P) ******* 169.7 (FHP-85.8,SHP-84.2) ***NPT angle***
#7 High Class Taste 12/1 (P) *** 169.1 (FHP-88.2,SHP-83.7)
#6 Best Discretion 7/2 (EP) **** 166.9 (FHP-88.0,SHP-82.0)
#2 Joan's Delight 20/1 (P) ***** 157.9 (FHP-81.9,SHP-82.3)
#4 Major Mingo 30/1 (E) ******** 157.4 (FHP-87.0,SHP-77.1)
#9 Moyahua 10/1 (EP) *********** 130.8 (FHP-85.6,SHP-83.4)

==========

Race 9 (6f-Dirt) (8:45);

#2 Serengeti 5/2 (E) ************ 182.0 (FHP-98.4,SHP-87.9)
#5 Magic Command 4/1 (P) ******** 176.4 (FHP-89.0,SHP-91.4)
#8 Dance Doctor 15/1 (EP) ******* 172.0 (FHP-89.7,SHP-85.5)
#1 United Patriot 3/1 (EP) ****** 170.4 (FHP-87.0,SHP-86.3)
#12 Chukka 15/1 (EP) ************ 169.3 (FHP-85.9,SHP-85.5)
#10 Catale Storm 20/1 (E) ******* 167.3 (FHP-93.8,SHP-79.8) (??? 2 races of data)
#9 Fred C 20/1 (E) ************** 166.8 (FHP-97.0,SHP-75.2)
#6 Boss Hoss Ross 30/1 (P) ****** 162.4 (FHP-84.2,SHP-80.3)
#13 Daaher's Success 12/1 (EP) ** 162.2 (FHP-83.1,SHP-81.6)
#11 Bigshot Lacewell 15/1 (EP) ** 162.0 (FHP-83.1,SHP-79.6)
#4 McKlintok 20/1 (S) *********** 158.2 (FHP-80.1,SHP-80.2)
#14 Man U 12/1 (EP) ************* 158.2 (FHP-79.6,SHP-78.3)
#3 Visual Punch 15/1 (P) ******** 156.8 (FHP-89.3,SHP-86.4)
#7 Li'l Toc's Money 30/1 (P) **** 153.3 (FHP-79.5,SHP-74.3)

==========
 
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I'm thinking about ending my little 3 day break and hitting some exactas and trifectas on those Remington races tonight. I *think* I'm seeing where the wagers are at anyways.
 
Sharkey said:
@t6p, @BluntTrauma21

I finished up Remington for tonight, and broke the pace lines down further into just first half and second half pace figures, so hopefully it's a little bit easier to understand for you guys if trying to figure out race flows and such.

Remington Park for Thurs, Sept 20th;

==========

Race 2 (8f-Dirt) (5:37);

#4 D'urban Park 2/1 (E) ********* 172.2 (FHP-89.9,SHP-88.2)
#2 Primarily Gold 9/5 (EP) ****** 169.1 (FHP-92.1,SHP-85.3)
#7 South Texas Drawl 12/1 (EP) ** 163.9 (FHP-82.7,SHP-83.7)
#3 Captain Payback 6/1 (S) ****** 163.2 (FHP-75.9,SHP-85.3)
#6 I Call Shotgun 10/1 (EP) ***** 157.3 (FHP-81.2,SHP-79.4) ***E2 angle***
#5 Cash King 20/1 (EP) ********** 156.0 (FHP-82.1,SHP-80.1)
#8 Dynabeaver 20/1 (P) ********** 152.3 (FHP-73.9,SHP-80.3)
#1 Dr. Philan 9/2 (EP) ********** 148.7 (FHP-74.9,SHP-79.2)

==========

Race 3 (6f-Dirt) (6:04);

#3 Blame Smarty 8/5 (EP) ******* 179.0 (FHP-92.5,SHP-90.0)
#8 Rocky Boy Indian 8/1 (S) **** 173.4 (FHP-88.2,SHP-87.9)
#5 At It Early 15/1 (EP) ******* 171.0 (FHP-90.2,SHP-84.1)
#1 Wally Peabody 3/1 (P) ******* 169.7 (FHP-85.8,SHP-84.2) ***NPT angle***
#7 High Class Taste 12/1 (P) *** 169.1 (FHP-88.2,SHP-83.7)
#6 Best Discretion 7/2 (EP) **** 166.9 (FHP-88.0,SHP-82.0)
#2 Joan's Delight 20/1 (P) ***** 157.9 (FHP-81.9,SHP-82.3)
#4 Major Mingo 30/1 (E) ******** 157.4 (FHP-87.0,SHP-77.1)
#9 Moyahua 10/1 (EP) *********** 130.8 (FHP-85.6,SHP-83.4)

==========

Race 9 (6f-Dirt) (8:45);

#2 Serengeti 5/2 (E) ************ 182.0 (FHP-98.4,SHP-87.9)
#5 Magic Command 4/1 (P) ******** 176.4 (FHP-89.0,SHP-91.4)
#8 Dance Doctor 15/1 (EP) ******* 172.0 (FHP-89.7,SHP-85.5)
#1 United Patriot 3/1 (EP) ****** 170.4 (FHP-87.0,SHP-86.3)
#12 Chukka 15/1 (EP) ************ 169.3 (FHP-85.9,SHP-85.5)
#10 Catale Storm 20/1 (E) ******* 167.3 (FHP-93.8,SHP-79.8) (??? 2 races of data)
#9 Fred C 20/1 (E) ************** 166.8 (FHP-97.0,SHP-75.2)
#6 Boss Hoss Ross 30/1 (P) ****** 162.4 (FHP-84.2,SHP-80.3)
#13 Daaher's Success 12/1 (EP) ** 162.2 (FHP-83.1,SHP-81.6)
#11 Bigshot Lacewell 15/1 (EP) ** 162.0 (FHP-83.1,SHP-79.6)
#4 McKlintok 20/1 (S) *********** 158.2 (FHP-80.1,SHP-80.2)
#14 Man U 12/1 (EP) ************* 158.2 (FHP-79.6,SHP-78.3)
#3 Visual Punch 15/1 (P) ******** 156.8 (FHP-89.3,SHP-86.4)
#7 Li'l Toc's Money 30/1 (P) **** 153.3 (FHP-79.5,SHP-74.3)

==========
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Thanks as always bud. Going with:

Race 2: #7 South Texas Drawl
Race 3: #8 Rocky Boy Indian
Race 9: #5 Magic Command
 
t6p said:
Thanks as always bud. Going with:

Race 2: #7 South Texas Drawl 5/2
Race 3: #8 Rocky Boy Indian 8/5
Race 9: #5 Magic Command 4/5
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Just letting you know what odds you'll be getting, T. :eek:
 
Apologies @Sharkey , can you explain the fhp and shp ratings again? My bad, I got confused..... Again. Sorry. First/second half pace numbers or am I just showing the dumbass side of me again, lol?
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Apologies @Sharkey , can you explain the fhp and shp ratings again? My bad, I got confused..... Again. Sorry. First/second half pace numbers or am I just showing the dumbass side of me again, lol?
Click to expand...

Haha. Yeah, it's just the pace the horse runs at over the first half of the race and then the second half. I tried to simplify it for you guys instead of throwing 8 categories at you. I'm glad you're reading into those, though. Let me know of any observations you have.
 
Sharkey said:
Haha. Yeah, it's just the pace the horse runs at over the first half of the race and then the second half. I tried to simplify it for you guys instead of throwing 8 categories at you. I'm glad you're reading into those, though. Let me know of any observations you have.
Click to expand...
would you say that the second half pace is more important for turf races? I feel like we've talked about that being more of a factor on the turf before.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
would you say that the second half pace is more important for turf races? I feel like we've talked about that being more of a factor on the turf before.
Click to expand...

Perhaps a little bit more in mid and route distance races on the grass, but those type of races are going to see most of the horses in the field slanted towards the second half just because of the nature in which turf routes are ran anyways. An early speed type being allowed to sit up front all by himself and controlling the pace is just as dangerous in turf routes as they are on dirt, though.
 
I'm going to go with some #4 over #3,#7 exactas in race 2 at Remington.
 
In race 3 I'm going with what is basically a #3,#8 exacta box, although with a little bit more invested on the #3 winning ($6 and $4).

I'll be doing the same in race 9 with another exacta box using the #2,#5, but again putting a little more on the #2 winning.
 
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