The HW division is a perfect example of the sport-evolution fallacy

krelianx

krelianx

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Yes, the sport generally evolves, and the talent overall improves in time. But from this people conclude that every division now is necessarily composed of superior talent than before. That is not always the case.

HW is the paradigm example of that. Lots of people went ahead to claim that guys like Gane, Volkov, Tuivasa, Blaydes, Almeida and Lewis are "next generation talent". In truth, the HW division is in a pretty dismal shape, worse than I can remember it being since the Tim Sylvia days, and certainly a lot worse than after the Strikeforce and Pride acquisitions.

Nothing Volkov does Semmy Schilt did not do better; nothing Tuivasa does did Mark Hunt not do better. Almeida does nothing we haven't seen from guys like Arona, Filho, or Werdum.

Guys like Cyril Gane, who is not even a particularly accomplished kickboxer, is seen to be somehow superior to people like Overeem, Schilt, or Mirko, who were far more accomplished.
 
It does seem like HW division used to be much better or at least had bigger stars. It is the one division and possibly LHW as well, where you'd say the previous generation could probably beat most of the current generation with a few exceptions.
 
How much do the yank football players make, insane numbers even as bench warmers.
What do rugby players make, a tonne.

If you're a big boy and athleticly gifted, you got good avenues for money.


Edit: the strong but shit for brains types can probably make good money here in Aus as a construction labourer/trades assistant. Not sure if that is the case in the US.
 
kneebartotheface said:
How much do the yank football players make, insane numbers even as bench warmers.
What do rugby players make, a tonne.

If you're a big boy and athleticly gifted, you got good avenues for money.
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Pretty much this. If you are over 6ft and weigh 220+ and are even relatively athletic there are far better ways to make money than trying to make it in the ufc.
 
krelianx said:
Nothing Volkov does Semmy Schilt did not do better; nothing Tuivasa does did Mark Hunt not do better. Almeida does nothing we haven't seen from guys like Arona, Filho, or Werdum.
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Volkov = much better TDD than Semmy Schilt.
Tuivasa = better kicks/knees/cardio than Hunt.
Jailton = better takedowns than Arona, Filho, Werdum.
 
krelianx said:
Yes, the sport generally evolves, and the talent overall improves in time. But from this people conclude that every division now is necessarily composed of superior talent than before. That is not always the case.

HW is the paradigm example of that. Lots of people went ahead to claim that guys like Gane, Volkov, Tuivasa, Blaydes, Almeida and Lewis are "next generation talent". In truth, the HW division is in a pretty dismal shape, worse than I can remember it being since the Tim Sylvia days, and certainly a lot worse than after the Strikeforce and Pride acquisitions.

Nothing Volkov does Semmy Schilt did not do better; nothing Tuivasa does did Mark Hunt not do better. Almeida does nothing we haven't seen from guys like Arona, Filho, or Werdum.

Guys like Cyril Gane, who is not even a particularly accomplished kickboxer, is seen to be somehow superior to people like Overeem, Schilt, or Mirko, who were far more accomplished.
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Gane might not be more accomplished than Overeem, but he's a legit undefeated Muay Thai fighter. Those tin belts don't mean as much as people think. I'd put Gane up against a prime Overeem in a kickboxing match any day of the week.
 
Weight cutting is a big reason for that. Some fighters like Poatan can fight at MW while 20 years ago they would have been HW fighters.

Imagine Jones, Alex, Jiri, younger Glover, Reyes, prime Gus… fighting at HW.
 
There’s an argument it’s gotten worse due to steroids becoming harder to take, it obviously happens but not as much, so you’re getting the same skill set in a weaker body. Would anyone favour almeida over werdum? Genuinely?
 
Poirierfan said:
Gane might not be more accomplished than Overeem, but he's a legit undefeated Muay Thai fighter. Those tin belts don't mean as much as people think. I'd put Gane up against a prime Overeem in a kickboxing match any day of the week.
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The Overeem that beat Hari, Teixeira, Aerts, and Spong was too big and strong imo. Also he was juiced beyond belief.
 
RonDante said:
There’s an argument it’s gotten worse due to steroids becoming harder to take, it obviously happens but not as much, so you’re getting the same skill set in a weaker body. Would anyone favour almeida over werdum? Genuinely?
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It's not only that.

Think of the skillset of people like Barnett, Nog, Rizzo, Fedor, Sergei, Werdum, Cain, etc.

Then think of freaking Derrick Lewis or Gane, who cannot defend a takedown.
 
krelianx said:
Yes, the sport generally evolves, and the talent overall improves in time. But from this people conclude that every division now is necessarily composed of superior talent than before. That is not always the case.

HW is the paradigm example of that. Lots of people went ahead to claim that guys like Gane, Volkov, Tuivasa, Blaydes, Almeida and Lewis are "next generation talent". In truth, the HW division is in a pretty dismal shape, worse than I can remember it being since the Tim Sylvia days, and certainly a lot worse than after the Strikeforce and Pride acquisitions.

Nothing Volkov does Semmy Schilt did not do better; nothing Tuivasa does did Mark Hunt not do better. Almeida does nothing we haven't seen from guys like Arona, Filho, or Werdum.

Guys like Cyril Gane, who is not even a particularly accomplished kickboxer, is seen to be somehow superior to people like Overeem, Schilt, or Mirko, who were far more accomplished.
Click to expand...

Really I think "evolution" in MMA was quite a limited spell dating back to the 90's and very early 00's when training for evolved rounded MMA fighters was being worked out, it just made sense for the UFC to latch onto that idea and push that it continued at a similar pace as a well to sell the idea the modern product is always "the best ever". Espeically as they have a highly ignorant fanbase in the palms of their hands, fans who like to think of themselves as experts but really are just pumped full of UFC spiel.

What I do think we've seen is MORE ok training to a good level on offer at probably a somewhat cheaper rate which I think really feeds into how the UFC is run. They do not actually need that much in the way of elite talent, just enough to main event cards and honestly with HW often not even that with the appeal of big KOs. They need lots of "ok" fighters to fill up their roster so yeah this level of talent is probably deeper than 15 years ago as a result.

What they do not do very much is invest in higher level talent from other sports, guys like Fedor, Mirko, Hunt, etc promoters went out and signed them up from other sports. That tends to happen less often now and BJJ becoming more sucessful as well fewer BJJ look to comit to MMA in their primes without serious money offered. Why pay to sign up Tyrone Spong say when you can get some okish guy who can get the odd big KO with a lower skill level?
 
It's easily the worst male weight class in the UFC regarding fighting ability. People who haven't been doing MMA for that long can easily become top 5 contenders. It's just a common fact that there aren't that many big men who also happen to be great MMA fighters out there.

krelianx said:
It's not only that.

Think of the skillset of people like Barnett, Nog, Rizzo, Fedor, Sergei, Werdum, Cain, etc.

Then think of freaking Derrick Lewis or Gane, who cannot defend a takedown.
Click to expand...

I wonder if people like Emelianenko, Nogueira and Velasquez were coming up in this era of fighting, would they maybe have cut down to 205 pounds? There are exceptions like Almeida out there, but more fighters nowadays are serious weight cutters compared to the period from 2005-2010.

Maybe fighters in the current 205-pound weight class, such as Prochazka, Ankalaev, Blachowicz, or Walker, would've been 230-240 pound heavyweights in those days.
 
How can a 2002 sherbro say that Volkov does nothing better than Shilt under MMA rules is beyond me.
Semmy had problems to control the clinch and stop the TD from a WW Akira Shoji.

Ngannou, much more rounded MMA fighter than Shilt, has just outboxed the boxing champ btw
 
No its not it just doesn't apply to HW.

Evolution doesn't just happen the talent pool needs to change. And given how much MMA fighters make evolution is going to be more sluggish at HW then at other weight classes. Also HW has evolved its just evolved much less.
 
kneebartotheface said:
How much do the yank football players make, insane numbers even as bench warmers.
What do rugby players make, a tonne.

If you're a big boy and athleticly gifted, you got good avenues for money.


Edit: the strong but shit for brains types can probably make good money here in Aus as a construction labourer/trades assistant. Not sure if that is the case in the US.
Click to expand...

Rugby players make about as much as your average UFC fighter.
 
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