Where would you rank him in the division then?
He's clearly a top 10 guy imo, but he's also clearly not ready to contend for a title, but I'd favor him over guys like KZ and Yair, especially after seeing his conditioning last saturday. I think his ranking at number 6 is accurate. Look at the guys he's lost to recently. Zabit (top 3 guy, and most people believe Kattar would beat him in a 5 rounder) and Max, arguably the goat of the division. There's no shame in losing to those guys. I disagree that the Ige fight was a dog fight—it was competitive, but Ige lost 4 rounds and the only success he had was injuring Kattar's already broken nose.
Kattar has been fighting good competition since his debut. Fili had just beaten the 15th ranked guy in the world before Kattar beat him on 2 weeks notice. Burgos was undefeated and on a 4 fight ufc win streak when kattar beat him and has since proven he's a top 15 guy. Moicano was ranked, Lamas was top 10 former title challenger, Zabit is top 5, stephens is a perenial top 15 guy, ige is top 15 guy. He has a winning record despite fighting mostly ranked guys.
So yeah, I think 6th in the rankings is a fair spot for him.
I agree. I don’t think his ranking is off base at all. What I think is/was off base is the sense that he’s an elite contender on the rise.
Kattar is really good. I think it’s safe to say that his chin, endurance and heart are all excellent. But he doesn’t wrestle. He isn’t a dangerous submission threat. He isn’t a great leg kicker. He is solid but not extraordinary with knees, elbows, body kicks and head kicks He doesn’t seem like a top notch tactician. He isn’t an elite counter puncher and doesn’t look comfortable going backwards. But he’s also not a huge forward-pressure fighter like Max. He has good power but he’s not sparking guys left and right like someone like McGregor was able to at 145. He has smooth punching combinations but still has a habit of taking turns with his opponent (this killed him against Max because Max doesn’t do that, and it’s the reason IMO that the Ige and Burgos fights were closer than they needed to be).
What does that add up to? To me, it adds up to a guy who will beat solid guys who aren’t elite anywhere, especially guys who will sit in boxing range and take turns throwing punches. But I think he is pretty vulnerable against guys with elite skills or game plans.
Are you confident he beats Barboza? I’m not. Edson will batter your legs if you don’t pressure him. Pressure isn’t really Calvin’s game though — he’ll land 2 and 3 punch combos if you stand in front of him but he won’t really smother you. I can certainly see him knocking Edson down and/or out but I can also see a Hooker type of fight where he gets chewed up.
TKZ is IMO the fight to make and it’s probably his ideal matchup, because the Zombie is a guy who sits in boxing range and takes turns. His grappling is better than Cal’s but he’s not an offensive wrestler so they’ll probably just box.
Yair is a good fight too. If Yair commits to leg kicks I think he’d likely be too fast and diverse for Calvin, but he hasn’t proven he an consistently do that yet. Getting outclassed by the Zombie was a red flag that won’t go away until he beats an elite opponent.
Those guys (along with maybe Josh Emmett, who I would currently favor Calvin to defeat using the Michael Johnson blueprint) are who I consider to be his peers in the rankings.
When we look ahead in the division I don’t see much joy. You’re correct that many of us (myself included) think Kattar might well defeat Zabit in a five rounder. I in fact bet on Kattar in the first fight, thinking that maybe he’d turn the tables quickly enough to win the second round or earn a stoppage in the third. But IMO that’s simply due to a very unique Achilles heel of a Zabit (the alleged diaphragm issue). I would’ve liked Cal’s chances against Ortega for the same reasons I favored TKZ, but I think Ortega 2.0 has too many weapons. Volk IMO would have no problem developing a gameplan to neutralize such a boxing heavy attack. And we just saw Max.
What about the guys working their way up? Are we convinced that a well-rounded guy like Ilia Topuria won’t give him fits? Or a rangey kickboxer like Giga Chikadze? Once again, I am not.
I don’t mean to rain on the guy this much. I really enjoy watching him fight. But right now I see his future more on the level of a Jim Miller, Jeremy Stephens or Matt Brown (very good veteran fighters who lose every time they fight an elite opponent) than a Gaethje, Poirier or Masvidal who reached a similar fork in the road but were able to add some wrinkles and become a title contender.
Jusy my two cents. I would love to see him prove me incorrect.
