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Economy stonks v27: banks, the kings of vega

HOLA said:
mcgregor-vs-khabib.gif


Well, i've tapped out. It's over.

Sold BABA today. Bought in from Dec 2021 to March 2022. Made a return of -26.2%. Not my finest moment. Fortunately I only risked about 0.2% of my portfolio on it, so i'll live. Reading about all their spinoffs makes my head feel like it is going to spinoff. I'm out.

Also sold TSM. Bought in from November until just a few days ago. Returned 9.43%. The position was also small, about the size of BABA. Helps ease the BABA pain a bit. An incredible and incredibly important company, with a lot of unknowns in future. Not just the risks of the China invasion, but the costs from opening up their new facilities worldwide, and how profitable they'll be vs. the past.

Cash will be going, at least in part, to slowly averaging in to LLY.
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Time to buy $BABA? Burry doubled down. I'll take a stab if it hits sub 70
 
44nutman said:
Flipped some $BX and $APL calls yesterday. Been a while since I flipped something for 20%+ in a half a day.
$UNG is starting to piss me off. I am up 5% but my goal when I bought was $8. Natty Gas supply is tightening, and futures are up and $UNG can’t hold any fucking gains.
Thought I would have been out already. It needs to hold $7 or I will have to wait until winter to get my $8.
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$UNG is at 7.46 maybe I need to come in here more and talk shit about disappointing stinks.
Forgot to add $tree is up 6% but not getting out under 20%
 
Mother of God, never realized $NVDA is now -4% from all time highs. LMAO. 180 P/E and climbing. Jensen Huang and Bill McDermott looking like he's from the Matrix. This is actually hilarious.

NVDA will break all time highs probably next week.

This reeks of EV mania back in the 2020-2021. Most of them are now essentially worthless stonks with massive losses.
 
Gas121 said:
Mother of God, never realized $NVDA is now -4% from all time highs. LMAO. 180 P/E and climbing. Jensen Huang and Bill McDermott looking like he's from the Matrix. This is actually hilarious.

NVDA will break all time highs probably next week.

This reeks of EV mania back in the 2020-2021. Most of them are now essentially worthless stonks with massive losses.
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i opened a small short position on nvda (and it's already down 5%, lolz), might increase it next week before their earnings. the run is insane/this ai bubble is bonkers. most companies rambling about ai aren't even involved in it. nvidia's supply constrained, amd's mi300 won't even be out for about a year and the first buttload are going to supercomputers for pennies (amd won't be able to ramp these for a long while), amd's xdna laptops (out now) might be a nothingburger (ffs, i don't even know what they're supposed to even do, they just threw xdna on a chip and handed it to msft, hoping they have a use for it). it seems like everyone's gone insane. amzn doesn't have shit. intc doesn't have shit. goog's in-house chips seem meh. meta's been downright retarded.

so i'm guessing this bubbles for a while and bursts when the market/analysts realize that even nvda can't be pulling big profits off this for a good while. i mean, unless they pulled off some massive wafer deal with samsung that went under the radar. and it's dumber since grace (nvda cpu) is pretty much crap and the h100s are shipping with xeon cpus that are hot garbage. the whole thing is a shitshow. the 1337 ml gpus are being gimped with bad cpu pairings. the leading edge semi hardware is in such a wacky state, atm.

the market is such a fickle, hysterical bitch.
 
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been theta ganging enph pretty hard, and it's been doing well. so i noticed solar stocks have been decimated today and started buying spwr and run, and sold puts on some others for next week.

might be a huge mistake, since i actually hate those companies.

maxn just announced a massive offering (17% dilution) at $28 and the stock keeps going above 29. lolz
 
DKNG rising from the grave. Up 120% YTD. Could get mighty interesting if they manage to turn a profit soon, as some expect.
 
rob mafia said:
i opened a small short position on nvda (and it's already down 5%, lolz), might increase it next week before their earnings. the run is insane/this ai bubble is bonkers. most companies rambling about ai aren't even involved in it. nvidia's supply constrained, amd's mi300 won't even be out for about a year and the first buttload are going to supercomputers for pennies (amd won't be able to ramp these for a long while), amd's xdna laptops (out now) might be a nothingburger (ffs, i don't even know what they're supposed to even do, they just threw xdna on a chip and handed it to msft, hoping they have a use for it). it seems like everyone's gone insane. amzn doesn't have shit. intc doesn't have shit. goog's in-house chips seem meh. meta's been downright retarded.

so i'm guessing this bubbles for a while and bursts when the market/analysts realize that even nvda can't be pulling big profits off this for a good while. i mean, unless they pulled off some massive wafer deal with samsung that went under the radar. and it's dumber since grace (nvda cpu) is pretty much crap and the h100s are shipping with xeon cpus that are hot garbage. the whole thing is a shitshow. the 1337 ml gpus are being gimped with bad cpu pairings. the leading edge semi hardware is in such a wacky state, atm.

the market is such a fickle, hysterical bitch.
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Still short nvda?
 
NVDA +25% after hours. Holy heck. I'll never short this stock lol. This is crazy.
 
It was pointed out that in the recent earnings calls of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet, their mentions of AI have increased exponentially in recent quarters. IIRC they mentioned AI a combined 170 times in their last one.

NVIDIA might just have beat all of them, combined. Holy shit! I think AI was mentioned at least once every 30 seconds. It's like it was some contest to get the word in as much as humanly possible.
 
I had 6 shares of NVDA. Bought at $150. Sold 4 at $260. Holding on to 2.

It's so hard to read the market. That's why I mainly just put most of it on VTI. It's boring but eventually it'll win out.

AMD is going up to by $9 after market. I have a shitload of the stock since I bought a lot at $18. Are they going to get some of the AI share or will it be all NVDA?
 
PaleMoonlight said:
AMD is going up to by $9 after market. I have a shitload of the stock since I bought a lot at $18. Are they going to get some of the AI share or will it be all NVDA?
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~0

their "ryzen ai" laptops just had their launch pr yesterday... after being delayed a month. it's a solution without a problem. maybe they'll get lucky and someone can find an ACTUAL use case for it (versus the ai backgrounds for streaming that's seriously the best amd/msft could come up with. for laptops)

their mi300s are locked in to the el capitan supercomputer, where they will make pennies on the dollar/have shit margin. they don't have enough supply and probably can't sell them on the market until mid-2024. and i'm not sure how good they'll be at ai, anyway.

for ai, amd basically has nothing. versal (xilinx) exists, but i'm not sure anyone really cares. while everyone only cares about the ai GPUs, amd has fuckall.

they have an event on 6/13 about ai where they'll probably do the usual "we're so excited to tell you about________" (said with non-excited tone) and probably just yet again talk about how revolutionary the mi300 is and el capitan and... probably still no real relevant benchmarks.


this really should have been amd's time to shine, with intel going tits up, and they've managed to bungle every fucking launch this generation. and lisa's still too conservative and it's going to keep them from the ai pie.
 
NVDA currently sitting with a P/E of 218.13 with a market cap of $952 billion.

 
BIKES! said:
Well…
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i got out on the nvda dip/nvds spike this morning. wasn't nearly as bad i expected. i was buying into the dip in the low 9s which helped a little. got out at $10ish

still a loss (~almost 20%), but when i saw the analyst upgrades, i thought it was going to be closer to -50%

their earnings were killer and their guidance is amazing, but i still think they're overpriced. that run was so huge that i figured a big beat was priced in and the killer guidance surprise would only have warranted ~10%, not 30-60% (analysts calling for $500 sp now)






i generally play heavily in the semis, but right now i don't know what to do. lolz. they all seem overpriced (nvda, smci, amd), too risky with a 30% run and the china nonsense (tsm), practically irrelevant (mu, stx, etc), or rekt (intc).

wondering if i should start nibbling at intc in case the warhawks keep squawking. they're so fucked but it seems like our govt is obsessed with giving them money and fucking taiwan. and they have about as much of an ai stake as amd (pretty much zero), despite amd getting boosted for an ai play they don't even have. the market... shits on amd when they were killing it and now pumps amd when they've botched literally every launch this generation, have no ai play, and have their mi300s locked into dumb supercomputer deals... because their direct competitor guides strong for q2, after amd guided weak for q2. it's gonna feel weird to be shorting this soon.
 
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HOLA said:
It was pointed out that in the recent earnings calls of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet, their mentions of AI have increased exponentially in recent quarters. IIRC they mentioned AI a combined 170 times in their last one.

NVIDIA might just have beat all of them, combined. Holy shit! I think AI was mentioned at least once every 30 seconds. It's like it was some contest to get the word in as much as humanly possible.
Click to expand...

Seems like many CEO's have a caught on about the whole mentioning AI stuff. I assume they are well aware anything 'AI' is going to pump the stock with the algo's running wild on the keyword. MRVL rocketed after hours after mentioning AI as a key driver lulz.

I think this is a good time to get on AI stonk that haven't been pumped yet as a trade, but I'd remain cautious. There will be huge winners in this space, but for most, it'll end badly just like what's happened with EV stocks - absolutely annihilated, most now at all time lows. I have been tracking EV stocks and many are now on the verge of bankruptcy, or worth cents. I remember not long ago legacy companies were heading for bankruptcy, but it was the alternative. I predict the same, with few winners here, it's never any different!
 
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