Economy stonks v26

if you took a drink every time kelly evans said "wow," you'd have a life expectancy of minutes.
 
Gas121 said:
Folks want a bull market it seems even in these conditions. I’d laugh my head off if we entered 2.0 stock mania hype again lmao.
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Honestly no idea if the market is that resilient or is trying to convince us that its resilient before it shits the bed. The volatility is just not there atm.

Imo its just a matter of time before it dumps. Even if we rallied back to 4600 I would think the real crash is coming.
 
kahiljabroni said:
Honestly no idea if the market is that resilient or is trying to convince us that its resilient before it shits the bed. The volatility is just not there atm.

Imo its just a matter of time before it dumps. Even if we rallied back to 4600 I would think the real crash is coming.
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I hedged against my SQQQ position, figured some fuckery maybe on the cards, breaking even here.

Q4 is the strongest quarter typically so if Tesla shits the bed, this market is going to get walloped. That said its Q1, Q2 that will get ugly IMO. Consumer is going to get a good smack this year. Reality hasn't sunk in yet.

I'll be looking at long dated puts here. Starting to feel pretty bearish lulz.
 
Gas121 said:
I hedged against my SQQQ position, figured some fuckery maybe on the cards, breaking even here.

Q4 is the strongest quarter typically so if Tesla shits the bed, this market is going to get walloped. That said its Q1, Q2 that will get ugly IMO. Consumer is going to get a good smack this year. Reality hasn't sunk in yet.

I'll be looking at long dated puts here. Starting to feel pretty bearish lulz.
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Agreed. I just didn't see today's fuckery coming. Like how do you move a company the size of Amazon 4% down then back to green? Who's selling and who's buying
 
kahiljabroni said:
Agreed. I just didn't see today's fuckery coming. Like how do you move a company the size of Amazon 4% down then back to green? Who's selling and who's buying
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Options holders are getting smoked in this market tbh. Seems any dip at the moment is being bought up.

Tesla earnings out. Cyber truck on the cards for this year, you just knew Elon was going to spew this to save the stonk. Investors will be licking their lips at the news. Dummies.
 
Gas121 said:
Options holders are getting smoked in this market tbh. Seems any dip at the moment is being bought up.

Tesla earnings out. Cyber truck on the cards for this year, you just knew Elon was going to spew this to save the stonk. Investors will be licking their lips at the news. Dummies.
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Yeh its flat as a pancake burning puts and calls despite tslas earnings always being juiced
 
kahiljabroni said:
Yeh its flat as a pancake burning puts and calls despite tslas earnings always being juiced
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Was expecting either a moon or tank. Guess earnings call will give direction. Margins shrinking, and growth slowing. This confirms my Q1, Q2 bias that markets will get rocked.
 
Gas121 said:
Was expecting either a moon or tank. Guess earnings call will give direction. Margins shrinking, and growth slowing. This confirms my Q1, Q2 bias that markets will get rocked.
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So who do think is buying the dip enough to explain today's action?

Retail capable? You think its manipulation? Or smart money is bullish?
 
lol Wyc Grousbeck the celts owner on cnbc right now is such a piece of shit.
Divorced his original wife and has a terrible relationship with his kids, now making "high end tequila" with other NBA owners and his new crazy wife. How many fucking celeb tequilas do we need?
 
kahiljabroni said:
So who do think is buying the dip enough to explain today's action?

Retail capable? You think its manipulation? Or smart money is bullish?
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Well I wish I had a crystal ball. Retail seems pretty bullish but most of them are baggies in this market? Maybe big boys getting squeezed out of short positions?

I don't see how 'smart money' would be bullish with these kinda conditions, makes no sense IMO. Lay offs just getting started, inflation still high, credit maxed out, savings said to be depleting. Wages are surely being squeezed, unless I am the only one feeling it and I earn a decent wage (live very minimalistic lifestyle).. In terms of the market, companies still trading at high valuations, with the expectation of explosive growth? I don't see it. Zoom out the charts, we have been mooning since 2009.

My thesis is we are lagging. I mean Tesla cutting prices is surely an indication of what they are thinking going forward no?!

These conditions aren't made for a bull market again. After 2020, I wouldn't be surprised to see stock mania again though. We'll find out mid year me thinks.
 
URI turned out to be one of my better recent picks. Bought from November 21 to October 22, and sitting on a 30% gain now. They also just announced they're starting a dividend. Boring name, boring company, solid returns. Just like Waste Management.

Edit...34% now. Up 8.25% today.

 
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Towel company perhaps giving a taster what will happen to some of these meme stonks lulz. Good lord. The amount of retail baggies is quite something!
 
Dived into Tesla earnings and albeit I am bearish, the numbers don't lie:

YOY revenue growth 33%. The rate of revenue growth is drastically dropping off from the predicted 50%.
Gross margins steadily declining now with 25.9%, Q4 in 2021 was 30.6%.
Operating cash flow down 30% YOY and free cash flow down 49% YOY

Balance sheet is shrinking quite significantly. Are investors even checking this stuff or what? Or are they simply buying based on the words of Musk 'We will be the most valuable company in the world'.

There long term growth rate is supposedly 50% (tesla outlook) but there is a pattern forming that says otherwise. With competition intensifying and slashing prices that hasn't even hit the balance sheet yet, something is not adding up. It's a luxury car maker with a couple of cars and if they leave that, margins will tank even further.

Musk is pulling a blinder here IMO. The stonk pumped AH on earnings calls after Musk said a few words, not the actual numbers. Do people actually believe Tesla is going to be a behemoth like Apple truly, I just don't see it. This is absolute nuts if you ask me.
 
I am unclear on when a bear market is over. I thought the SP500 had to reach a new all time high after dropping 20%. Is that incorrect?
 
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