Economy stonks only go up v6.1

[Parmenides]

i think it's funny that this is like the 6th consecutive stock thread on here.

and suddenly, it's full of doom&gloom economists who swear the world's ending.

and there's almost no talk of trades/stocks - the point of the thread.

The big picture matters now..not individual stocks

Its not doom and gloom..the reality is that the global economy has been disrupted and liquidity is drying up which will trigger a chain reaction like the global financial crisis

 

[Parmenides]

If people are not sent back to work by Easter there will be layoffs of epic proportions when refineries start shutting in units....because they have no storage capacity left available.

And its going to reverberate throughout the entire economy as everything is interlinked

 

[kahiljabroni]

Its gonna be spent quickly a 1000 check wont last long..people will just buy food to survive and stop paying their debt obligations which will fuck the real asset owners and banks

And it doesnt work like that..when unemployment rises no gvmt can save the market

We had the initial waves of layoffs and now companies are planning for more..it takes some time to finalize and execute at larger co's

I keep repeating to you that those who are laid off are going to be making 150% more than people normally do on unemployment. And 1200-4k funny money. And the government will obviously extend that unemployment if needed.

More importantly 90% will still be working, earning their same money as before and they'll get a fat check. Tens of millions of middle class families will get 4k for no reason.

Who exactly is broke in this situation?

 

[rob mafia]

The big picture matters now..not individual stocks

Its not doom and gloom..the reality is that the global economy has been disrupted and liquidity is drying up which will trigger a chain reaction like the global financial crisis

blah, blah blahblahblah

cv is the most fearmongered, over-reacted (barely even an) event in modern history. hopefully, sanity will be restored once people wake up and realize that half/most of us already have antibodies for this stupid flu.

you've been fearmongering a depression from your first post here, basing it on... a long bull market.

you act as if the market's been bullish, then it needs to lose all of its gains. you also act as if everyone's broke and can't pay their bills and desperately need their trumpbucks to buy food. this doesn't seem to be the case for... well, nearly everyone.

 

[Parmenides]

I keep repeating to you that those who are laid off are going to be making 150% more than people normally do on unemployment. And 1200-4k funny money. And the government will obviously extend that unemployment if needed.

More importantly 90% will still be working, earning their same money as before and they'll get a fat check. Tens of millions of middle class families will get 4k for no reason.

Who exactly is broke in this situation?

You seem to basing your assumptions on hope, for unsustainable actions at that, which is a sure way to lose money..the reality is the world economy is shitting down and more people will be laid off which is a recipe for disaster

Besides the gvmt did all it could during GFC and the market still got crushed 70% from the peak

 

[Parmenides]

blah, blah blahblahblah

cv is the most fearmongered, over-reacted (barely even an) event in modern history. hopefully, sanity will be restored once people wake up and realize that half/most of us already have antibodies for this stupid flu.

you've been fearmongering a depression from your first post here, basing it on... a long bull market.

you act as if the market's been bullish, then it needs to lose all of its gains. you also act as if everyone's broke and can't pay their bills and desperately need their trumpbucks to buy food. this doesn't seem to be the case for... well, nearly everyone.

I dont need to act..look up the consumer debt vs savings graphs in the links i posted..80% of americans only have enough savings to last them 1-2 months

As american economy is built on the consumer..this shutdown is disastrous..most people live on credit anyway and no bank will give out credit in a shutdown

And you also bet on hope..which is the mother of all losses

 

[Rob Battisti]

blah, blah blahblahblah

cv is the most fearmongered, over-reacted (barely even an) event in modern history. hopefully, sanity will be restored once people wake up and realize that half/most of us already have antibodies for this stupid flu.

you've been fearmongering a depression from your first post here, basing it on... a long bull market.

you act as if the market's been bullish, then it needs to lose all of its gains. you also act as if everyone's broke and can't pay their bills and desperately need their trumpbucks to buy food. this doesn't seem to be the case for... well, nearly everyone.

a month and a half ago you argued with me saying this wouldn’t even be a blip of an economic impact.

 

[kahiljabroni]

You seem to basing your assumptions on hope, for unsustainable actions at that, which is a sure way to lose money..the reality is the world economy is shitting down and more people will be laid off which is a recipe for disaster

Besides the gvmt did all it could during GFC and the market still got crushed 70% from the peak

I'm not basing on hope, I'm talking about the actual numbers laid out in the stimulus which has passed already...and theyve already hinted at another round.

I'm not even arguing that weve hit bottom im arguing that the American people will be more flush with cash than ever for at least the next 4 months.

You have yet to refute that...you keep bringing up that people live on debt and have no savings and you're actually making my point. All those individuals and families who didn't have a 500 emergency fund will now have 1200-4k and they will spend it. They can't travel so they will buy consumer goods...furniture, phones, cars, electronics, etc.

 

[brackis1]

The nasdaq was up 7fold since 2009 bottom and s&p 5fold..the bubbles are as great as before thanks to loose gvmt policies and bailouts

The 2000 bubble took 3yrs to unwind and bottom out..2007 1.5yrs..and we are just getting started with this one

The trading mechanics of 2000 and 2007 are so different than today.
Nobody even had cellphones. I can now make a $250,000 trade while shitting in a hole in the desert.
I'm not saying it won''t go down, but analyzing depth and recovery is again, not all just following some chart from a different period of time.

 

[Letssnuggle]

Exxonmobil announced they will be shutting-in their gasoline unit at the Baytown refinery. This is just the beginning if people are not sent back to work soon.

Small refiners will go out of business if this continues for much longer. And when demand eventually does return prices will increase, compared to pre corona virus, as mostly large cap companies are still around.

Right now recovery is manageable because oil products are cheap. If prices increase the situation is much worse.

If what I just heard on the news is correct: the average age in Italy for corona death is 85 - this is completely ridiculous to shut the entire economy down over this shit.

 

[D3thr0n3d K1ng]

blah, blah blahblahblah

cv is the most fearmongered, over-reacted (barely even an) event in modern history. hopefully, sanity will be restored once people wake up and realize that half/most of us already have antibodies for this stupid flu.

you've been fearmongering a depression from your first post here, basing it on... a long bull market.

you act as if the market's been bullish, then it needs to lose all of its gains. you also act as if everyone's broke and can't pay their bills and desperately need their trumpbucks to buy food. this doesn't seem to be the case for... well, nearly everyone.

It's just a flu bro!!

 

[Parmenides]

I'm not basing on hope, I'm talking about the actual numbers laid out in the stimulus which has passed already...and theyve already hinted at another round.

I'm not even arguing that weve hit bottom im arguing that the American people will be more flush with cash than ever for at least the next 4 months.

You have yet to refute that...you keep bringing up that people live on debt and have no savings and you're actually making my point. All those individuals and families who didn't have a 500 emergency fund will now have 1200-4k and they will spend it. They can't travel so they will buy consumer goods...furniture, phones, cars, electronics, etc.

If they buy now it wont be sustainable..however in a state of extreme future uncertainty people tend to delay their discretionary purchases to buy and save for necessities

 

[Parmenides]

The trading mechanics of 2000 and 2007 are so different than today.
Nobody even had cellphones. I can now make a $250,000 trade while shitting in a hole in the desert.
I'm not saying it won''t go down, but analyzing depth and recovery is again, not all just following some chart from a different period of time.

I have been trading online since late 90s..not much has changed in terms of ease of trade execution..which has no impact on market direction anyway

 

[shockaholic12]

Exxonmobil announced they will be shutting-in their gasoline unit at the Baytown refinery. This is just the beginning if people are not sent back to work soon.

Small refiners will go out of business if this continues for much longer. And when demand eventually does return prices will increase, compared to pre corona virus, as mostly large cap companies are still around.

Right now recovery is manageable because oil products are cheap. If prices increase the situation is much worse.

If what I just heard on the news is correct: the average age in Italy for corona death is 85 - this is completely ridiculous to shut the entire economy down over this shit.

20% of deaths in South Korea were under 60. 1 in 5.

If the American citizens were confident we had the medical supplies, system, and staff to handle putting people middle aged and even some younger folks in hospital beds and on ventilators if they become very ill then a majority of the population would go back to work because they would be confident that could get care.

But that couldn't be further from reality. The demographic that would need to go back out there to earn is the same demographic that's getting turned away when they try to see a doctor right now. No one is worrying about oil

 

[brackis1]

I have been trading online since late 90s..not much has changed in terms of ease of trade execution..which has no impact on market direction anyway

That's not entirely true.
Sending an email was just as easy in 2005 as it is today, but way more people do it now. My pointing being chart analysis along the Y axis might be valid, but the X axis of time is warped by modern day boom-bust behaviors. (as we saw in late 2018)

 

[Letssnuggle]

20% of deaths in South Korea were under 60. 1 in 5.

If the American citizens were confident we had the medical supplies, system, and staff to handle putting people middle aged and even some younger folks in hospital beds and on ventilators if they become very ill then a majority of the population would go back to work because they would be confident that could get care.

But that couldn't be further from reality. The demographic that would need to go back out there to earn is the same demographic that's getting turned away when they try to see a doctor right now. No one is worrying about oil

S Korea is reporting 152 deaths. Is this the same number you’re using?

Bankrupt millions of people over 30 deaths?!?!?

 

[rob mafia]

I dont need to act..look up the consumer debt vs savings graphs in the links i posted..80% of americans only have enough savings to last them 1-2 months

As american economy is built on the consumer..this shutdown is disastrous..most people live on credit anyway and no bank will give out credit in a shutdown

And you also bet on hope..which is the mother of all losses

lolz @ calling not devaluing companies by ~50% based on a potential drop (and some with gains) for a month or two.... merely "hope."

yeah, fearmongering insanity.

It's just a flu bro!!

...it really is.

 

[rob mafia]

a month and a half ago you argued with me saying this wouldn’t even be a blip of an economic impact.

...exactly?

i don't think the virus, itself, warrants any impact. what's causing the impact is over-reactions and fearmongering. the shutdowns are worse than the virus. and given that the shutdowns aren't due to economic/bad business, but a new flu...

 

[Stoic1]

I think you will all be surprised when you see the numbers for the US on Friday. This is not going away. This is just starting to ramp up. This is going to explode.

Way way way back in these threads I predicted a sub 20k with my buy in around 17k. I am trying to look at the long term impacts but the problem set is just way too complex and intertwined. The "market" is fickle and prone to news cycle hysteria. We aren't even close to the apex of that yet. And that is why I am re-adjusting my picks (that I have posted earlier) to a buy in around 15k. I could EASILY be wrong here - and if the market recovers quickly I still make a lot of money. I am just unwilling to drop another 100k unless I see a 2008 type opportunity.

Bottom line - shit is going to get a lot worse real soon. Regardless of what you think about "the flu".

 

[Parmenides]

I think you will all be surprised when you see the numbers for the US on Friday. This is not going away. This is just starting to ramp up. This is going to explode.

Way way way back in these threads I predicted a sub 20k with my buy in around 17k. I am trying to look at the long term impacts but the problem set is just way too complex and intertwined. The "market" is fickle and prone to news cycle hysteria. We aren't even close to the apex of that yet. And that is why I am re-adjusting my picks (that I have posted earlier) to a buy in around 15k. I could EASILY be wrong here - and if the market recovers quickly I still make a lot of money. I am just unwilling to drop another 100k unless I see a 2008 type opportunity.

Bottom line - shit is going to get a lot worse real soon. Regardless of what you think about "the flu".

Thats exactly right..valuations are still high as we were in a bubble and fundamental conditions bad and getting worse