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Economy Stocks thread v28: in loving memory of Rob Mafia and Brackis1

My portfolio is up ~4% today. URI the highest: 10.3%.

Wonder if Buffett is second guessing his decision to hold so much cash now.
aerius said:
Buffett understands the long term implications of this. It's not a coincidence that he started building cash when he did.

QI42tS1.jpg
Click to expand...
He was pretty clear that the main reason he started building so much cash was because he expected the tax rate on corporate profits to go up, and wanted to lock in gains at the lower right rate now. Also heavily implied (stopped buybacks) that he viewed the market as too juicy at current levels.
 
Well sold out before the election with no position. Missed about 8k worth of gains. Hammered on a small CELH position I had for earnings.

That's life.

I would not be surprised to see a sell the news event as Donald takes the pole position in Jan though. This market is beyond frothy lol.

Maybe JPOW lays the hammer 2moro, it could get interesting.
 
HOLA said:
My IESC crossed $200 last week. It's now up 151% for the year and 202% for the last 12 months.

Click to expand...

$263! Officially a 5x bagger for me now. Don't say I didn't warn you! Mentioned this one a lot.
 
Fed just cut rates again.

  • As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% on Thursday, its second rate cut in a row.
 
My scuttlebutt purchase of TTWO is working out very nice. Not a decision I really made pouring through the annual reports with a fine-toothed comb, but because I know how beloved GTA is, with almost a cultish following - not something that necessarily shows up on financial statements, especially since the last game was released in 2013.

I dollar-cost averaged in for a few months, finishing around Jan 2023 iirc. Average cost per-share is $111.24. It's at $179.47 right now. +61.2%. All-time high of the stock is about $215, from 2021.

TTWO generates a lot of online discussion. Some people insisted GTA 6 was already baked into the share price because everyone knows it's coming. No! The average holding period of stocks in 2024 is less than half a year, and trending down. GTA 6 was still more than a year away. The efficient market hypothesis is a fairy tale; Mr. Market is bipolar.
 
Hey fellas, I recently moved companies so I had to move money that was in the pension account that was a group administered account (RRSP/LIRA) over to Questrade self directed.

I was pretty much all Equity Index and Target Retirement funds. It was transferred all as cash, so now i have to put it into the market myself.

Now that the election is over and there was a spike in the market, I'm reluctant to put it all in right now (but i guess we can never really time the market). Any suggestions on how to invest/roll out this @Revolver @HOLA @Rob Battisti

I'm looking to go mid/long

Should i put it all in VTI (VUN Canadian equivalent) all at once?

Should I roll out 1/3 every couple of months? Diversify?


***Also my wife's grandmother passed away, she got a small inheritance, best suggestion to invest this?


My typical default is a total market index etf, but like to hear all you analysts share some thoughts.
 
wlu.29 said:
Hey fellas, I recently moved companies so I had to move money that was in the pension account that was a group administered account (RRSP/LIRA) over to Questrade self directed.

I was pretty much all Equity Index and Target Retirement funds. It was transferred all as cash, so now i have to put it into the market myself.

Now that the election is over and there was a spike in the market, I'm reluctant to put it all in right now (but i guess we can never really time the market). Any suggestions on how to invest/roll out this @Revolver @HOLA @Rob Battisti

I'm looking to go mid/long

Should i put it all in VTI (VUN Canadian equivalent) all at once?

Should I roll out 1/3 every couple of months? Diversify?


***Also my wife's grandmother passed away, she got a small inheritance, best suggestion to invest this?


My typical default is a total market index etf, but like to hear all you analysts share some thoughts.
Click to expand...
What is your risk tolerance?
 
wlu.29 said:
Hey fellas, I recently moved companies so I had to move money that was in the pension account that was a group administered account (RRSP/LIRA) over to Questrade self directed.

I was pretty much all Equity Index and Target Retirement funds. It was transferred all as cash, so now i have to put it into the market myself.

Now that the election is over and there was a spike in the market, I'm reluctant to put it all in right now (but i guess we can never really time the market). Any suggestions on how to invest/roll out this @Revolver @HOLA @Rob Battisti

I'm looking to go mid/long

Should i put it all in VTI (VUN Canadian equivalent) all at once?

Should I roll out 1/3 every couple of months? Diversify?


***Also my wife's grandmother passed away, she got a small inheritance, best suggestion to invest this?


My typical default is a total market index etf, but like to hear all you analysts share some thoughts.
Click to expand...
Sticking with a low-cost index fund is a great idea for most people. The best is probably VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

However, I'm American, so I'm not sure about the tax implications for Canadians. There might be an extra foreign withholding tax on the dividends for you guys. Vanguard is huge though, and has many different funds for investors in foreign countries. There likely is a Canadian equivalent of the VOO that perhaps is more tax advantageous; you'd have to look into that.

Everywhere is pretty much commission free now, which is one more reason why you should dollar-cost average in. Maybe put $ in weekly, stretching out over a year. Then moving forward, set up a plan where you make additional purchases on a consistent basis. Buy every week, no matter what.

Don't leave the extra cash sitting around collecting dust in your account, either. Put it in a money market fund or short-term government bonds fund.

The 90/10 rule is pretty wise to follow for most too. After you're done dollar-cost averaging, try to keep 90% of your portfolio in the S&P 500 index fund and 10% in the short-term bond fund. You never know when something like the great recession will happen again, or even more recently with Covid-19, there were some good buying opportunities. This way you'll have some dry powder on hand to back up the truck when the real good deals are out there with stocks.
 
HOLA said:
Sticking with a low-cost index fund is a great idea for most people. The best is probably VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

However, I'm American, so I'm not sure about the tax implications for Canadians. There might be an extra foreign withholding tax on the dividends for you guys. Vanguard is huge though, and has many different funds for investors in foreign countries. There likely is a Canadian equivalent of the VOO that perhaps is more tax advantageous; you'd have to look into that.

Everywhere is pretty much commission free now, which is one more reason why you should dollar-cost average in. Maybe put $ in weekly, stretching out over a year. Then moving forward, set up a plan where you make additional purchases on a consistent basis. Buy every week, no matter what.

Don't leave the extra cash sitting around collecting dust in your account, either. Put it in a money market fund or short-term government bonds fund.

The 90/10 rule is pretty wise to follow for most too. After you're done dollar-cost averaging, try to keep 90% of your portfolio in the S&P 500 index fund and 10% in the short-term bond fund. You never know when something like the great recession will happen again, or even more recently with Covid-19, there were some good buying opportunities. This way you'll have some dry powder on hand to back up the truck when the real good deals are out there with stocks.
Click to expand...
You guys like VOO more than VTI? I have vun which is canadian equivalent of vti
 
wlu.29 said:
You guys like VOO more than VTI? I have vun which is canadian equivalent of vti
Click to expand...
VTI is OK, but look at the performance stats over the last 10 years:

S&P 500 total return: 252.75%
VOO total return: 251.71%
VTI total return: 235.49%

Not a huge difference, but it's a difference.

The "Magnificent 7" stocks - Apple, Tesla, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta - are responsible for most of the market's gains in recent years. You can read lots of stats like this:

"The Magnificent Seven stocks have been largely responsible for the outsized rally in US equities. The S&P 500, for example, was up 18.1% as of July 10 compared with the end of 2023. The index was up only 9% if you removed the seven mega-cap stocks, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data."

Diversification is really good for the average investor, but VOO already holds ~500. VTI has like 3,500 or something. So yeah, you get access to small and obscure companies with VTI, that might produce some big winners (most won't), but it also waters down what have really been the big winners recently - the MAG 7. Of course, past results don't guarantee future ones, but all signs point to this continuing. They are money making behemoths.

Compare their top 10 holdings:

VOO:

Apple Inc
7.25%
Microsoft Corp
6.55%
NVIDIA Corp
6.12%
Amazon.com Inc
3.56%
Meta Platforms Inc Class A
2.56%
Alphabet Inc Class A
1.99%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B
1.73%
Alphabet Inc Class C
1.64%
Broadcom Inc
1.64%
Tesla Inc
1.49%
Total
34.52%

VTI:

Apple Inc
6.08%
Microsoft Corp
5.77%
NVIDIA Corp
5.12%
Amazon.com Inc
3.18%
Meta Platforms Inc Class A
2.26%
Alphabet Inc Class A
1.75%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B
1.47%
Broadcom Inc
1.45%
Alphabet Inc Class C
1.43%
Eli Lilly and Co
1.37%
Total
29.88%
 
wlu.29 said:
All at once right away, or space it out over several months/quarters?
Click to expand...


I don't think it matters when you have a 10+yr horizon.

A friend inherited a house 20months ago and I advised him to sell it, and put it in VOO (or in his case VFV.TO). He tried renting and then waited to get a better price. In the end he has spent more money on the house than he earned as opposed to ...


This may be an usually good time period but time in the market, invested in the 500 best US companies, is a strategy most people should use.
 
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wlu.29 said:
Hey fellas, I recently moved companies so I had to move money that was in the pension account that was a group administered account (RRSP/LIRA) over to Questrade self directed.

I was pretty much all Equity Index and Target Retirement funds. It was transferred all as cash, so now i have to put it into the market myself.

Now that the election is over and there was a spike in the market, I'm reluctant to put it all in right now (but i guess we can never really time the market). Any suggestions on how to invest/roll out this @Revolver @HOLA @Rob Battisti

I'm looking to go mid/long

Should i put it all in VTI (VUN Canadian equivalent) all at once?

Should I roll out 1/3 every couple of months? Diversify?


***Also my wife's grandmother passed away, she got a small inheritance, best suggestion to invest this?


My typical default is a total market index etf, but like to hear all you analysts share some thoughts.
Click to expand...

Why don't you split it 60/40 in VFV.TO and XWD.TO (as a global hedge).

You can do it in 3month tranches but if you aren't going to need it fro 10+ yrs, don't worry about timing the market -- especially since it's probably going to go on a 12month tear.
 
Last edited:
Word of warning: I would not advise investing in individual stocks unless you have some specific knowledge of an industry, or specific company.

I work in the metabolic disease space and have two investments in GLP-1 drug companies NVO and LLY. If you invest now, you've missed the massive impact of GLP-1s, but there will be a second rise in both because of orals, new formulations, and derivative disease impact studies (such as type 3 diabetes and other neuro-degenerative diseases). In my view, both companies will be trillion dollar mkt cap pharmas. Don't expect 2-3x gains in 3 years but 30-40% over 3 yrs is quite possible.

For disclosure I've been in NVO since 2019 and LLY for more than 20+yrs, over which there was a lot of zero growth, so Caveat Emptor.
 
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