Stock Portfolios V2

[MASShole]

What would you recommend for somebody just starting out in the field?

I need probably 2 really great books to lay the foundation, would love to hear some opinions on that.

Would love to hear some general tips, and what to look out for, I suppose I should be constantly checking the stock movements as well.

As you can tell, I have no clue at all, so I would be very grateful for some advice. How did you get started ?

I have already recommended a few books in this thread or the first one. Read through.

 

[ElKarlo]

Mass, I know you good picks, and I have said it before, but man MCD is going nowhere good. They are spending too much on dividends and buybacks and really aren't doing anything meaningful in turning the company around. That or some M&A. I don't see MCD doing well, as they are losing to the Chipotles and Paneras of the world. Young people too.
I'd pick a different stock to park in. As retail is just too rough to really be in. Starbucks is all I have retail wise, and i'll jump the second they start looking bad. As one misstep, and you're the next Red Lobster

 

[ElKarlo]

Boeing and Texas instruments are doing great. TXN is a secret div king. Love holding it

 

[Phelly2]

Nice. Textbook breakout on ILMN at 182~ put me ahead about 3% within 5 minutes of buying. Now in all-time highs with no overhead resistance on a big earnings winner of an industry leader. Going to hold this one for a while. Minimum 20%.

I see ILMN going to at least $210 before we see any meaningful pullback, since stocks that bust out of bases generally make 20% moves.

 

[JuliaB4GSP]

Nothing is making sense. Pre market was trending negative and now we have a 200+ day.

High volatility, choppy market for weeks always precedes market corrections, bear markets, recessions.

 

[Phelly2]

What would you recommend for somebody just starting out in the field?

I need probably 2 really great books to lay the foundation, would love to hear some opinions on that.

Would love to hear some general tips, and what to look out for, I suppose I should be constantly checking the stock movements as well.

As you can tell, I have no clue at all, so I would be very grateful for some advice. How did you get started ?

It's hard to recommend "where to start" because there's a million different books, and each one is going to promote a method or system that contradicts the next one. The stock market is rather easy to learn (if you are really, really serious and passionate about learning) but the hardest part about investing is psychological, not mechanical.

The key is to find a system that is historically backtested to ensure that it is profitable in the long run, and then trade it to the best of your abilities. You really need a system to be profitable, in my opinion, because the market is literally designed to trick you into making bad trades, and to shake you out of good trades (usually at a loss). A system that takes emotions out of your decision making is the only way to stay in a good trade.

I've tried many, but the best that worked for me so far was the CANSLIM method, which you can read about in the book, "How to make money in stocks" by William O'neil. The downside to this system is that in order to really make the most use out of it, you sort of need to subscribe to their website(www.investors.com) because they have all the proprietary ratings and indicators. But the plus side is, it's a popular system because it just plain works.

With all of that stuff said, for the vast majority of people (like 90% of people) I would recommend mutual funds over do-it-yourself investing. I would only recommend investing yourself if it's fun. I don't do it to make money, I do it because I'm addicted to the treasure hunt. I do it just to see if I can.

 

[MASShole]

Mass, I know you good picks, and I have said it before, but man MCD is going nowhere good. They are spending too much on dividends and buybacks and really aren't doing anything meaningful in turning the company around. That or some M&A. I don't see MCD doing well, as they are losing to the Chipotles and Paneras of the world. Young people too.
I'd pick a different stock to park in. As retail is just too rough to really be in. Starbucks is all I have retail wise, and i'll jump the second they start looking bad. As one misstep, and you're the next Red Lobster

I'm thinking about it. I'm only down about $60 in a $2500 purchase, so I might just swap out and buy something else, or leave it in cash to see what I can get on the cheap.

 

[uncommon]

What would you recommend for somebody just starting out in the field?
Don't believe anyone on the internet unless they provide multiple years of broker statements (aka don't believe anyone)
I need probably 2 really great books to lay the foundation, would love to hear some opinions on that.
Don't believe anyone who writes a book unless they provide multiple years of broker statements (aka don't believe anyone who writes a book)
Would love to hear some general tips, and what to look out for,
Don't believe you actually are doing something right when something goes your way. Start with ridiculously small amounts of money, don't hold on to losing positions.

I suppose I should be constantly checking the stock movements as well.
You should avoid making decisions as much as possible, the more you look at charts the more you are probably going to relate to a monkey pressing a button.
As you can tell, I have no clue at all, so I would be very grateful for some advice. How did you get started ?
Advice, don't lose money, realize the amounts of money you could potentially gain are likely to be piss poor. I started as a hobby at a young age because investing has been apart of family tradition. I treat my account as a savings account, not a retirement account. And the amount of money in it is a joke in the grand scheme of things. In no way shape or form could i trade for income as a living, anyone says they can be highly skeptical

red

 

[SammyPops]

Boeing and Texas instruments are doing great. TXN is a secret div king. Love holding it

I looked at this a few months ago, but bought Deere & Co instead, probably no t a good move. time will tell though

 

[Phelly2]

red

That was a pretty cynical post, but mostly true. The odds against you actually making money are overwhelming, and even if you do make money, it's an extremely rare person who can carve an actual living out of it.

Most people who make a "living" trading actually make most of their money teaching trading, not actually trading. Which speaks to uncommon's warning that you should basically believe nobody.

Which is why I recommend mutual funds over actually doing it yourself. I certainly wish I had started contributing to a mutual fund many years before I actually did.

 

[ElKarlo]

I'm thinking about it. I'm only down about $60 in a $2500 purchase, so I might just swap out and buy something else, or leave it in cash to see what I can get on the cheap.

SA had this article http://seekingalpha.com/article/258...ocus-on-the-business-and-curtail-cash-returns I agree with it. Yes cash returns and buybacks are nice, but not at the expense of fixing the business. MCD is going to use all it's cash for divs/BBS, and will have to become leveraged in order to make structural changes. Just doesn't look good, as they aren't doing anything meaningful while the ship sinks. It is like looking at Sears 10 years ago. Still big but slowly sinking into oblivion

 

[ElKarlo]

I looked at this a few months ago, but bought Deere & Co instead, probably no t a good move. time will tell though

Yeah, Deere is good, though the agri market is weird, and I don't get it tbh.

For Boeing, air traffic is going to keep climbing for several more years, if no a solid two decades. Boeing and even Airbus will benefit from this, until the trend ends. Since the 787's problems are mostly over with, I think Boeing will have smooth sailing until the 737Max and 777X are released in 2017 or so

 

[ElKarlo]

Zack's was saying that POST of all companies was a strong buy. I don't see how, the company, though it makes Fruity Pebbles, has been struggling for a long time. I don't see what they have done to change that.

 

[Phelly2]

I bought GILD as it broke out to new highs today. It was already up pretty big when it happened, so it's moving slowly, but it will be an interesting one to watch when they report earnings on Tuesday. I'm hoping to establish a profit cushion before that time so I can relatively safely sit through earnings.

Their earnings per share the last few quarters have been on the order of 300+ percent from the same quarter in the previous year. Their sales have been through the roof because of their new drug, Sovaldi, which has had "far and away the biggest first year of any drug in history" according to the article I read. Also, this month, the FDA approved their new drug, which is essentially(as I understand it with my layman's knowledge) a new and improved(and more expensive) version.

 

[ElKarlo]

Phelly I'll respond when I get a chance to look into GILD. But good on you.

PG is going to spin off Duracell. Kinda weird. It is declining but high margin category. Also the spinoff is a stock swap. So I am not going to trade PG shares for Duracell. No way

 

[Mr Mojo Lane]

Or you could just say it has been a bull in USD the past month.

I think that is more of an "and" than an "or". Numerous articles have talked about a large supply of oil.

 

[ElKarlo]

Yeah GILD looks like you got in at the right time. Way too high for me now.

As for trying to play the market, two big surprises for me. CAT, was looking to have a poor quarter, yet profit is up. The shorts got killed here.

Boeing, had a great quarter, yet shares are down. Bulls got killed here.

I really did not see this at all, so i would have lost big here. So, I stay away from day trading. Just too many unknown factors at play. Besides many experts clearly state theat they have no idea what is driving the market at this point.

It is interesting where we are though market wise. The P/E's are all pretty high, so any news, good or bad sends the market into a tizzy. Going to be a crazy time for a while, it seems.

 

[Mr Mojo Lane]

Zack's was saying that POST of all companies was a strong buy. I don't see how, the company, though it makes Fruity Pebbles, has been struggling for a long time. I don't see what they have done to change that.

I dunno. I haven't looked at their fundamentals or anything, but I do not think cereal has a great future. Most health conscience people will not eat dairy and carbs for breakfast. Most busy people eat breakfast in their cars. I guess the fatties are having an extra bowl or two of fruity pebbles in the morning.

 

[Mr Mojo Lane]

Yeah, Deere is good, though the agri market is weird, and I don't get it tbh.

For Boeing, air traffic is going to keep climbing for several more years, if no a solid two decades. Boeing and even Airbus will benefit from this, until the trend ends. Since the 787's problems are mostly over with, I think Boeing will have smooth sailing until the 737Max and 777X are released in 2017 or so

Air traffic could benefit from the cheap oil

 

[ElKarlo]

I dunno. I haven't looked at their fundamentals or anything, but I do not think cereal has a great future. Most health conscience people will not eat dairy and carbs for breakfast. Most busy people eat breakfast in their cars. I guess the fatties are having an extra bowl or two of fruity pebbles in the morning.

Oh yeah, cereal is like Soda, declining, or with no growth. Thing is GIS and Kellogg's do have tons of cereal exposure, but they also have a lot more foreign exposure, and more diverse brands. For example Kellogg's bought Pringles.
Post is just now becoming profitable again, and has very little non-ceeral products.
I can't see recommending Post over something like Unilever. Even if UL is having some trouble now, it is still much more fundamentally better off than POST.

I do like my Fruity Pebbles though.