Stock Portfolios V2

[ElKarlo]

Air traffic could benefit from the cheap oil

Oh yeah, for sure. I am sure the airlines LOVE this. As they built in high oil costs into their current pricing. So their margins must be great.

Still won't touch passenger airlines. But UPS/FedEx prolly are seriously benefiting from this

 

[AggieBoy]

Air traffic could benefit from the cheap oil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
"The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important.Subsequently, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news "

The fact you noticed oil going down does not mean you should buy airlines, that is a perfect example of the availability heuristic. Overweight the importance of the move in oil because you happened to notice the move.

You guys talking all this nonsense on individual stocks should really learn the 101 basics of behavioral finance. It doesn't sound like you have any strategy, just random data points and then falling prey to the availability heuristic on what you happened to have ran into data wise. Although, that does sum up retail trading in general.


http://www.amazon.com/Judgment-unde...414248472&sr=8-2&keywords=bias+and+heuristics

 

[Mr Mojo Lane]

Oh yeah, cereal is like Soda, declining, or with no growth. Thing is GIS and Kellogg's do have tons of cereal exposure, but they also have a lot more foreign exposure, and more diverse brands. For example Kellogg's bought Pringles.
Post is just now becoming profitable again, and has very little non-ceeral products.
I can't see recommending Post over something like Unilever. Even if UL is having some trouble now, it is still much more fundamentally better off than POST.

I do like my Fruity Pebbles though.

Yeah, Unilever and Nestle are cheap right now. One factor is that Europe's economy is down.

 

[ElKarlo]

Yeah, Unilever and Nestle are cheap right now. One factor is that Europe's economy is down.

It is hard to coherently discuss large trends and then use those trends to talk about stocks. I find it is easier to use individual stocks as an example, and let people take what they want from the example.

As for Nestle and even UL, yes they are great stocks, and Europe and the BRICS are down now. Which is why I bought UL recently. I have a decent exposure to Nestle through USAWX fund. I don't have a Euro account, so I can't buy non OTCs of it.

I am opening up a brokerage account in Japan. So I will prolly buy Fuji Heavy industries as my first pick. A lot of good exposure to Aerospace, and it is a well run company. Japanese companies are growth starved, and generally cash rich, so M&A is going to keep happening from this side. Just interesting to see. Heck Mizkan, which is basically Heinz of Japan, bought Ragu from UL for $2.14.

 

[Mr Mojo Lane]

Originally Posted by Mr Mojo Lane View Post
Air traffic could benefit from the cheap oil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
"The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important.Subsequently, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news "

The fact you noticed oil going down does not mean you should buy airlines, that is a perfect example of the availability heuristic. Overweight the importance of the move in oil because you happened to notice the move.

You guys talking all this nonsense on individual stocks should really learn the 101 basics of behavioral finance. It doesn't sound like you have any strategy, just random data points and then falling prey to the availability heuristic on what you happened to have ran into data wise. Although, that does sum up retail trading in general.


http://www.amazon.com/Judgment-unde...414248472&sr=8-2&keywords=bias+and+heuristics

Notice that I said "could benefit". I did not say put all of you money on this. I am sure that the airlines could quickly become overvalued quickly if enough people "fall prey to the availability heuristic".

Strategy? If someone was thinking about buying airline stock, low oil prices could help that company. I am not saying that the company is impervious to becoming overvalued. Buy now then, if it becomes overvalued, sell

 

[uncommon]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
"The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important.Subsequently, people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news "

The fact you noticed oil going down does not mean you should buy airlines, that is a perfect example of the availability heuristic. Overweight the importance of the move in oil because you happened to notice the move.

You guys talking all this nonsense on individual stocks should really learn the 101 basics of behavioral finance. It doesn't sound like you have any strategy, just random data points and then falling prey to the availability heuristic on what you happened to have ran into data wise. Although, that does sum up retail trading in general.


http://www.amazon.com/Judgment-unde...414248472&sr=8-2&keywords=bias+and+heuristics

What if you are short airlines and you are using the availability heuristic as an availability heuristic? Heuristicception?

 

[MASShole]

It is hard to coherently discuss large trends and then use those trends to talk about stocks. I find it is easier to use individual stocks as an example, and let people take what they want from the example.

As for Nestle and even UL, yes they are great stocks, and Europe and the BRICS are down now. Which is why I bought UL recently. I have a decent exposure to Nestle through USAWX fund. I don't have a Euro account, so I can't buy non OTCs of it.

I am opening up a brokerage account in Japan. So I will prolly buy Fuji Heavy industries as my first pick. A lot of good exposure to Aerospace, and it is a well run company. Japanese companies are growth starved, and generally cash rich, so M&A is going to keep happening from this side. Just interesting to see. Heck Mizkan, which is basically Heinz of Japan, bought Ragu from UL for $2.14.

I own UL and GIS. GIS will figure things out.

 

[ElKarlo]

I own UL and GIS. GIS will figure things out.

UL will be fine. GIS has the breadth and the money to adapt. Post is just off life support and is almost all cereal. GIS and Kelloggs have been diversifying for a good while now

 

[MASShole]

GIS just bought Annie's, which is good, but pricey. Hopefully it all works out.

 

[ElKarlo]

GIS just bought Annie's, which is good, but pricey. Hopefully it all works out.

Depends. Can GIS use it's dist network to get Annie's into more stores, and create more sales? Guess we will see.

 

[Phelly2]

This market recovery has been very kind to my account. Up 5% on my personal account since getting back into the market just last Wednesday.

Go Pro looks poised for a pre-earnings run-up following a positive analyst recommendation. I figured yesterday would be the bottom due to the gap down on old news and the fact that it was testing its 50-day (and 10-week) average for the first time since the breakout, but bottoms are treacherous and I got stopped out by that massive sell off at the end of the day only to have it gap up to my original buy price.

Anyway, it looks strong at the moment. I don't currently have any GPRO, but it's worth watching as it has earnings in 2 days.

 

[MASShole]

MCD hit my trigger point for a sale order, so now I have $2350 to invest elsewhere.

 

[ElKarlo]

Good for you
MCD is a sick man.

KO might vet bought out by Buffet and 3G ala LBO. Or so the rumor says. Interesting

 

[MASShole]

Good for you
MCD is a sick man.

KO might vet bought out by Buffet and 3G ala LBO. Or so the rumor says. Interesting

Doubt it.

I bought BDX with the MCD money. They are growing like mad. Low yield, 10% div growth, and they're in healthcare which is just going to take off further in the future.

 

[ElKarlo]

Doubt it.

I bought BDX with the MCD money. They are growing like mad. Low yield, 10% div growth, and they're in healthcare which is just going to take off further in the future.

Well it could make the stock price move.

BDX looks like a good find from a quick glance.

 

[ElKarlo]

Sorry don't know much about go pro.


Psec is buying properties maybe diversifying into the REIT route?

 

[Phelly2]

Go Pro moved too quick for me. Jumped directly to resistance and is now going sideways. Meh, no trade there, even though it's up 17%

Anyways, I grudgingly sold half my CURE (which I bought last wednesday) at +20% because that's a super leveraged ETF and it's as extended as I've ever seen it.

Holding my stocks, though. Up comfortably on GILD, ILMN and MNST.

Also bought BITA at a break of its resistance at $83.30. That's one of the best growth stocks out there as far as fundamentals go, but it's been taking a break from its huge run and has been downtrending the last few months. I'm hoping for a renewed uptrend as it breaks through this cup and handle on the daily.


^ for BITA
The % change statistic on the quarterly EPS and sales refers to the change versus the same quarter the prior year.

 

[AggieBoy]

The King. I'm excited for a dollar bull, I was not trading yet during the last one.

Working on state space models in R for the weekend.

 

[AggieBoy]

Tough short term trading. That is quite a bit of uncertainty.

 

[ElKarlo]

A lot of nice earnings, UNP HON TXN all had great quarters. My Laggard, and a big part of my port %wise is IBM