Stats : 60 % of late replacement fights are lost by the fighter who had the short camp

[Killer Kadoogan]

Dude, let's see some more numbers. How many fights did you take into consideration? What is even defined as short notice? LOL.

 

[Kumason]

Tons and tons of fighters get UFC contracts by stepping up on super short notice for a UFC debut and pretty often in a weight class above their own. You lay it out so black and white.

 

[HavokHarmon]

Well given that the average fight is about 50% chance to win or lose it isn't that bad. Also given the fact that most short replacement fighters are usually lower ranked than the guy they are fighting, it pretty much evens out overall.

That’s a good point, I wonder what the numbers would look like if you controlled for fights where the late replacement fighter would have been the underdog even if they had both had full camps compared to the rate at which the favorite fighter in any bout wins.

I bet it ends up evening out.

 

[HHJ]

“You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning.”

“But I’m a genetic freak and I’m not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way, at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can’t beat me and he’s not even gonna try!”

“So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. Senior Joe, the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.”

 

[SuperNerd]

Lol, no source, no method, no questions.

#Sherdog #2020s

 

[Hazuki Ryo]

.
How big is this sample T.S

Like how many years/fights are included..

Whats the source of these stats?

Dude, let's see some more numbers. How many fights did you take into consideration? What is even defined as short notice? LOL.

Lol, no source, no method, no questions.

#Sherdog #2020s

Here is the source :

https://www.betmma.tips/ufc_late_replacement_fight_stats.php

 

[Harlekin]

Notable short camp wins :

Bendo against Thatch - Thatch never won again
Iaquinta vs Masvidal - Robbery
Diaz vs Mcgregor - 8min Gastank Conor
Luque vs Belal - Who?
Yair vs Korean Zombie - Lucky punch
Justin vs Ferguson - Ferguson past prime never won again
Bisping vs Rockhold 2 - Bisping knew from sparring how to beat him. Got headbutted and then headkicked on blind side in 1st

So unless you know something or your opponent is past prime - Chances are more like 20%

 

[HeffDoesWant]

Interesting, thanks for posting.

While the odds don't seem to lopsided when expressed as TS did, this is a real and very significant disadvantage.

The same numbers show the late notice fighter increases his chances of losing by 70% (63/37 -1) vs an otherwise standard fight (50/50 -1).

Most people don't really think of it this way.