Stats : 60 % of late replacement fights are lost by the fighter who had the short camp

[Hazuki Ryo]

Definitely a risky business.. You may well get more money from the greedy goof, but it's damaging for your career and your record.. And i'm not even talking about this being part of negociations tactics from the UFC to force a fight out of a fighter and the downside

Late Replacement Win %

Late Replacement Wins 179 37%
KOs / TKOs 54 30%
Submissions 40 22%
Decisions 84 47%

Late Replacement Losses 310 63%

KOs / TKOs 97 31%
Submissions 66 21% Decisions 147 47%

Notable short camp wins : Cerrone against Bendo, Bendo against Thatch, Iaquinta vs Masvidal, Diaz vs Mcgregor, Luque vs Belal, Yair vs Korean Zombie, Justin vs Ferguson, and of course Bisping vs Rockhold 2

Edit : forgot about the sauce !

Out of 489 fights, 310 are lost by the short camp challenger

https://www.betmma.tips/ufc_late_replacement_fight_stats.php

 

[Scheme]

Well given that the average fight is about 50% chance to win or lose it isn't that bad. Also given the fact that most short replacement fighters are usually lower ranked than the guy they are fighting, it pretty much evens out overall.

 

[OmegaRugal]

Honestly ... thought the odds would be worst than that.

 

[McGeezle]

Well it's not gonna be exactly 50% is it

 

[Paolo Delutis]

Definitely a risky business.. You may well get more money from the greedy goof, but it's damaging for your career and your record.. And i'm not even talking about this being part of negociations tactics from the UFC to force a fight out of a fighter and the downside

Late Replacement Win %

Late Replacement Wins 179 37%
KOs / TKOs 54 30%
Submissions 40 22%
Decisions 84 47%

Late Replacement Losses 310 63%

KOs / TKOs 97 31%
Submissions 66 21% Decisions 147 47%

Notable short camp wins : Cerrone against Bendo, Bendo against Thatch, Iaquinta vs Masvidal, Diaz vs Mcgregor, Luque vs Belal, Yair vs Korean Zombie, Justin vs Ferguson, and of course Bisping vs Rockhold 2

.
How big is this sample T.S

Like how many years/fights are included..

 

[ultra321]

 

[SeattleFightFan]

It's the indirect pressure that's the problem.

Same with accepting a fight when the opponent misses weight.

 

[Arm Barbarian]

Well given that the average fight is about 50% chance to win or lose it isn't that bad. Also given the fact that most short replacement fighters are usually lower ranked than the guy they are fighting, it pretty much evens out overall.

Thatcwas pretty much my take from this as well.

I would have thought it'd be much higher for the short camp, but as many fighters have said, sometimes the short notice = fewer injuries / feeling fresher, less banged up and worn than from a lengthy camp.

Main issues tend to be timing and cardio, or lack of game plan against a particular style.

 

[MigitAs]

Definitely a risky business.. You may well get more money from the greedy goof, but it's damaging for your career and your record.. And i'm not even talking about this being part of negociations tactics from the UFC to force a fight out of a fighter and the downside

Late Replacement Win %

Late Replacement Wins 179 37%
KOs / TKOs 54 30%
Submissions 40 22%
Decisions 84 47%

Late Replacement Losses 310 63%

KOs / TKOs 97 31%
Submissions 66 21% Decisions 147 47%

Notable short camp wins : Cerrone against Bendo, Bendo against Thatch, Iaquinta vs Masvidal, Diaz vs Mcgregor, Luque vs Belal, Yair vs Korean Zombie, Justin vs Ferguson, and of course Bisping vs Rockhold 2

Iaquinta gifted the decision by retarded judges

 

[Krimzon]

what's considered short notice? 1 week? 6 weeks? Depending on how you segment it, the differences in outcomes could be stark

 

[SeattleFightFan]

what's considered short notice? 1 week? 6 weeks? Depending on how you segment it, the differences in outcomes could be stark

 

[FlyingDeathKick]

A lot of time replacement fighters are lower tier guys tho so with that considered those odds are really good. Typically the ones that take short notice fights are the ones with something to gain so lower ranked fighters. Sometimes you'll have a top ranked guy vs a guy that is making their debut or not so good. For example Lando vs Tony and Horcher vs Khabib.

 

[HJ Penn]

Only meaningful if you control for who was ranked higher.

Needs more math.

 

[Crash-override]

Definitely a risky business.. You may well get more money from the greedy goof, but it's damaging for your career and your record.. And i'm not even talking about this being part of negociations tactics from the UFC to force a fight out of a fighter and the downside

Late Replacement Win %

Late Replacement Wins 179 37%
KOs / TKOs 54 30%
Submissions 40 22%
Decisions 84 47%

Late Replacement Losses 310 63%

KOs / TKOs 97 31%
Submissions 66 21% Decisions 147 47%

Notable short camp wins : Cerrone against Bendo, Bendo against Thatch, Iaquinta vs Masvidal, Diaz vs Mcgregor, Luque vs Belal, Yair vs Korean Zombie, Justin vs Ferguson, and of course Bisping vs Rockhold 2

Whats the source of these stats?

 

[laleggenda27]

It's situational. For a guy like Usman, who's lost a couple in a row and is obviously falling further away from his prime, it makes sense to roll the dice. There wasn't much to lose. But for guys like Volk and Aspinall, who were on the verge of getting the title fight anyway, it makes no sense to roll the dice by going in unprepared. Incredibly foolish. Even if they win, it was a completely unnecessary risk.

 

[eddi]

Definitely a risky business.. You may well get more money from the greedy goof, but it's damaging for your career and your record.. And i'm not even talking about this being part of negociations tactics from the UFC to force a fight out of a fighter and the downside

Late Replacement Win %

Late Replacement Wins 179 37%
KOs / TKOs 54 30%
Submissions 40 22%
Decisions 84 47%

Late Replacement Losses 310 63%

KOs / TKOs 97 31%
Submissions 66 21% Decisions 147 47%

Notable short camp wins : Cerrone against Bendo, Bendo against Thatch, Iaquinta vs Masvidal, Diaz vs Mcgregor, Luque vs Belal, Yair vs Korean Zombie, Justin vs Ferguson, and of course Bisping vs Rockhold 2

Meh 60% is close to 50% so its not a crazy difference tbh it could be accounted for just by the fact that people that accept short notice fights more often than not arent on a winning streak and are a bit more likely to lose

 

[jko1355]

To be honest, those aren't that long of odds... Even more so when often the replacement fighters weren't even signed to the UFC prior to their bouts...

hell it almost makes it not seem like a camp is close to as important as people think it is.

 

[old school 2]

If it is a late replacement then odds are the original fighter that dropped out didn’t like his own odds of winning even with a full camp.

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

Well given that the average fight is about 50% chance to win or lose it isn't that bad. Also given the fact that most short replacement fighters are usually lower ranked than the guy they are fighting, it pretty much evens out overall.

Eh, moving from even to just under 2 to 1 is not really very good. That's a stark enough difference that fighters should think twice.

 

[Skarsgard]

Shit, throw in that Cerrone and Al could have easily dropped those decisions. Yair was seconds away from losing as well.