Sherdog Analysis: How will Conor fare off his back against NuMonsterMedov?

[sapporo ichiban]

We all already know where these guys want this fight. Lets not pretend now that Conor is some wiz kid on the ground or that Khabib is a world class striker. Conor needs to be upright as much as possible and accumulate damage to end up in control of the tempo and Khabib needs to maul him and drain his gas tank. Aside from a flash knockout or a retarded ref which is entirely possible, we know what each guy is looking to do.

I don't think Khabib is stupid enough to get roped into a game of touch butt. I would assume that they are working on strategy to get this thing to the ground. I would also guess that Conor is working on how to find his way out of clinches and the quickest way back to the feet.

I am going with what history has shown us. Conor has gassing issues when pressed hard and caves under serious adversity. Unless the ref is instructed to stand them up the second Khabib pauses for a breath, they will spend some time on the mat.

 

[Juventud]

Considering we'll probably see him there, how long do you think he survives?

Give credit where it's due, Conor is working hard at improving.

Nate and Chad were busting him up and controlling him pretty good and lets face it, they ain't Khabib

Does he fare better than expected? Or a harmless gazelle better off in a Dagie prison?

God damn how many Conor losing to Khabib threads have you made this week?

Is 5 not enough?
You're obsessed with Conor.
You definitely secretly like him.

 

[fortheo]

I think he'll look better than expected on the ground, but it won't make much of a difference in the end.

 

[markg171]

And Mendes is not that strong of a grappler. Just a superb wrestler.

Mendes beat Jeff Glover by submission in a grappling competition lol.

The downplaying of Mendes’ grappling since this fight has been announced has been hilarious.

 

[BROWNPRIDE]

I think he will do go till the end of the 1st round the the eagle will maul him!

 

[fedoriswar37]

Hell get pounded,hell scramble,get hope ,get taken back down, rinse repeat.

 

[elanimalsantana]

 

[MCS]

Based on his past fights he'll try to secure full guard and throw elbows, try to butterfly/foot sweep when Khabib postures up. Tries to escape from the side once Khabib tries to pass.

I think those escape attempts will be his downfall since Khabib won't go for a risky choke, but he'll pass and the elbows come.

 

[68WCombatMedic]

Conor fans can't even acknowledge the possibility of him being on his back when it's a near certainty.

I hope they and Conor are preparing for it. I want this to at least be remotely competitive as a fan of good fights.

Don't group all fans together. The nuthuggers will tell you Khabib can't take him down and that "head clean off" bullshut. I'm a Conor fan and I can admit that there's a very high chance khabib takes him down. There's also a very high chance Conor catches Khabib with the left.

Ask yourself, how does Khabib secure most of his takedowns? A majority of the time he bull rushes opponents with hooks, his chin straigh up, going in a bee line to the cage. With Conor's movement and ability to counter strike, it's very likely he circles out and uses an angle to tag Khabib as he comes in. If Khabib can eat the shot, chances are he gets the takedown. However, he hasn't been hit by someone like Conor, so his ability to eat a clean left hand is an intangible that makes this fight even more interesting. Pressuring someone like Edson Barboza, who wilts under any form of pressure, is much different then pressuring a counter striker like Conor. Not to mention Conor holds the reach advantage, so in order to even grab a leg, Khabib needs to close that distance. But like I said, if Khabib grabs that leg, it's game over. He won't finish Conor in one round but he sure as shit can wear him out to the point where any future takedowns will be even easier.

It's gonna be a good fight, regardless.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

I don't think Khabib wants to get it done on the first TD.

He will likely do whatever he can to drain Conor's cardio though so he can tear him up throughout the fight.

Agreed. The blue print for beating Conor isn't to fight fire with fire, it is to throw water on the flame until it dies down and then finish the job. He, in a lot of ways is like Rumble, and you have to concede the early parts of the fight, if no reason other than the fact that it is much more intelligent. If Mayweather, the greatest boxer of our generation (arguably) did this, wanted nothing with fresh McGregor in big boxing gloves, then Khabib surely has to realize this.

The big issue here tho is how much progress has Conor made, and, can Khabib even weather the storm? Even in the fights Conor has lost, he inflicted tremendous damage (boxing excluded, and even then, he won the early rounds). Khabib is not an explosive wrestler like Chad, and Conor will surely have much better TDD than the Chad fight and have more than one knee. It's a great fight, and very much a coin flip.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Based on his past fights he'll try to secure full guard and throw elbows, try to butterfly/foot sweep when Khabib postures up. Tries to escape from the side once Khabib tries to pass.

I think those escape attempts will be his downfall since Khabib won't go for a risky choke, but he'll pass and the elbows come.

Thing is, that was over three years ago and Conor's best friend, Dillon Danis, is one of the most crafty and aggressive bottom grapplers we have ever seen. Kavanagh and Gunni are top position BJJ grapplers, and Conor never had access to a high level bottom game guy. I fully expect Danis' influence to be seen, and Conor has shown the capacity to make giant leaps and bounds in small periods of times. He went from a Liddell like brawler to a matrix counter sniper in just a few years, so I expect to see improvement when it hits the ground, and no Barboza mauling like blow out like some are expecting.

 

[Irresponsible Dad]

 

[Mysterio]

 

[Hardkore]

Considering we'll probably see him there, how long do you think he survives?

He spent about 6 of the 9.5 minutes of his fight with Mendes on his back and he looked pretty helpless until Mendes went for a botched submission attempt. You have to figure that much time on his back could be disastrous with Khabib, who has much better top control.

Nate and Chad were busting him up and controlling him pretty good and lets face it, they ain't Khabib

Does he fare better than expected? Or a harmless gazelle better off in a Dagie prison?

I think we know the answer to those questions mi amigo

 

[Hardkore]

He will get beat up and stare at the ref like he did against tiny Chad hoping for a standup , Khabib will just keep beating him, and Conor will turn his back to hope he gets choked

What's up, Scottie. Long time no see. Hope you're well

 

[Workaholic]

He will do terribly off of his back

Just like everyone else does against Khabib. The goal for Conor has to be to never get to that position, not to try and compete there if he does.

 

[Hardkore]

Khabib fans sound an awful lot like Aldo fans, with how sure they are of the outcome.

Never speak in absolutes about MMA. It never turns out well.

Good points cant argue with you there

 

[Hardkore]

This little scramble/sweep he hit on Diaz in the first round of their first fight was pretty slick actually.

Idk how he will fare against Khabib but this notion he is garbage on the ground and has no ground game is just hater shit

He's garbage just like yourself

 

[Hardkore]

It's not like he has no groundgame.

He might even get a surprise sweep or a good scramble same as Khabib could land a good shot on the feet.

But Khabib would beat him up pretty bad on the ground. He has done so vs better grapplers. He has to avoid the mat at all cost or he will get worn down and then beat up pretty bad.

I have not seen a strong ability from him to get back up from under a strong grappler. A much smaller Mendes had little problem controlling him until he went for desperate guillotines from guard because he was gassing hard. And Mendes is not that strong of a grappler. Just a superb wrestler.

I'm highly doubtful he's going to sweep Kebab from top posish off his back

 

[stephen90]

God damn how many Conor losing to Khabib threads have you made this week?

Is 5 not enough?
You're obsessed with Conor.
You definitely secretly like him.

Conor turned him down for a date.