Well, David Axelrod has been the most frequent buzzkill. Particularly when New York Times released their very favorable for Harris Rust Belt polls a few weeks ago. He said they didn’t square with Harris’ own internals at all. He didn’t say she was losing in those internals but the best he was offering was maybe a 1 point lead in Wisconsin(the hardest state to accurately poll in the country seemingly).
He has since gone on to say if it was held today Trump would win.
Axelrod is of course a well connected democratic consultant and I believe he has indeed seen the internals.
Jake Tapper also said he has heard from multiple sources that internals are rough for Harris, in particular, Pennsylvania. His source may very well have been Axelrod though.
The most notable was Chauncey McLean who is the top fundraiser for democrats said at an event that the public polling is far too optimistic and the internals are “less rosy”. I would think he’s just trying to scare donors into throwing cash at him but the mainstream public swing state polling averages is already razor thin, so to say the internals are “less rosy” than that..well it squares.
It’s squares with the more right leaning pollsters who are out in the field. Know all the other people in the industry that have also said they have seen what her internals look like and they aren’t much better than *pre-debate* Biden.
This was all during her “honeymoon” period as well. Her polling on average is slipping since the DNC. Trump has mostly stayed steady in public polling.
Then there is that random trip to New Hampshire lol…what’s that all about? Thats supposed to be a likely D. Thats another thing. Polls in likely D and R states haven’t changed for Harris from Biden, but shouldn’t the “momentum” be obvious everywhere? How is she surging in GA and NC but pacing 5 points behind Biden in Virginia which multiple recent polls have within the margin of error.
We’ll see but a lot of pollsters have her with razor thin national leads(if leading at all) that don’t indicate an Electoral College win if 2016 and 2020 are any indication.