International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V8

[Rholk]

 

[Queen B]

Newly russian civilians get to be absolutely fucked.





He is Igor "Strelkov" Girkin. Piece of shit war criminal who played important role in "local" uprising in Donbas around 2014. Also posts funny Telegram rants.

So whats he gonna do with Martial Law?

It was technically under martial law the whole time. I think he's declaring Martial Law as a political message that the land is his

 

[PEB]

So whats he gonna do with Martial Law?

It was technically under martial law the whole time. I think he's declaring Martial Law as a political message that the land is his

True but he ordered Russians and Military out of the region making me believe he is ether planning to bomb the shit out of the area or using a tactical nuke especially before the critical US elections. He could use that time to send shockwaves around the world that he is fully capable to launch nukes. That is what I am worried about right now the Oct/November surprise because he is evil to the core and not one US government official willing to say he is bluffing. Relatively low yield could still do much about scaring people at a time that the US elections are happening. Make a mess on the world stage and likely cause India to totally drop this F up relationship and get a reprimand by China.


EDIT: Russia going to bomb the shit out of Kherson and blame Ukraine.

 

[Denter]

Most likely. I've been to numerous places in Ukraine and numerous places in Russia. While Ukraine is like cheap as all hell, there definitely isn't the vibe of corruption open in the air that's in Russia. You feel it everywhere - it is big and blatant. I don't doubt Ukraine has severe issues too, but a more western approach as opposed to Russian approach is in their best interest.

At the end of the day, there is this question about well, Russia doesn't want NATO on its border, much like the USA wouldn't want pro-Russian governments on theirs etc. Which is true. But the fact is there's good reason why Russia is not a great geopolitical partner, and what would be ideal would be sufficient reform in Russia to make a country like Ukraine want to be their ally. I would think the USA would have to have to take a severe look in the mirror if Canada or Mexico preferred to join a military alliance with Russia than the U.S. Yeah, there was Cuba, but it was a bit of a different time where the level of neglect in Latin America was palpable. There's that expression of Voltaire about if God didn't exist, it would be necessary to invent him. I may have butchered that, but also recall some latin american leader saying "thank God for Fidel Castro, if he didn't exist we'd need to invent him" because during the Cold War all of a sudden funds and relief was being sent into Latin America to avoid spread of socialism/communism. Perhaps an argument for the benefits of a mulit-polar superpower world.

Anyhow, there's also a legit argument that a good portion of Ukraine does indeed want Russia as their ally and not NATO, especially in the east for cultural reasons. The divide in Ukraine is of course greater than the widening gap between democrats and republicans for obvious reasons, but Ukraine actually has the benefit of their divide being pretty easily geographically seen as compared to the U.S. where democrats are all around the coast.

I don't think it's a bad outcome for all involved if the pro-Russian areas become part of Russia to be honest, but I think the issue is that is very resource rich areas, and the desire of NATO to bleed the Russian economy through this war - there's a financial cost to them but of course the body count is disposable Ukrainians. I'm rambling, but reality is Russia needs a lot of internal reform to maximize the tremendous amount of land and resources they already have, it feels like such a better use of time and resources than invading Ukraine, but convincing corrupt officials to do this is of course a gargantuan task.

Good post- I agree. Its not like Russia lacks land or natural resources, far from it.

 

[PEB]

 

[Strychnine]

True but he ordered Russians and Military out of the region making me believe he is ether planning to bomb the shit out of the area or using a tactical nuke especially before the critical US elections. He could use that time to send shockwaves around the world that he is fully capable to launch nukes. That is what I am worried about right now the Oct/November surprise because he is evil to the core and not one US government official willing to say he is bluffing. Relatively low yield could still do much about scaring people at a time that the US elections are happening. Make a mess on the world stage and likely cause India to totally drop this F up relationship and get a reprimand by China.


EDIT: Russia going to bomb the shit out of Kherson and blame Ukraine.

Yeah, they'll try to spin it that way but anyone with a satellite can tell which country is shooting into where. If Russia pops off a nuke, the entire world will see how easily their weapons outside of Russia could be targeted.




Timestamped.

 

[PEB]

 

[Strychnine]

Something tells me that bearded guy in the hoodie won't be in Russia for very long. He'll either flee Russia or be back in Ukraine whether he wants to or not.

 

[PEB]

Yeah, they'll try to spin it that way but anyone with a satellite can tell which country is shooting into where.

True this is Putin he will continue to get support from his sycophants such as North Korea and Iran and they will applaud his efforts.

 

[PEB]

Something tells me that bearded guy in the hoodie won't be in Russia for very long. He'll either flee Russia or be back in Ukraine whether he wants to or not.

LOL so true younger Russians are too smart.

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

True this is Putin he will continue to get support from his sycophants such as North Korea and Iran and they will applaud his efforts.

And looks that now with ample supplies of Iranian drones not likely they will use nuke.
These drones are cheap, they have damn a lot of them and ....might launch in short timeframe dozens of them on one target...
Maybe even 50 drones during 20 minutes...

It is assumed that itan drone might cost just 20000. Thocka U missile despite obsolete cost 300 000.

 

[Rational Poster]

And looks that now with ample supplies of Iranian drones not likely they will use nuke.
These drones are cheap, they have damn a lot of them and ....might launch in short timeframe dozens of them on one target...
Maybe even 50 drones during 20 minutes...

It is assumed that itan drone might cost just 20000. Thocka U missile despite obsolete cost 300 000.

I think some autocanons and .50cals should do the trick.

Possible some electronic jammers even. I doubt the electronics are that sophisticated.

Some kind of land based Phalanx CIWS would be perfect. I know the US has various CRAM projects both mobile and static.

 

[SandisLL]

I think some autocanons and .50cals should do the trick.

Possible even some electronic jammers, even. I doubt the electronics are that sophisticated.

The problems most likely are cos these cheap drones might not use radio guidance.
They does have some autopilot and entered coordinates etc....and then...they just launch them.
Maybe they are able to use GPS or intertial guidance.

Cheap solutions .....

And ofc they for sure does have high circular error ....
While if cheap?
Might launch 10 drones on 1 transformator....
Despite this in no case might disrupt electricity supplies to military...in no case.
Civilians and businesses will suffer, not military or police...they does have generators ....and fuel for them.

_/
IMHO jammers ofc should be supplied cos they use also more advanced drones ( and more expensive )....

While with Iran drones looks that they need huge supplies with autocannons and 50 cal...
And decent warning systems...

___
MANPADS supplies are impacted cos huge demand from NATO countries in europe for their own needs.
And most capable against such stuff mapads are booked to buy this year....for very good price...
___

 

[Rod1]

Possible some electronic jammers even. I doubt the electronics are that sophisticated.

Yeah, my guess is that they use mostly inertial guidance and GPS, GPS can be jammed but inertial guidance can't.

My guess is that if they have GPS on board and not just inertial guidance the GPS just serves to correct the flight path every once and then and by the time they are near target they will just rely on its inertial guidance system.

 

[Rational Poster]

The problems most likely are cos these cheap drones might not use radio guidance.
They does have some autopilot and entered coordinates etc....and then...they just launch them.
Maybe they are able to use GPS or intertial guidance.

Cheap solutions .....

And ofc they for sure does have high circular error ....
While if cheap?
Might launch 10 drones on 1 transformator....
Despite this in no case might disrupt electricity supplies to military...in no case.
Civilians and businesses will suffer, not military or police...they does have generators ....and fuel for them.

_/
IMHO jammers ofc should be supplied cos they use also more advanced drones ( and more expensive )....

While with Iran drones looks that they need huge supplies with autocannons and 50 cal...
And decent warning systems...

___
MANPADS supplies are impacted cos huge demand from NATO countries in europe for their own needs.
And most capable against such stuff mapads are booked to buy this year....for very good price...
___

The land based CIWS systems come with their own radar for detection and fire control. They are deadly accurate too, can shoot down artillery and mortar rounds even, so slow and cheap Iranian drone would be no problem.

They also use 20mm ammunition which is quite plentiful I'm sure.

Germany has a land based CIWS also, but it's 35mm.

 

[Rholk]

Very legit:

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

True but he ordered Russians and Military out of the region making me believe he is ether planning to bomb the shit out of the area or using a tactical nuke especially before the critical US elections. He could use that time to send shockwaves around the world that he is fully capable to launch nukes. That is what I am worried about right now the Oct/November surprise because he is evil to the core and not one US government official willing to say he is bluffing. Relatively low yield could still do much about scaring people at a time that the US elections are happening. Make a mess on the world stage and likely cause India to totally drop this F up relationship and get a reprimand by China.


EDIT: Russia going to bomb the shit out of Kherson and blame Ukraine.

Is it mandatory if your Russian to use propaganda,misinformation and flat out lies every time they say anything?

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Very legit:

LOL for sure, what were they trying to hit with the rocket launchers? There was nothing in sight....

 

[Rod1]

The land based CIWS systems come with their own radar for detection and fire control. They are deadly accurate too, can shoot down artillery and mortar rounds even, so slow and cheap Iranian drone would be no problem.

They also use 20mm ammunition which is quite plentiful I'm sure.

Germany has a land based CIWS also, but it's 35mm.

You kind of put those systems near value targets, really hard to get said systems to defend the entire country.