International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V7

[Cole train]

That money is not necessarily coming from Russia but other Muslim nations.

Possible

but generally Putin paying kadyrov to keep chechnya calm and all militant groups under control is pretty much public knowledge for a while, no need for independence now since quality of life for chenchens is good nowadays for russia

 

[SandisLL]

Possible

but generally Putin paying kadyrov to keep chechnya calm ia

This...
+ during 30+ years a lot of not statiafied with russia checens had relocated from this area...

& quality of life is good only in Grozny...city...

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[ferrisjso]

Well they aren't stupid. They clearly show the ability to adjust. Probably just convincing people that the nazis are putting up a fiercer resistance than expected.

Here's the thing if Russia was "losing" why expand the mission to another 2 provinces(Kharkov and the hard to spell one)? Once Donetsk falls Russia has the ability to say mission accomplished to their people and just hold their gains(a much less manpower intensive task than taking new territory). They have their land bridge, they have about half of the 2 aformentioned provines and once LPR/DPR are independent they can say the mission was a success. Even now DPR controls enough territory to claim independece they just don't have the entire Donetsk Oblast.

Why would Russia expand their mission a bit if they were concerned about not being able to carry out their initial more limited mission? Russia already has the ability to save face if they truly could not move any further.

 

[Rholk]

Here's the thing if Russia was "losing" why expand the mission to another 2 provinces(Kharkov and the hard to spell one)? Once Donetsk falls Russia has the ability to say mission accomplished to their people and just hold their gains(a much less manpower intensive task than taking new territory). They have their land bridge, they have half of Kharkov Oblast and once LPR/DPR are independent they can say the mission was a success. Even now DPR controls enough territory to claim independece they just don't have the entire Donetsk Oblast.

Why would Russia expand their mission a bit if they were concerned about not being able to carry out their initial mission?

You mean the the provinces they "added" after they failed to take Kiev and topple the entire government?

 

[SandisLL]

Initial mission according to Putin was....total deNazification of all Ukraine...hd told this in russia's media for russians....

Ohh and Moldova & Georgia are in list as next...

 

[ferrisjso]

You mean the the provinces they "added" after they failed to take Kiev and topple the entire government?

They were never going to keep Kiev like you said the point of Kiev was to topple the govt and force Ukraine to come to terms right away. They did fail to take Kiev not because they weren't capable of taking it but because they weren't capable of taking it right away with minimal casualties which was the whole point. Massive casualties taking Kiev would have killed Russian support for the war and made it impossible to acheive their actual mission in the East and south.

With the exodus of the Ukranian rights political opposition from the country, Ukraine will always have a pro NATO/EU leader from this point forth. Russia isn't trying to prevent this anymore if anything this invasion is an acknowledgment of this as they are taking the pro Russian areas out of the country they once sought to use to keep Ukraine neutral.

 

[SandisLL]

Ohh and this Kremlin's advocate here will post next excuses that Moldova and Georgia too are threats...

They already suggested to do referendums in separatists controlled areas in Georgia and Moldova...etc stuff...

hipster is just nice Kremlin's advocate here...
Predicatble job btw...

 

[Denter]

see those pipelines? something like 30-40% of russian engergy exports flows through Ukraine. Ukraine in the past 2 years has signed 10's of billions worth of contracts with western energy companies to exploit newly discovered gas and oil fields within Ukraine. Now when Ukraine develops these resources how do you think they would plan to export them? Are you putting it together yet? A fully developed energy sector in Ukraine will cut off Russian access to the pipes within Ukraine (fully legal, these pipes belong to Ukraine). The pipes will then be used to export Ukrainian energy to western Europe. This would be a two-punch combo to Russia. Russia would lose capacity to supply western Europe and have a competitor with an established infrastructure to get their energy products to market. This is a war about natural resources and the infrastructure to get it to market. Everything else (nazis, NATO, Crimea fresh water access, etc.) is a lie.

This makes the most sense out of any of the explanations. Russia already assured that Ukraine would not be in NATO in 2014; that's why I thought no invasion would happen- Russia's main worry had been averted by "gifting" Ukraine a permanent territorial dispute. But like you said, if the above gas discoveries were real and going to be developed, that put Russia on a serious timetable for its invasion, and explains all the ludicrous propaganda like the NATO stuff. NATO was never going to attack Russia directly; Russia has first and second strike nuclear deterrents, plus a well-known "dead hand" retaliatory system set up.

 

[ferrisjso]

Initial mission according to Putin was....total deNazification of all Ukraine...hd told this in russia's media for russians....

Ohh and Moldova & Georgia are in list as next...

That was not realistic unfortunatly. The more limited way to take that statement was taking out the Avoz battalion.

Also people proclaim ambitious goals they don't believe they can acheive for propaganda purposes. You know like Zelensky claiming he can retake the Donbass from Russia.

 

[Badr Hari]

This makes the most sense out of any of the explanations. Russia already assured that Ukraine would not be in NATO in 2014; that's why I thought no invasion would happen- Russia's main worry had been averted by "gifting" Ukraine a permanent territorial dispute. But like you said, if the above gas discoveries were real and going to be developed, that put Russia on a serious timetable for its invasion, and explains all the ludicrous propaganda like the NATO stuff. NATO was never going to attack Russia directly; Russia has first and second strike nuclear deterrents, plus a well-known "dead hand" retaliatory system set up.

Yeah first heard about this from @AWilder seems like quite a strong motive (among the already mentioned reasons by all of us in these threads)

 

[Badr Hari]

Is Ukraine and not Wuhan the origin of covid-19 and is Ukraine filled with biolabs sponsored by democrats from US with the intention to spread diseases and kill millions?

Or is modern Russia still following the Soviet doctrine of 'defeating' the West (in the eyes of its own public) only via disinformation?

 

[A Very Serious Cat]

Any updates on the kherson counter offensive?

 

[GhostZ06]

Any updates on the kherson counter offensive?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ant-as-artillery-base-sparking-disaster-fears

theyre idiots

 

[AWilder]

Yeah first heard about this from @AWilder seems like quite a strong motive (among the already mentioned reasons by all of us in these threads)

It's logical, and Putin might be crazy but there's a method to his madness. It would be a major blow to Russia who is SO dependant on energy exports. It's the combination of shutting the pipes off to Russia while producing their own supply that is a major economic victory that Russia has no means to combat, except by combat! There's also larger geopolitical threats as the energy products from the Caspian sea are getting more capacity through turkey. All these tightening the squeeze on Russia's future.

 

[Badr Hari]

Any updates on the kherson counter offensive?

From what I've seen it hasn't started yet. There is a lot of home work the AF of Ukraine have to do before starting such a thing for real. Destroying bridges and depots on the western side isn't a bad start but we'll see.

 

[GhostZ06]

From what I've seen it hasn't started yet. There is a lot of home work the AF of Ukraine have to do before starting such a thing for real. Destroying bridges and depots on the western side isn't a bad start but we'll see.

i think it started in some where, but i know they been putting a lot of armored forces there.

 

[Denter]

Yeah first heard about this from @AWilder seems like quite a strong motive (among the already mentioned reasons by all of us in these threads)

On the other hand, this discredits the "Putin the madman" narrative and also puts the war into a dangerous perspective; an ideological adventure could easily be written off if not successful, but a war over so much money and influence means there really can be no backing down from either side until one loses and one wins.

 

[SandisLL]

This makes the most sense out of any of the explanations. Russia already assured that Ukraine would not be in NATO in 2014; that's why I thought no invasion would happen- Russia's main worry had been averted by "gifting" Ukraine a permanent territorial dispute. But like you said, if the above gas discoveries were real and going to be developed, that put Russia on a serious timetable for its invasion, and explains all the ludicrous propaganda like the NATO stuff. NATO was never going to attack Russia directly; Russia has first and second strike nuclear deterrents, plus a well-known "dead hand" retaliatory system set up.

Actually things about reality how strong in europe is opoosition against Ukraine in EU or NATO....
Were well known already in 2008 th......

& There damn a lot reasons and countries opposing to this ...
& For multiple reasons....

Kremlin knew this pretty well.

If even I then knew this and majority of ppl I knew then....despite we then had little time to read articles about politic stuff.

/ there even before 2008 th were a lot of reaons WHY...

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IMHO Kremlin did this 2022 th war cos assumed that with help from traitors and saboteurs & diversants and provocators....they easily will submit Ukraine quickly ....
Government will flee to foreign countries.
Disstatisfied with russia ppl will quickly relocate to West.
Puppet in Kiev installed...

Then easy to deNazify Moldova....

+++ with all Ukraine in Kremlin's hands they had even more huge impact in world's food export market and ofc had more tools to blackmail West even more than today....

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Like this...

 

[SandisLL]

People usuly are paying attention only about natural gas and crude oil....

However there are other things usable to increase geo political power besides natural gas and crude oil.

1. Donbas is coal mining region.
War increases coal prices and....captured mines might be used....even to get coal in order to sell this to China...why not. antracite, hard coal...

2. Ukraine is important grain, wheat and corp etc exporter to North Africa and Middle east.
Already easily to see how huge geo political power increase Kremlin might get if will control all Ukraine...
3. Europe uses a lot vegetable oil to produce...biodiesel...
+ funny thing that it is largest vetetable oils and sunflower seeds exporter to Europe...

# to replace vegetable oil supplier is more difficult than crude oil supplier...
Because harvest should be in place otherwise you will not produce vegetable oil.
It is 12 months planning period for vegetable oil producers...

We all saw how sharply and quickly rised vegetable oil prices after Ukraine had been invaded...
Crude oil prices hike wasnt 2X and more...
///

New next tool to earn money and...blackmail west...
__

It is so easy also to see how and why all these Russia's tales about oppressed russians and nazis in Donbas are fake.

1992-2012..
20 years in row ppl often had relocated from Donbas and Luhansk to Kiev etc or Russia.
Cos poor region with low salaries and high unemployment...

Then Russia didn't had saw nazis and oppressed russians in Donbas and Luhansk...

The same btw about Crimea: it really was region with high living expenses, high unemployment and low salaries...
Again a lot of ppl had relocated from Crimea these 22 years in row...

0 problems for Kremlin with this...

The factors with Crimea were harsh...
1952-1992 it was elite place for toursim. No1 in USSR...
While besides tourism they had economy like large military bases...

When russians and ukr who had money get opportunities to travel aboard and even invest in foreign countries...
They forget Crimea and spent vacations and invested in Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, traveled to Spain and Israel, Switzerland, Italy etc...
__
Crimea lost previously huge $$$$ influx and never regained it...
While no one gave a f***
+ new internal investments trend was to get mortgage and businesses in Kiev, Moscow, St.Pete...
So they didn't get money even from investors villing to invest in the same Ukr or Russia...