International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V7

[A Very Serious Cat]

They are defending themselves against a nation that is unfriendly to us and as a result limiting their sphere of influence.... obviously its mutually beneficial.

But the bottom line is if Ukraine didn't want to fight, there would be no way we could make them.

Well you could argue you only really need the govt on some onboard and conscription does the rest but I can't be bothered getting into the ethics of conscription

 

[ferrisjso]

The poster I was replying to was blaming the US for spending Ukraine lives, which is outright wrong. You can blame Zelensky for fighting if you want... but he really is just representing the will of his people who would rather defend themselves than surrender. If he didn't have their support, he wouldn't have lasted this long.

Also I don't blame him for wanting to risk WW3 over his country being invaded. We aren't going to oblige him on that... but you can guarantee that if the US, Russia, or any other superpower was invaded, which ever guy in charge would absolutely start WW3 over it.

He is giving a false impression victory is doable. He says "we will take back every inch of occupied land(paraphrasing). That ain't happenning, he knows that ain't happening and he's peddling it anyway and is viewed as a hero because of it. I find it absolutley disguisting. This selfless hero is on Vogue magazine posing while his soldiers are dying fighting an unwinnable war to acheive goals the govt knows can't be acheived, that's despicable.

I respect you for at least acknowledging it but I'm sorry I don't respect Zelenskys wanting to risk WW3. I find it morally repulsive. Even over total invasion, but he's just losing border territories who mostly don't want to be there. Your country's borders are not worth risking your species. Then again apparently fossil fuel profits are so I guess by that logic it's totally worth it. Nuclear superpowers the dynamic is more complicated that's not the same because it's more of an automated process and the nuclear arsenal and MAD is designed to make your scenario impossible.

 

[Vergilius]

I will say Ukraine got screwed by trading their nukes for Crimea. But regardless Crimea was still Russian. Russia didn't plan to take Crimea from the start but leaving Russia's orbit and going into the West's orbit and potentially NATO means all of Ukraine is forever lost to Russia's orbit. Crimea was simply too strategically important to let that happen.

The Donbass isn't as important but the same general dynamic underlies this invasion. If Ukraine goes into the western orbit all these areas are forever lost and Russia is taking back these areas before that happens. Even so Russia's plan A was to use Donbass to politically make Ukraine neutral this invasion is only happening because that failed and instead of being given autonomy and influence in the govt LPR/DPR were shelled for years. They tried that plan for about 8 years.

Also both the US and Russia installed puppet governments. But the Russian puppet won via regular election, the US one was elected after overthrowing the Russia one via coup.

...but there's been six elections after that overthrow, each returning a Western-oriented president.

 

[ferrisjso]

...but there's been six elections after that overthrow, each returning a Western-oriented president.

Yes elections where the previous presidents party didn't participate and an election that didn't include the Donbass. Also there's been 2 elections, for President anyway.

In any case the elections are irelevant, in 2010 both sides were within a few points on strictly regional lines where their candidate usually got 80% plus of the vote(the most partisan US states don't hit 70). I previously did a much more detailed post breaking this down. Which candidate won by a few points doesn't change that both sides of the country wanted strictly different things by overwhelming margins.

 

[Vergilius]

He is giving a false impression victory is doable. He says "we will take back every inch of occupied land(paraphrasing). That ain't happenning, he knows that ain't happening and he's peddling it anyway and is viewed as a hero because of it. I find it absolutley disguisting. This selfless hero is on Vogue magazine posing while his soldiers are dying fighting an unwinnable war to acheive goals the govt knows can't be acheived, that's despicable.

I respect you for at least acknowledging it but I'm sorry I don't respect Zelenskys wanting to risk WW3. I find it morally repulsive. Even over total invasion, but he's just losing border territories who mostly don't want to be there. Your country's borders are not worth risking your species. Then again apparently fossil fuel profits are so I guess by that logic it's totally worth it. Nuclear superpowers the dynamic is more complicated that's not the same because it's more of an automated process and the nuclear arsenal and MAD is designed to make your scenario impossible.

You simply don't KNOW if it's possible for the Ukraine to retake territory or not. That's because nobody, not Russia, not the West, not the Ukrainians themselves can be sure. It depends on the state of the two armies. This is a war of attrition now, and it doesn't matter all that much who takes what village or minor town in the Donbass. What matters is what happens to the two armies. If your army suffers critical losses, even while winning, you can quickly be driven from whatever gains you've made. That's what happened to the Germans in WWII.

For Ukraine, it is critical to come out of this war with as much of Kherson Oblast in their hands as possible. A fortified Kherson Oblast will make it MUCH harder for Putin to repeat his invasion in another 7 years, which most people would agree he is likely to try if he can. All of you calling for immediate concessions and peace need to recognize that handing the Russians what they want will likely only lead to a respite, because they will believe they can get EVEN MORE in another round of fighting later.

If the Ukrainians can reverse some of the major Russian gains outside the Donbass, there is likely a MUCH better chance for a lasting peace.

I include a podcast featuring Michael Kofmann, a true expert on Russia and Ukraine, discussing why this might be Ukraine's window of opportunity coming up:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/ukraines-window-of-opportunity/

 

[ferrisjso]

You simply don't KNOW if it's possible for the Ukraine to retake territory or not. That's because nobody, not Russia, not the West, not the Ukrainians themselves can be sure. It depends on the state of the two armies. This is a war of attrition now, and it doesn't matter all that much who takes what village or minor town in the Donbass. What matters is what happens to the two armies. If your army suffers critical losses, even while winning, you can quickly be driven from whatever gains you've made. That's what happened to the Germans in WWII.

For Ukraine, it is critical to come out of this war with as much of Kherson Oblast in their hands as possible. A fortified Kherson Oblast will make it MUCH harder for Putin to repeat his invasion in another 7 years, which most people would agree he is likely to try if he can. All of you calling for immediate concessions and peace need to recognize that handing the Russians what they want will likely only lead to a respite, because they will believe they can get EVEN MORE in another round of fighting later.

If the Ukrainians can reverse some of the major Russian gains outside the Donbass, there is likely a MUCH better chance for a lasting peace.

I include a podcast featuring Michael Kofmann, a true expert on Russia and Ukraine, discussing why this might be Ukraine's window of opportunity coming up:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/ukraines-window-of-opportunity/

I've said Kherson might be possible(it's an isolated city on the other side of the Dneiper) it's certainly makes the most sense for Ukraine to target(though I doubt even that). But yeah I'd be absolutley flabbergasted if Ukraine retook anything else. And Zelensky ain't limiting himself to Kherson btw in his rhetoric. It is possible Russia gives Kherson back via settlement because the Dneiper is a convinenant border for both sides. It's why I've predicted if push comes to shove the Dneiper would be the absolute limit of how far Russia would be willing to go.

I'm not predicting Ukraine will take Kherson I'm conceding it's possible.

East of the Dneiper I'm confident in my assertion that Ukraine can't take anything back.

This invasion was basically a concession that the rest of Ukraine will go into the western orbit this is Russia taking the friendly parts out before that happens. In 7 years Ukraine is likely to be in the EU and/or NATO. The best chance for a lasting peace is for both parts of Ukraine to go their seperate ways.

I mean we're not viewing this from a pro Ukraine perspective most of us are against the Western order and some of us are also pro LPR/DPR. But that doesn't that bias is coloring our assessment of the situation. In terms of optimism about Ukraine I don't think that's true Russia is simply considerably stronger.

Germany v USSR was an all or nothing death match(as Hitlers goal was mass murder along with conquest) entirely different, most of Russia and even in Ukraine isn't really at war, this is mostly a border conflict.

 

[LangfordBarrow]

I will say Ukraine got screwed by trading their nukes for Crimea. But regardless Crimea was still Russian. Russia didn't plan to take Crimea from the start but leaving Russia's orbit and going into the West's orbit and potentially NATO means all of Ukraine is forever lost to Russia's orbit. Crimea was simply too strategically important to let that happen.

The Donbass isn't as important but the same general dynamic underlies this invasion. If Ukraine goes into the western orbit all these areas are forever lost and Russia is taking back these areas before that happens. Even so Russia's plan A was to use Donbass to politically make Ukraine neutral this invasion is only happening because that failed and instead of being given autonomy and influence in the govt LPR/DPR were shelled for years. They tried that plan for about 8 years.

Also both the US and Russia installed puppet governments. But the Russian puppet won via regular election, the US one was elected after overthrowing the Russia one via coup.

 

[Vergilius]

I've said Kherson might be possible(it's an isolated city on the other side of the Dneiper) it's certainly makes the most sense for Ukraine to target(though I doubt even that). But yeah I'd be absolutley flabbergasted if Ukraine retook anything else. And Zelensky ain't limiting himself to Kherson btw in his rhetoric. It is possible Russia gives Kherson back via settlement because the Dneiper is a convinenant border for both sides. It's why I've predicted if push comes to shove the Dneiper would be the absolute limit of how far Russia would be willing to go.

I'm not predicting Ukraine will take Kherson I'm conceding it's possible.

East of the Dneiper I'm confident in my assertion that Ukraine can't take anything back.

This invasion was basically a concession that the rest of Ukraine will go into the western orbit this is Russia taking the friendly parts out before that happens. In 7 years Ukraine is likely to be in the EU and/or NATO. The best chance for a lasting peace is for both parts of Ukraine to go their seperate ways.

I mean we're not viewing this from a pro Ukraine perspective most of us are against the Western order and some of us are also pro LPR/DPR. But that doesn't that bias is coloring our assessment of the situation. In terms of optimism about Ukraine I don't think that's true Russia is simply considerably stronger.

Germany v USSR was an all or nothing death match(as Hitlers goal was mass murder along with conquest) entirely different, most of Russia and even in Ukraine isn't really at war, this is mostly a border conflict.

Again, you simply don't KNOW what is militarily possible. Nobody really does. Almost every expert you could find predicted that Russia would roll over the Ukraine. That clearly didn't happen. We've got better data than we did before before the war, but it is still very incomplete. We can't be sure how a wider Ukrainian offense will go until we see it. It may be impossible to achieve complete victory, but the Russians are thin on the ground with just 150.000-200.000 troops in an area fought over by millions in WWII. It's not inconceivable their lines could break if their advantage in fires truly goes.

Furthermore, there is NO SIGN that Putin wants to come to a settlement. As in none. You guys calling for concessions and talks need to recognize that as a fact. Lavrov and Medvedev are still openly talking about regime change and making existential threats against Ukraine ("Who knows if Ukraine will even exist in a couple of years time" - Medvedev) To make matters worse, Russia has broken basically every contract and agreement with the West and Ukraine it had entered into over the past 6 months - in international relations, business, energy and even the grain deal is shaky. It must be considered a VERY unreliable partner.

 

[Fox by the Sea]

yeah, the russians ain't losing kherson.
the ukrainian kherson offensive is happening mostly on twitter, sadly.

 

[Plastikman_Eire]

He is giving a false impression victory is doable. He says "we will take back every inch of occupied land(paraphrasing). That ain't happenning, he knows that ain't happening and he's peddling it anyway and is viewed as a hero because of it. I find it absolutley disguisting. This selfless hero is on Vogue magazine posing while his soldiers are dying fighting an unwinnable war to acheive goals the govt knows can't be acheived, that's despicable.

I respect you for at least acknowledging it but I'm sorry I don't respect Zelenskys wanting to risk WW3. I find it morally repulsive. Even over total invasion, but he's just losing border territories who mostly don't want to be there. Your country's borders are not worth risking your species. Then again apparently fossil fuel profits are so I guess by that logic it's totally worth it. Nuclear superpowers the dynamic is more complicated that's not the same because it's more of an automated process and the nuclear arsenal and MAD is designed to make your scenario impossible.

But what is the alternative? Roll over and submit? Hope that appeasement works this time around?

 

[ferrisjso]

But what is the alternative? Roll over and submit? Hope that appeasement works this time around?

I don't agree with the premise that Putin is trying to take all of Ukraine for reasons outlined in previous posts.

The alternative is a settlement where they concede territorys. That might seem foreign in 2022 but that's typically what happens when country A beats neighbouring country B in a war. Border territorys are conceded or in the case of LPR/DPR become a client state or affiliate of the winner.

 

[SandisLL]

But what is the alternative? Roll over and submit? Hope that appeasement works this time around?

Of course there are some posters supporting Kremlin.
Also ofc some just dreamers thinking: ukraine should surround, Kremlin will be friendly with west and sell cheap natural gas...Maybe they even are dreaming that they will be able to sent refugees back to ukraine.
Dreamers just are pretending that they " care about ppl ".
Nope. Threy gave f**" will be this ukr called zimbabwe or russia...
They are thinking just about their own life. Nothing more.
__
Smart politicians does know that if Russia will fold ukraine, they will be even more cocky and will bully and blackmail west ....even more than they are doing today...
+ west most likely will get damn more refugees.
+ blackmail with supplies will increase even more.
+ then they will do next steps:
Moldova. For sure.
Georgia. 0 doubts here.
Cos oil deal with Iran ( read up in oilprice.com ) Russia will benefit from land border with Iran.
So Azerbaijan and Armenia are lucrative for deNazification.

If Russia will have land border with Hungary...hell for europe will start quickly.
+ Serbia most likely will be encouraged to deNazify Kosovo.

 

[Zinger]

Every single Russian and Belarussian that is entering our country will have to go through in depth extensive background checks by our countries security agencies, to determine if their presence is a threat to our society, before deciding if they get a visa.

Before this the law applied to those, who live in Chechnya, Dagestan, and Abkhasia, now it's gonna be for absolutely everybody, even Ivan from Moscow.

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/economy/...cks-on-travelers-from-russia-belarus.a467894/

We officially declared Russia a terrorist state yesterday, so makes sense.



https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/saeima/saeima-committee-names-russia-terrorist-state.a467729/

 

[Plastikman_Eire]

I don't agree with the premise that Putin is trying to take all of Ukraine for reasons outlined in previous posts.

The alternative is a settlement where they concede territorys. That might seem foreign in 2022 but that's typically what happens when country A beats neighbouring country B in a war. Border territorys are conceded or in the case of LPR/DPR become a client state or affiliate of the winner.

But they conceded territory in 2014 and Russia came back for more? There is nothing to suggest that further concessions now would satisfy Russia.

Besides that I dont think Russia has been dominant enough during this *ahem* "special operation" to justify any concessions.

 

[Cid]

I don't want Russia to continue to fight. I also know that they don't care, and everyone knows that they're villains. But there is this notion that somehow Zelensky and the West are the good guys, despite them sacrificing Ukrainian men in a war that they can't win and that does not benefit them.

Why do you think a million odd personnel army receiving the support of almost the entire developed world can't win?

 

[Fox by the Sea]

Why do you think a million odd personnel army receiving the support of almost the entire developed world can't win?

nobody takes seriously the one million number, come on.

 

[Zinger]

nobody takes seriously the one million number, come on.

Don't forget the 500k foreign volunteer troops that are rushing to help.

Edit:

Fuck, I can't find a link where it says this. I hought I read/heard it somewhere. I guess not.

 

[Rholk]

Seems like a bit of a risk placing 4 of them together
Makes for nice footage tho
Some reports that the damaged bridge to Kherson has been struck again and is completely closed now

 

[AWilder]

The immoral thing is not fighting for their nation(though i think their nation is wrong) in Zelenskys case its losing men in the name of acheiving goals he knows cannot be acheived. Even worse he is basically trying to lobby the west to risk WW3 over reclaiming territory that his nation did everything in their power to alienate over the past decade. He will benefit politcally from losing the Russian held territorys(the Ukranian far right will likely never lose an election in our life time), he knows he will lose the Russian held territories(I can see a path to retaking Kherson) but he is pretending this isn't the case and people on both sides are needlessly dying as a result of that.

If not for Russias invasion the war would have continued to rage on in a smaller scale in LPR and DPR as well. This issue needs a resolution and trying to hold people who do not want to be there is not the answer. Attempts to keep two fundamentally opposed groups in the same country failed after a decade plus of efforts to patch it all together. Ukraine losing territory is in the best interest of both parties they both want fundamentally different things. The only way for Ukraine to keep their Russian lands was to remain neutral between the west and Ukraine and to simply de facto allow LPR/DPR to run their own affairs (this is how Moldova handled their seperatist situation and Russia has not acknowledged Transnistria as a result), if Ukraines going into the EU and possibly NATO, the east is going out of Ukraine and that's entirely reasonable.

These people fighting to hold the East want the Easts land they don't want the Easts people.

Why would greater Ukraine want a bunch of Russian insurgents and Ukrainian traitors in eastern Ukraine? The fighting in eastern Ukraine is all funded, supplied and often times manned by Russians. It's not an organically grown civic conflict.

International observers whitnessed 10s of thousands of Russian military being shipped into the region, and that's only at the places they were allowed to observe and during the relatively short time they spent observing.

 

[Fox by the Sea]

Don't forget the 500k foreign volunteer troops that are rushing to help.

Edit:

Fuck, I can't find a link where it says this. I hought I read/heard it somewhere. I guess not.

probably on twitter.
99% of all i read over there about this conflict is batshit insane fanfiction.