International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V7

[MeatheadMike]

It isnt my view its the view of many economists and banks. It is the reality

A hard pill to swallow but it blows my mind how a dislike of a country can cloud judgement so much.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.te...s-Winning-Economic-Warfare-20220603-0001.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/business...-putin-winning-the-economic-war-over-ukraine/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...limate/russia-oil-gas-record-revenue.amp.html

Well the view is simple. They are an economy with almost no debt, and tons of food, energy and crucial materials/minerals needed to build semi conductors, nukes, weaponry and heavy machinery. Plus they dont have internal disorder to the degree the US has and their allies are the largest countries in terms of raw resources, population sizes and manfacuteing output all committed to dedollarization and a revolt against the western neoliberal world order.

Their "trade surplus" (nice way of spinning it) is a result of them not being able to import anything due to sanctions.

Russia's entire economy is basically dependent on exporting fossil fuels and not much else.... it is heavily reliant on imports for machinery, semiconductors and equipment. It doesn't have businesses that innovate like the West, and it doesn't have the manufacturing of the far East.

Its not really in a good spot at all... its economy is predicted to shrink by 10% this year and its inflation is predicted to be at 16% or more. Obviously they aren't going to admit that so the only thing they can do right now is "cook the books" the best they can.

 

[SandisLL]

Putin ~ month ago admitted that inflation does exist in Russia and had promised to increase pensions by 10% to reduce inflation effect on elederly ppl.

 

[Anewt]

Their "trade surplus" (nice way of spinning it) is a result of them not being able to import anything due to sanctions.

Russia's entire economy is basically dependent on exporting fossil fuels and not much else.... it is heavily reliant on imports for machinery, semiconductors and equipment. It doesn't have businesses that innovate like the West, and it doesn't have the manufacturing of the far East.

Its not really in a good spot at all... its economy is predicted to shrink by 10% this year and its inflation is predicted to be at 16%. Obviously they aren't going to admit that so the only thing they can do right now is "cook the books".

They're making more of fossil fuels now than before the war.

You are correct that it accounts for the majority of their trade. And that's why the sanctions are stupid imo.

All the major players are still purchasing from Russia. Europen countries still buying. Multinational corporations still buying.

How ridiculous is it that shell Exxon and shit are making record profits buying from Russia and selling it on. It's a joke

 

[SandisLL]

Ohh, then maybe we should remove all sanctions?
Maybe also accept all ppl from Ukraine if they will not be willing to live under Russia's rule in Ukraine?
+ maybe we even should ...to help Russia and invade Ukraine in order to sumbit them faster?
After this gave their land to Russia and....live in hope that we will get cheap oil?

__
BTW natural gas and crude oil usage in europe is on reducing trend since 2007-2009 th...
Cos ...prices.

Only Germany had boosted natural gas usage till heavens 2010-2021 th..

 

[Anewt]

4th July
Russians paying 0.92 usd a litre
English paying 2.30$ usd per litre
Australians paying 1.44 usd per litre
American paying 1.32 usd per litre

www.globalpetrolprices.com

 

[MeatheadMike]

They're making more of fossil fuels now than before the war.

You are correct that it accounts for the majority of their trade. And that's why the sanctions are stupid imo.

All the major players are still purchasing from Russia. Europen countries still buying. Multinational corporations still buying.

How ridiculous is it that shell Exxon and shot are making record profits buying from Russia and selling it on. It's a joke

So what you are saying is the sanctions aren't stupid, just that they should be stricter.

Also all the major players are not buying Russian oil. Oil purchases from them are outright banned in US, UK, Canada and Australia. Countries in the EU are still buying from them but will cut back significantly by the end of the year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2022-03-21/

US oil companies are making record profits because high demand & low supply after production cuts during the pandemic. But production is slowly increasing.The cost of the barrel dropped back under $100 this month.

It will take time for oil production from US and OPEC to get to prepandemic levels, but when it does what will happen to Russias economy? Will selling at discount to China and India be enough to sustain them?

 

[SandisLL]

4th July
Russians paying 0.92 usd a litre
English paying 2.30$ usd per litre
Australians paying 1.44 usd per litre
American paying 1.32 usd per litre

www.globalpetrolprices.com

Then most likely you should relocate to Russia..
Why not? Cheap gasoline....

What a pitty that you will have the same prices for comps and phones like in the same U.K.
+ looks that will not get the same $$$ salary you are getting in U.K or U.S or Australia.

For a reason.

BTW in Norway gasoline always had been expensive...
due to tax man. Despite they are crude oil and natural gas exporters country...

 

[Anewt]

So what you are saying is the sanctions aren't stupid, just that they should be stricter.

Also all the major players are not buying Russian oil. Oil purchases from them are outright banned in US, UK, Canada and Australia. Countries in the EU are still buying from them but will cut back significantly by the end of the year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2022-03-21/

US oil companies are making record profits because high demand & low supply after production cuts during the pandemic. But production is slowly increasing.The cost of the barrel dropped back under $100 this month.

It will take time for oil production from US and OPEC to get to prepandemic levels, but when it does what will happen to Russias economy? Will selling at discount to China and India be enough to sustain them?

There's actually not a supply shortage at all. Their making bank on the " expected " shortage.

They literally are now selling less oil... for more profit than before. It's insane.

https://www.politico.eu/article/g7-...aine-war-to-cap-the-price-of-russian-oil/amp/

There’s also the risk of unintended consequences. Over the past four months, Western leaders have discovered that declaring Russian barrels off-limits — or just threatening to do so — has caused crude prices to skyrocket in anticipation of reduced global supply, leading to economic pain for countries respecting the ban.

Meanwhile, less-scrupulous buyers — notably India and China— have gotten the benefit of a discount on the shunned Russian barrels, while Moscow raked in record profits by selling less oil but at a higher overall price.




https://amp.9news.com.au/article/d87327ee-4ba7-4db5-a43e-753435a52961

Russia has made more money from the sale of fossil fuels since the war on Ukraine began than in peacetime, new research has found.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found Russia made more on coal, oil and gas exports in February than in January, and even more in March.

While Russia has been hit with heavy sanctions, it has still found a ready market for the fossil fuels, which account for most of its exports.

Most of those exports were sold to the EU, which bought $86 billion of oil, gas and coal in the first 100 days of the war.

China, Turkey and India were other big buyers.

The war in Ukraine has created a profitable paradox for Russia.

It has been forced to sell its oil at a discount because of sanctions - but the rise in global prices because of the Ukraine war has meant it is still making far more than it did last year.

And despite the sanctions, most Russian oil is being transported to its markets on ships owned by EU nations, plus the UK and Norway.

Major companies buying Russian fossil fuels since the war began include Exxon, Shell, Total and Repsol.

 

[SBJJ]

You only have to cast a slightly sceptical eye over articles like these to come up with gems like this:

"That’s not to say Russia’s economy isn’t feeling the ill-effects of sanctions and a growing corporate boycott. The International Monetary Fund believes the economy will slump into a deep recession this year, shrinking by as much as 8.5 per cent. Inflation is also running a two-decade high of 17.8 per cent."

If Biden were announcing an 8.5 percent slump, Americans would have assassinated him by now. If word broke of inflation at 17.8 percent, the Democrats wouldn't be in power.

It's ludicrous that anyone can read an article that spells it out like this and assume Russia is winning any kind of economic war.

Do you know how bad it is based on those two figures?

You do understand US inflation is actually 20+%

 

[ferrisjso]

So what you are saying is the sanctions aren't stupid, just that they should be stricter.

Also all the major players are not buying Russian oil. Oil purchases from them are outright banned in US, UK, Canada and Australia. Countries in the EU are still buying from them but will cut back significantly by the end of the year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2022-03-21/

US oil companies are making record profits because high demand & low supply after production cuts during the pandemic. But production is slowly increasing.The cost of the barrel dropped back under $100 this month.

It will take time for oil production from US and OPEC to get to prepandemic levels, but when it does what will happen to Russias economy? Will selling at discount to China and India be enough to sustain them?

Aka price gouging because they can get away with it and "fidicuary duty" has been subsituted for morality in the US capitalist system.

But in terms of relevant players are you saying China and even India aren't "relevant players"? What about the various wealthy southeast asian countries that haven't put on sanctions?

There was a time that being western centric was just reality that isn't really the case anymore.

 

[Anewt]

Aka price gouging because they can get away with it and "fidicuary duty" has been subsituted for morality in the US capitalist system.

But in terms of relevant players are you saying China and even India aren't "relevant players"? What about the various wealthy southeast asian countries that haven't put on sanctions?

There was a time that being western centric was just reality that isn't really the case anymore.

Nah the EU is the ones making them bank at the moment. ( and multinational corporations )

If the EU goes to 0 and the multinational corporations obey the sanctions ( unlikely ) it will cost Russia a huge chunk. China and India then could get even more bargains.

But it does explain to me why nobody tried to hook India up with new deals for supply. Why bother when you can make drastically more money selling to the " west ". ( due to price gouging. they already doing it.)

 

[Videer]

Sure I see those 4 tanks disabled right there but I also see just enough space for us to squeeze through, what could possibly go wrong?



Another ammo depot suffering from premature detonation, pretty far from frontlines east of Donetsk.

 

[PEB]

You do understand US inflation is actually 20+%

Where is this mysterious 20 percent jump in inflation? I just bought over 10,0oo dollars of lumber for a building project and I paid less then for a garage repair with less lumber for 1/2 plywood and 3/4 inch ply as well as nails, screws and equipment. My price for 1/2 ply last year was almost 40 percent more then I paid over the last 4 months. From 73 dollars per panel vs this year 48 dollars per panel seen it as low as 38 dollars for pine. Yes covered in this majority of these increases is for food, fuel and fashion the 3 F's. I see videos from Russia with empty shopping mails, streets empty without people and cars as almost like they don't have the money they had in the past.

 

[lsa]

Satellite images obtained by Yle show that a large part of Russia's military equipment at the military base in Alakurtti has disappeared. According to military expert Marko Eklund, the amount lost corresponds to a battalion battle group.

Since mid-May, more than a hundred vehicles have disappeared from Alakurtti's military base. Among the missing vehicles are dozens of anti-tank vehicles. At the same time, at least a third, perhaps even half of the base's 2,000 soldiers have been evacuated.

- It is very likely that they were put on a train to Ukraine, says major in the reserve Marko Eklund.

Eklund has been following Russia's armed forces for over 20 years. He analyses the satellite images at the request of Yle.

According to Eklund, the changes in Alakurtti are a sign that Russia needs new troops to the front. The country has not announced the transfers to the public.

https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10018348

 

[lsa]

 

[PEB]

Satellite images obtained by Yle show that a large part of Russia's military equipment at the military base in Alakurtti has disappeared. According to military expert Marko Eklund, the amount lost corresponds to a battalion battle group.

Since mid-May, more than a hundred vehicles have disappeared from Alakurtti's military base. Among the missing vehicles are dozens of anti-tank vehicles. At the same time, at least a third, perhaps even half of the base's 2,000 soldiers have been evacuated.

- It is very likely that they were put on a train to Ukraine, says major in the reserve Marko Eklund.

Eklund has been following Russia's armed forces for over 20 years. He analyses the satellite images at the request of Yle.

According to Eklund, the changes in Alakurtti are a sign that Russia needs new troops to the front. The country has not announced the transfers to the public.

https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10018348

This explains the recent pullback by Russia likely a sign they have to tap into newer equipment and supplies. Ukrainians have been with the new hardware to inflict damage to weapons stored in warehouses over the years.

 

[Snowblindlove]

Just literally, even in basic terms, explain how Russia could possess more economic might than USA and Europe?

Then explain how anything can be going well, when Russia lost a massive amount of the global market for oil and gas overnight, AND that it's well-documented that Russia is forced to sell cheaper than ever before?

Just do the basic math for a minute... LOSS of market share... enforced LOWER price... Profits?

Be real about this.

Be real about the Ruble, which isn't being traded normally, as being strong, but so strong that it's a threat to the Russian economy?

Be real.

Is Russia REALLY winning an economic war?

It isnt about having a higher GDP or financial assets. It is about them holding more valuable resources and materials needed for survival relative to the US. A lot of US economy fluff is financial and sales services. Funny money in the system. It isnt tangible or necessary for survival

I am aware this idea Russia will outlast the US angers you but its true

 

[Snowblindlove]

Their "trade surplus" (nice way of spinning it) is a result of them not being able to import anything due to sanctions.

Russia's entire economy is basically dependent on exporting fossil fuels and not much else.... it is heavily reliant on imports for machinery, semiconductors and equipment. It doesn't have businesses that innovate like the West, and it doesn't have the manufacturing of the far East.

Its not really in a good spot at all... its economy is predicted to shrink by 10% this year and its inflation is predicted to be at 16% or more. Obviously they aren't going to admit that so the only thing they can do right now is "cook the books" the best they can.

Okay you can believe that but its not true. Your assessment is so flawed and it is the United States that will be worse off and not even existing as a United Country sooner than Russia

 

[PEB]

The fact that Ukraine and Turkey are getting along likely freaking out Russia because Turkey has Russian pipelines or something?

"KYIV, Ukraine—Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday that Moscow is ready to negotiate with Ukraine and Turkey about grain exports but it is unclear when such talks might take place."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia...h-ukraine-turkey-on-grain-exports-11657278324

 

[PEB]