International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V7

[Tabarnakos]

"Would you rather be servant of heaven or ruler of hell?"

Putin seems to have made his choice when he made a clear turn away from the West after flirting with them when he first took power and instead decided being the King of the Despots was better than being maybe top 5 in an embraced West.

I think had Putin embraced the West and moved Russia towards and into Nato, Russia would have begun a path of becoming the biggest European power.

A highly motivated population and work force, and being a Western and Euro bridge to Asia and an Asian Bridge to Europe puts Russia in an ideal position for decades of growth. I think they could have become a global power in Tech and provided for some time, a bit of a hedge to China become the dominant power in that region.

Instead Putin chose a greatly diminished Russia, who punched well below its weight in GDP and its ability to project power. But he is (was) King and for him, that became enough.

Xi in China is taking the other path. All in on building China into the sole world power which means he cannot loot the country into a down turn. It will be interesting when he dies, to see if he can ensure continuity of that vision because a greedy Putin type could easily spiral it down, just like Russia just by putting looting first.

Good post. I believe more or the same too

I see Russia as wasted potential. They are still a decent country in many fields but they could be much more if they had a different approach and mindset

 

[PEB]

 

[Anewt]

These were called human shields when brown people used this tactic.

A human shield is a non-combatant (or a group of non-combatants) who either volunteers or is forced to shield a legitimate military target in order to deter the enemy from attacking it.[1] The use of human shields as a resistance measure was popularized by Mahatma Gandhi as a weapon of peace. On the other hand, the weaponization of civilians has also developed as a tactic by some non-state actors like ISIS.[2]

( wiki )

So seems it's irrelevant whether it's by force or not. But just like everything about this war it's not so black and white.. more the shade of grey again.

The civilians are likely to have sheltered there In the earlier stages as it was safer. Nothing to do with volunteering. Just ended up choosing the safety of the tunnels. Can't blame em. so I don't consider that particularly " human shield " more a outcome that occured from both ( military and civilians ) hiding from bombs.

But now Mauripol has no resistance remaining ( bar in steelworks ) those civilians have no reason to remain there, in the sense of sheltering from bombings. But once again.. I can't particularly blame anyone from still wishing to hide from Russians.. pretty logical thinking so.. grey area again.

But war crimes have been committed by both sides... nothing really new there. Every war since the updated Geneva convention probably has war crimes from both sides.

 

[Strychnine]

Interesting take...

 

[DoomPatrol]

"Would you rather be servant of heaven or ruler of hell?"

Putin seems to have made his choice when he made a clear turn away from the West after flirting with them when he first took power and instead decided being the King of the Despots was better than being maybe top 5 in an embraced West.

I think had Putin embraced the West and moved Russia towards and into Nato, Russia would have begun a path of becoming the biggest European power.

A highly motivated population and work force, and being a Western and Euro bridge to Asia and an Asian Bridge to Europe puts Russia in an ideal position for decades of growth. I think they could have become a global power in Tech and provided for some time, a bit of a hedge to China become the dominant power in that region.

Instead Putin chose a greatly diminished Russia, who punched well below its weight in GDP and its ability to project power. But he is (was) King and for him, that became enough.

Xi in China is taking the other path. All in on building China into the sole world power which means he cannot loot the country into a down turn. It will be interesting when he dies, to see if he can ensure continuity of that vision because a greedy Putin type could easily spiral it down, just like Russia just by putting looting first.

The problem is his style of money making doesn't work well with democracy and justice.

Russia should and could be a dominant global power in Europe. Their people just need to get rid of these shitbags who want to fight all of Europe for more stuff.

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

The problem is his style of money making doesn't work well with democracy and justice.

Russia should and could be a dominant global power in Europe. Their people just need to get rid of these shitbags who want to fight all of Europe for more stuff.

It is impossible because 2 political parties are with dudes even more crazy than Putin.

Ofc, when west and east flirted with them 1993-2008 they really had 15 years...

Actually they started to show their reality earlier than in 2008 th.

Good lesson get one oil refinery in europe.
Russian oligarchs offered to buy this, however owners sold refinery to Western oriented holding cos they offered more $.
Vuala, soon appeared that pipeline supplying refinery with crude oil " does have technical problems ".
New owners were able to replace supplies they didn't had get from previous crude oil seller.
Then appeared local " green activists " protesting against pollution ( interestingly earlier they didn't had any interest about this oil refinery ).

Ofc they might had been turned into something like modern Japan or Germany. Why not.
If the same Poland was not in better situation than the same Belarus or Ukraine in 1992 th. Now they have higher GDP per capita than Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
Higher GDP nom than Ukraine and Belarus together had in 2019 th ....

A lot of examples how countries developed well despite worse economical start position than Russia had in 1993 th....
Long list with countries...

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[PEB]

Apparently the removal of Ukrainian soldiers who where moved to Russia leaves many worried that Russia could use them as pawns in pressing for Ukraine to give up much more then they really don't want to that included much of the water access making the Country land locked and making their grain nearly impossible to ship. Ukraine wants to do a prisoner swap it does not seem like that will happen anytime soon but seems like Putin does not really value his soldiers as much as he values the political gain from holding 200 or so Ukrainian soldiers.

 

[MIKOM]

NATO chief hails ‘historic moment’ as Finland, Sweden apply
By LORNE COOK | MAY 18, 2022

Finland's Ambassador to NATO Klaus Korhonen, left, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Sweden's Ambassador to NATO Axel Wernhoff attend a ceremony to mark Sweden's and Finland's application for membership in Brussels, Belgium, Wednesday May 18, 2022.

BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that the military alliance stands ready to seize a historic moment and move quickly on allowing Finland and Sweden to join its ranks, after the two countries submitted their membership requests.

The official applications, handed over by Finland and Sweden’s ambassadors to NATO, set a security clock ticking. Russia, whose war on Ukraine spurred them to join the military organization, has warned that it wouldn’t welcome such a move, and could respond.

“I warmly welcome the requests by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. You are our closest partners,“ Stoltenberg said. “All allies agree on the importance of NATO enlargement. We all agree that we must stand together, and we all agree that this is an historic moment which we must seize.”

“This is a good day at a critical moment for our security,” a beaming Stoltenberg said, as he stood alongside the two envoys, with NATO, Finnish and Swedish flags at their backs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that the alliance stop expanding toward Russia’s borders, and several NATO allies, led by the United States and Britain, have signaled that they stand ready to provide security support to Finland and Sweden should he try to provoke or destabilize them during the time it takes to become full members.

The countries will only benefit from NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee — the part of the alliance’s founding treaty that pledges that any attack on one member would be considered an attack of them all — once the membership ratification process is concluded, probably in a few months.

For now though, the application must now be weighed by the 30 member countries. That process is expected to take about two weeks, although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed reservations about Finland and Sweden joining.

If his objections are overcome, and accession talks go as well as expected, the two could become members within a few months. The process usually takes eight to 12 months, but NATO wants to move quickly given the threat from Russia hanging over the Nordic countries’ heads.

Canada, for example, says that it expects to ratify their accession protocol in just a few days — while in the Baltic region, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeted: “I encourage a rapid accession process. We in Estonia will do our part fast.”

Stoltenberg said that NATO allies “are determined to work through all issues and reach rapid conclusions.”

The fact that the Nordic partners applied together means they won’t be losing time by having to ratify each other’s membership application.

“That Sweden and Finland go hand in hand is a strength. Now the process of joining the talks continues,” Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde told the Swedish news agency TT.

Public opinion in Finland and Sweden has shifted massively in favor of membership since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Finland and Sweden cooperate closely with NATO. They have functioning democracies, well-funded armed forces and contribute to the alliance’s military operations and air policing. Any obstacles they face will merely be of a technical, or possibly political nature.

NATO’s membership process is not formalized, and the steps can vary. But first their requests to join will be examined in a sitting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) of the 30 member countries, probably at ambassadorial level.

The NAC will decide whether to move toward membership and what steps must be taken to achieve it. This mostly depends on how well aligned the candidate countries are with NATO political, military and legal standards, and whether they contribute to security in the North Atlantic area. This should pose no substantial problem for Finland and Sweden.

Moving forward, during accession talks that could be concluded in just one day once the terms of those negotiations are set, the two will be asked to commit to uphold Article 5 and to meet spending obligations concerning the NATO in-house budget, which runs to around $2.5 billion dollars, split proportionally among what would be 32 member countries.

Finland and Sweden would also be made aware of their role in NATO defense planning, and of any other legal or security obligations they might have, like the vetting of personnel and handling of classified information.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...yyip-erdogan-bb85591c4cf0335cc053faccce26df32

Hey @Nameless King ...........
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[curryjunkie]

Interesting take...

looks like the military is embarresed that they look so poor on the battle field, regardless of whether intelligence reports were wrong or not, it doesnt excuse their woeful performance so far. i cant see how ramping up to a full invasion is going to go any better, ukraine has had time to arm up and is supplied with superior weapons now. i can certainly see putin going if he shows any form of weakness to the other power factions, but who would replace him is anyones guess, a military coup would not solve russias problems.

 

[SandisLL]

@PEB, as excepted they were used as ants in big game.
Ukraine allowed attacking forces too easy to reach Mariupol and this alone is suspicious.
More than this: casual ant in west might buy Kremlins propaganda, like about Azov ( absolute bullshit, they are not more nazis than russians in ОМОН, Wagner etc ), not alone that they had used as ants also casual marines and even local policemans etc not enlisted in " bad " Azov ).

While for Mr Zelenski best interest like for Mr Putin was do all the best to deliver natural gas at least till Hungary.

While Zelensky is accusing, begging and insisting, Putin threats with nukes, to stop commodities deliveries etc and accusing EU as rusofoby evil etc...

Ukrainian company owned by rich oligarchs didn't had paid for services to one company in EU and is asking for NEXT!

Found santa clauses and idiots to milk in xx ways?
+ nice talking?

Yeah and maybe we soon will have demonstrations with ukr refugees demanding from us everything.

 

[Zinger]

 

[Zinger]

Does this slow down their attempts to join NATO?

 

[AWilder]

What were they saying?

 

[Zinger]

What were they saying?

Guy in the car: "What's going on, old man?"

Drunk Old man: For Russia!

Guy in the car: Why?

Drunk Old Man : For Donbass! For the children! 8 years!

Guy in the car: We are in Riga now.

Drunk Old man gets attacked, gets back up, chases the guy : "Give me back the flag, you bitch!"

Meanwhile in the background there is a dude calling the cops and complaining about the russian dude causing a disturbance.

Guy in the car laughs and says that old man already got punished.

 

[PEB]

What were they saying?

EDIT ok problem solved. lol

 

[PEB]

Does this slow down their attempts to join NATO?

Yes potentially but I think Turkey doing this because of their sorta relationship with Russia.

 

[MIKOM]

Yes potentially but I think Turkey doing this because of their sorta relationship with Russia.

Turkey is involved in negotiations to convince Congress to sell F-16s to Turkey. This is a bargaining chip.

Having been dropped from the F-35 advanced fighter jet development program after buying a Russian air defense system, Turkey has been pressing the U.S. to sell it new F-16 fighters or at the very least refurbish its existing fleet. Discussions on both issues are taking place in Washington this week and some officials believe that while they are unrelated to the NATO enlargement question, resolutions to either could help persuade Erdogan to drop his objections.
https://www.middletownpress.com/new...pend-NATO-expansion-US-officials-17180556.php

 

[Vergilius]

Turkey is involved in negotiations to convince Congress to sell F-16s to Turkey. This is a bargaining chip.

Having been dropped from the F-35 advanced fighter jet development program after buying a Russian air defense system, Turkey has been pressing the U.S. to sell it new F-16 fighters or at the very least refurbish its existing fleet. Discussions on both issues are taking place in Washington this week and some officials believe that while they are unrelated to the NATO enlargement question, resolutions to either could help persuade Erdogan to drop his objections.
https://www.middletownpress.com/new...pend-NATO-expansion-US-officials-17180556.php

The end result will likely be that Turkey receives some kind of "bribe" and then abstains from voting, allowing Finland and Sweden in without losing face.

...but it isn't ideal that a member of Nato uses a situation like this to blackmail other members of the alliance. If more countries did that, NATO would become dysfunctional.