Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Videer]

Czech 122mm RM-70 MRLS spotted in the wild.

 

[TheGreatA]

Yup diplomacy is over

I expect worst case scenario is small border conflict to block nato application, full assault not possible without mobilization, heavy cyber warfare incoming though.

Then again i said rus wont invade ukr but here we are so wtf do i know lol.

One.thing that worries me and border guys actually is that russia might try to pull what belarus did to poland and use refugees as weapon and flood us with them aka hyprid warfare.

There is zero readiness for that stuff here

I was 50-50 on the invasion. I did think that a new type of lunacy had formed within the government due to decades of corruption, misinformation, propaganda, which they eventually began to believe themselves. But I figured that they wouldn't go past securing the Eastern regions of Ukraine, that were effectively already under Russian/separatist control.

Refugee bombing will definitely be a thing going forward, every year, it might begin immediately. But all of that should've been taken into account by a pragmatic government, which we probably don't possess right now. Russia's army of hackers and other types of criminals will definitely be directed against Finland, but again, that probably goes without saying.

The gloves will be off. And NATO won't be of any help when it comes to that type of stuff. We can no longer afford to elect hicks who don't know what they're doing, we need hard-liners that are ready to meet the new challenges. Feminist governments, left-wing governments, have to be a thing of the past, they will not be capable of operating in the new environment.

 

[Cole train]

I was 50-50 on the invasion. I did think that a new type of lunacy had formed within the government due to decades of corruption, misinformation, propaganda, which they eventually began to believe themselves. But I figured that they wouldn't go past securing the Eastern regions of Ukraine, that were effectively already under Russian/separatist control.

Refugee bombing will definitely be a thing going forward, every year, it might begin immediately. But all of that should've been taken into account by a pragmatic government, which we probably don't possess right now. Russia's army of hackers and other types of criminals will definitely be directed against Finland, but again, that probably goes without saying.

The gloves will be off. And NATO won't be of any help when it comes to that type of stuff. We can no longer afford to elect hicks who don't know what they're doing, we need hard-liners that are ready to meet the new challenges.

Yea good luck with that

Guys at top straight up said we cant do anything about refugee bombing/hyprid stuff because eu laws and humanitarian stuff bla bla, border guys actually sent request to build a fence

Fun times ahead

 

[TheGreatA]

Yea good luck with that

Guys at top straight up said we cant do anything about refugee bombing/hyprid stuff because eu laws and humanitarian stuff bla bla, border guys actually sent request to build a fence

Fun times ahead

That's because we have a left-wing feminist government right now. But if a right-wing nationalist government is elected, I think they'll be less likely to give a crap about any such agreements.

 

[SandisLL]

Russia's best hackers are able to create antivirus hole called Kashpirovski ( Kaspersky ) nightmare software.

Ofc someone capable they might hire...

While in old days they had IRL excellent programmers.
Since 1992 th things get worse.
Kleptocrats now called business ppl wondered why some ant might dream not just to live from salary till salary...
Till level that they banned Linked In, most likely cos assumed that then workers will not get job offers from. western customers and will smoothly continue work for peanuts....
Didn't happened.

 

[Rod1]

Appeasement? We've been soft walking Ukraine into NATO since '08

NATO isn't just the USA, Bush floated the idea of having Ukraine in NATO but got blocked by France and Germany.

NATO wasn't even in Ukraine's mind until Russia invaded un 2014.

Then we helped insure Ukrainians picked the "right" leader after the '14 revolution and then further aligned NATO with Ukraine in 2021.

Yeah, god forbid Ukrainians decide to pick a leader that wants to turn Ukraine into an European developed nation instead of a backwater, underveloped satrapy of the Russian empire with the GDP per capita of Bolivia.

That's quite the mollification on our part. Thanks for pointing that out for me.

Nah, we just have 2 different set of moral values its ok to disagree.

 

[shinkyoku]

The Russian military shot two civilians in the back and it was caught on camera. Before the execution, the occupiers searched the Ukrainians and made sure that they were unarmed citizens. This happened on March 16 in the Kyiv region. : ukraina (reddit.com)

 

[Rod1]

Putin is clever but I think he's really overstretched himself and misjudged the reaction of the rest of the world badly. He's in damage limitation mode now. I'd be very surprised if he can come up with a crafty get out. But as you say, we will shall see.

Putin ate his own propaganda, he should had watched Scarface and learn the important lesson "Don't get hooked on your own supply".

He believed all the BS he peddled about the West being too divided and weak and that the Russian war machine was unstoppable.

 

[Rholk]

 

[Denter]

NATO isn't just the USA, Bush floated the idea of having Ukraine in NATO but got blocked by France and Germany.

NATO wasn't even in Ukraine's mind until Russia invaded un 2014.



Yeah, god forbid Ukrainians decide to pick a leader that wants to turn Ukraine into an European developed nation instead of a backwater, underveloped satrapy of the Russian empire with the GDP per capita of Bolivia.



Nah, we just have 2 different set of moral values its ok to disagree.

Ukraine has half the GDP of Russia per capita. Corruption levels at least as bad as Russia, probably worse. EU membership was never a realistic option for at least many decades.

EDIT: If I recall the main selling point of the Russian economic deal in 2013 was that it would keep gas prices low for Ukrainian consumers and didn't require politically difficult austerity. Somehow that got blown up into a huge thing. Multiculturalism definitely was not the Ukraine's strength.

 

[Rod1]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025

Look at these disgusting cunts.

Hang them.

They are most likely dead at this point of the conflict.

 

[Rod1]

I think the major change will be Russia moving its nuclear potential close to the border, along with having a constant military presence around the region. There will obviously be annual military exercises and threats/intimidation by amassing troops/violating borders to a much greater extent that there have ever been.

Outright invasion seems highly unlikely considering that they have their hands full in Ukraine, but there will never be any sort of cordial diplomatic or trade relations between Finland or Russia ever again. That part of our history, where we've served as sort of a mediator between the West and the East, is effectively over. It will just be clear hostility between the two, from this day, to the end of days. It will also reflect on how Russians will view Finnish people, and vice versa, no longer as neutral participants, but as clear enemies.

There is hoping that Russia will eventually democratize, i mean Germans and Japanese went from imperial bastards to democracies in the span of a few decades, but then again that required a lot of "reeducation" to achieve.

 

[Rod1]

Ukraine has half the GDP of Russia per capita. Corruption levels at least as bad as Russia, probably worse. EU membership was never a realistic option for at least many decades.

Yeah, that's the point, Ukraine wants to move forward, Russia doesn't likes that.

EDIT: If I recall the main selling point of the Russian economic deal in 2013 was that it would keep gas prices low for Ukrainian consumers and didn't require politically difficult austerity. Somehow that got blown up into a huge thing. Multiculturalism definitely was not the Ukraine's strength.

With the little, teeny, weeny detail that it would make Ukraine a Russian colony.

The people wanted integration with the EU, they voted for that, the parliament demanded it and the satrap Yanukovych answered with lethal force, that's why he was ousted.

 

[San Marino]

I ask again, with what? Oh wait.

If you have to ask, you are entirely too stupid. Ask your mom for help.

Russia cannot successfully interdict Ukrainian supply routes 100km over their border why would they be able to manage than across the entire country?

Not the entire country. Russians have not hit the Ukrainian rail system up to now because they were planning to use it. They have now given up on that idea and will begin to blow rail lines leading to the Eastern Ukraine front. There are only 3 major lines leading to Eastern Ukraine. You don't move a M777 howitzer piece around like you do a FGM-148 Javelin.

 

[SandisLL]

.

 

[Rholk]

If you have to ask, you are entirely too stupid. Ask your mom for help.

Not the entire country. Russians have not hit the Ukrainian rail system up to now because they were planning to use it. They have now given up on that idea and will begin to blow rail lines leading to the Eastern Ukraine front. There are only 3 major lines leading to Eastern Ukraine. You don't move a M777 howitzer piece around like you do a FGM-148 Javelin.

Yeah the russian grand strategy will show any moment now

 

[Rational Poster]

I expect in the next 24-48 hours Ukr forces in Kharkiv will begin to directly pressure Russia's main supply route into the country with guided rockets and artillery putting the entire invasion in jeopardy. The route from Belgorod is their main supply route into the occupied areas.

 

[San Marino]

Yeah the russian grand strategy will show any moment now.

Yeah, blowing up rail lines is very complex stuff. It takes a rocket scientist and years of planning.

 

[Denter]

Yeah, that's the point, Ukraine wants to move forward, Russia doesn't likes that.



With the little, teeny, weeny detail that it would make Ukraine a Russian colony.

The people wanted integration with the EU, they voted for that, the parliament demanded it and the satrap Yanukovych answered with lethal force, that's why he was ousted.

I think its easier to understand without a moralistic spin. Its great power politics, really. Ukraine was a vassal of one power, and got moved into the orbit of another power, rightly or wrongly. Thus the conflict. Everything else is justification by either Russo-sphere or the Westerners.

Its certainly not the case that Ukraine is some sort of ideal polity, or even a good place to live. I saw one news story describe them as a "vibrant, multicultural democracy" and I thought "I think having that other culture was part of the problem." lol. But even if there wasn't a Russophilic population, Russia would have found some other way to stir up trouble.

 

[Rholk]

Yeah, blowing up rail lines is very complex stuff. It takes a rocket scientist and years of planning.

Well it has taken the russian rocket scientists 3 months now.
These guys have gotten to a point where they are just winging it