Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[idrankyourbeer]

Bill Maher says Zelensky "Proves" woman want manly men the most.

 

[cabal]

Donbas becomes independent of Ukraine. Putin gets what he wanted. Ukraine gets a lot more military equipment and cash. Nato buys more weapons from USA. USA makes bank

Putin claims victory in getting donbas.. Ukraine claims victory in holdingUkraine. Nato says it justifys their existence. Biden takes credit for no ww3.

Everyone wins bar the regular people

My post 2 weeks ago.. I still lean that way.. could be completely wrong... shrug

donbas " independent " and Crimea Russian.

Could be a decent outcome but I doubt they will allow it.

 

[Captain Herb]

It is really not a draw down if you make the math. They have approx. taken 30.7% of Ukraine and they wanna ethablish ceasefire then go again in couple of years from now but either way they will be taking 30.7% of Ukraine if you count what they hold today. The devil is in the detail.

I had time on my hands so I did the calculations.

They currently hold approx. 185455 km2 (Including all of donbass) out of 603628 km2 that translates into 30.7% to be precise.

Regions where Russia holds fully or intends to hold fully: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea,

Regions where Russia holds partially: 40% of Kyiv Oblast, 50% of Chernihiv, 80% of Sumy Oblast and 20% of Kharkiv Oblast including roughly 5 % of Mykolaiv Oblast..

The question people should be asking is will russia exit from this territories? the answer is no and especially for the 5 fully occupied main while they won't exit the others unless they swap these regions with other regions. I could see them wanting to hold on the part they hold in Kyiv oblast because of Chernobyl nuclear power plant and also they won't be wanting to exchange Kharkiv at all. I think they could swap Chernihiv, Sumy regions with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mykolaiv whereas I could see them wanting to exchange the parts they hold of Kyiv oblast with Kharkiv oblast even giving up on Chernobyl.

They initially also wanted Odessa but they do realize that taking Odessa will starve the Ukrainians of a port on the Black sea which would be unfair hence why I believe they will let Odessa stay with Ukraine.

Hence I could fence an end game of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv all going to Russia

Something like this minus Odessa (Which is the region bordering Moldova)

Lol, no. Russia isn't getting out of this with any territory. They will get some security assurances from NATO and some easing of sanctions. This is going to end in almost complete failure for Putin, looking objectively at it.

 

[Rational Poster]

The western media is saying Russia has effectively lost the war and have to switch strategies out of desperation to only take the Donbas region. Is anyone buying this narrative? I don't believe Russia ever said their intention was to take over all of Ukraine or did I miss that part? Or is our media lying as usual?

Putin said it himself when he declared his invasion to the world.

His intent was to reverse the wrongs of Lenin who allowed Ukraine to remain autonomous and have the right to secede in the Soviet constitution.

 

[mkess101]

The western media is saying Russia has effectively lost the war and have to switch strategies out of desperation to only take the Donbas region. Is anyone buying this narrative? I don't believe Russia ever said their intention was to take over all of Ukraine or did I miss that part? Or is our media lying as usual?

I think it's more that we're seeing very well educated military analysts all scratching their heads and wondering what the hell Russia is doing. Leaving a massive column of armor fully exposed on a march to Kyiv as...a distraction? According to the generals I've seen giving analysis, there are WAY easier ways to do that which result in far less risk and loss. The narrative of "Russia has lost" would be overblown except I really haven't heard that said anywhere. Switching goals and strategies (if that's what Russia is doing) doesn't necessarily mean "losing", when you haven't made fully clear your goals to begin with.

Like @MeatheadMike said, Putin can completely change goals and focus on Donbas and if that works, he'll absolutely claim the entire thing was a massive success. Whether that was his goal at the outset or not.

 

[mkess101]

Lol, no. Russia isn't getting out of this with any territory. They will get some security assurances from NATO and some easing of sanctions. This is going to end in almost complete failure for Putin, looking objectively at it.

They'll keep Crimea though imo, and Putin will sell that he was "securing Crimea officially and permanently" or something like that. They already had it, but that's how he'll sell it.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

might want to put on your tin foil hats for this one

Pardoned Trump Asslicker and self-proclaimed "Not A Putin Apologist", but really just another Putin cheerleader, Michael Flynn, claims Putin’s attack on Ukraine disrupts the New World Order pushed by Bill Gates, Klaus Schwab and an Israeli professor Dr Hariri. Flynn claims the NWO leaves out God and Soul.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politi...n-putin-bill-gates-conspiracy-theory-1320714/

 

[MeatheadMike]

The distance Ukraine pushed out / were willing to defend with force I think shocked the shite out of Russia. Hence I don't think it went to plan at all. If they had attempted to dig in ( as they are now I believe from some reports) I think Ukraine would have tried to create a corridor for their forces in the east.

I think Russian troops in the east have met up and that's no longer a big concern to them.

Plenty of analysts stated there wasn't enough troops for Russia to completely encircle Kiev. But it's been quite a few weeks now and by all accounts Ukraine is becoming far more aggressive in attempting to encircle the Russians.

Without engaging I think they would have pushed out far quicker.

But that's just my opinion

Possible but I still don’t buy it. Russia has a far larger military, so why do they even need to engage trickery. If their goal was just liberating Dombass like Putin said, why not concentrate all their forces there (like 2014 with Crimea)

Would have a much greater chance of success since it’s a much simpler objective than invading all of Ukraine on so many different fronts. Especially since many people in Donbass are supposedly pro-Russian anyway.

 

[Captain Herb]

They'll keep Crimea though imo, and Putin will sell that he was "securing Crimea officially and permanently" or something like that. They already had it, but that's how he'll sell it.

Right, meant new territory. With the backing Zelenskyy is getting, and the way the war is going, he won't agree to the Donbas, or whatever else Putin wants geographically. Crimea seems like a fait accompli.

 

[Captain Herb]

Russia is not deterred by sanctions hence they will seize all of that but then again as someone said on the above Russia is sending out mixed statements example they said just 3 days ago that they will fight anyone who enters Ukraine and this was directed at Poland. But what the Russian want it is easy to understand and imho I thing they will go for Odessa and I have held the opinion from the get go that the Kiev attack was a bait to lock their forces into the capital region.

Here is how I see things unfolding. Russia will not back down from here and the sanctions will multiple in few months post the Ukraine war Russia will again repeat same trick this time on Finland to negotiate lifting of all sanctions it will succeed.

Russia is not deterred by sanctions by the way. The next attack from Russia will not be on Europe but surprisingly the US itself. Yes this may sound weird or rather strange but Russia knows it can't have it's way as long as the Americans are around and the same goes to China, North Korea etc etc. Like Brutus they will attempt to come for the US directly by attempting a sucker punch and attacking the US one morning unexpectingly but they won't just attack the US mainland out of the blue without doing atleast a decade of preparations combined by Russia, China and North Korea. This will be something similar to like Brutus and Gais stabbing Ceasar unexpectingly.

The reason the preparation will take so long is because they fear miscalculations occuring along the way sucker punching the Americans could go wildly wrong if not over-prepared every single sequence again and again into muscle memory. They know eliminating The US nobody will come to the aid of the Americans. They will try to EMP strike the US first on one innocent morning where all hostilities are not present in that year.... In the early hours of the morning.

Hence the US will boost it's armed forces along the NATO eastern flank and make coalitions and including counter plans and preparations meaning they have to draw first blood before they are struck out of the blue one morning and if that was to happen it is over because minutes later post an EMP all the American cities and populations centers could be hit simultaneously hence you have to pay close attention and the US will definitely want to draw first blood not allowing itself to get sucker punched hence the likely prediction here is intense intelligence gathering by the US constantly.

Not allowing this axis to carry out an outlandish sucker punch that could potentially change the course of history and the only reason this axis is forming is to bring the US down figuratively.

The counter from the US is basically to draw first blood and sucker punch the brain behind this operation which is without a doubt Russia because China and North Korea are timid unlike the Russians who could make this a reality and talk them into it. If the Brain is knocked out of the way the two others will be hesitant and just watch..

This is all complete absurdity, it makes not one bit of sense.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

Joe Biden meeting with some troops in Poland

Breaking on Tucker Carlson tonight;

“Biden eating pizza while Europe burns, showing the world what a weak leader he is. Why isn’t he leading his men like Vladimir Putin?”

 

[b34stmode]

That was the stated plan. That never changed imo. ( lots of people will disagree with my assessment though ) But it's a good way for Ukraine and nato to " win " and declare victory. Just like everyone is going to.

it wasn’t the stated plan. The stated plan was to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine entirely, AND liberate Donbass region. They have failed miserably on the first two points.

You know they dropped HUNDREDS if not THOUSANDS of paratroopers behind enemy lines in Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mauripol right? They essentially sent these men straight to their deaths, there is NO EXCUSE for it other than they seriously thought they would be welcomed and Zelensky would immediately surrender or be killed.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

 

[SandisLL]

All these reasons why Russia had attacked Ukraine looks that are propaganda tales for random casuals and russians ofc too.
1 st fake reason: EU.
Not likely they had been in EU even after 8 years.
Putin and Co does knows this.
2 nd fake reason: NATO.
A) not likely NATO even liked to see Ukraine as member and for a reason: deep corruprion culture, nepotism as normal part of culture per se, too much investments needed, etc and etc.
B) economically unstable country during last 32 years in row like Russia.
C) border problems: in order to be real candidate for NATO member country should have 0 border disputes!

Putin is not so dumb not to know this.
With situation in 2022 January. was enough not to see Ukraine nor in NATO nor in EU.


Real reson I think was cos in Ukraine oligarchs loyal to Kremlin had lost impact.
N.B more than this: Ukraine exactly recently had attempted to reduce corruption and money laundering!
To implement western Anti Money Laundering measures like EU is doing since 2001 th.
To fight with tax evasion too.

Now easy solution:
1 express ultimatums, If government had agreed they had lost next elections.
If no, then take Kiev and install puppet,...,

Add here Kremlin's dreams to re eastblish Warahaw block. Not only just empire.

 

[Captain Herb]

I know about these submarines and the second strike policy but here is the thing no country puts all of it's nuclear weapons into the ocean but only few perhaps fewer then 30-40 at times meaning if you get sucker punched it will hurt massively and existential and yes the second strike policy will do damage but not nearly able to fuck up someone like the one who pulls the trigger first.

Do the math eating 2000 warheads within an hour vs eating 50 warheads in return from the second strike capability? Which one do you wanna be? the guy being GnP 'ed or the one landing few from below..

It is not remotely the same thing...

China, Russia and North Korea could completely destroy the US within hours the capability is there and combined they are more lethal

Lol, the MAD retaliatory strike does not happen after the first strike detonates. It happens a few minutes after launch, when it is clear we are under nuclear attack. The first and second strike will pass each other in the air. Everyone will be obliterated. You cannot win a full-scale nuclear war. There are automatic failsafe protocols to insure this will happen.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

it wasn’t the stated plan. The stated plan was to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine entirely, AND liberate Donbass region. They have failed miserably on the first two points.

You know they dropped HUNDREDS if not THOUSANDS of paratroopers behind enemy lines in Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mauripol right? They essentially sent these men straight to their deaths, there is NO EXCUSE for it other than they seriously thought they would be welcomed and Zelensky would immediately surrender or be killed.

it really seems like nothing has gone to plan for them. kinda makes you wonder if they even had a plan? i guess they figured that zalensky would just surrender ukraine without a bullet fired, and they would lay down the red carpet for the russians. it almost seems as if they didnt really have a Plan B. i dont think they expected this kind of resistance.

 

[Anewt]

Possible but I still don’t buy it. Russia has a far larger military, so why do they even need to engage trickery. If their goal was just liberating Dombass like Putin said, why not concentrate all their forces there (like 2014 with Crimea)

Would have a much greater chance of success since it’s a much simpler objective than invading all of Ukraine on so many different fronts. Especially since many people in Donbass are supposedly pro-Russian anyway.

Because there is a established military line with veterans and defences ( including bunkers and trenches) that travels along the separatist line.

Article from December 2021


If Russia openly invades Ukraine in coming weeks or months—as many observers fear is increasingly likely—Russian troops rolling into eastern Ukraine would collide with fortifications that Ukrainian troops have spent years building.

The Ukrainians and separatists each dug trenches—hundreds of miles of them, carving an arc across southeastern Ukraine. Six years and more than 14,000 dead later, the fighting continues at a staccato rhythm, static along the trenchlines.

The trenches might also pose a serious obstacle to Russian tanks advancing east to west across Donbas. Tanks can cross narrow trenches on their own. For wider obstacles, Russian engineering companies use tracked and wheeled bridgelayers—MTU-20s, MTU-72s, TMM-3s, TMM-6s.

The gaps could slow down tanks. But it’s the missiles that would kill them. The Ukrainian army in recent years has devoted a significant portion of its modernization funds to equipping its front-line troops with thousands of locally-made Stugna-P, Corsar and Bar’er anti-tank missiles. The United States has chipped in, too, donating hundreds of Javelin missiles.

Few pictures of some sections

View media item 34936View media item 34935View media item 34934View media item 34933

 

[idrankyourbeer]

 

[Anewt]

it wasn’t the stated plan. The stated plan was to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine entirely, AND liberate Donbass region. They have failed miserably on the first two points.

You know they dropped HUNDREDS if not THOUSANDS of paratroopers behind enemy lines in Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mauripol right? They essentially sent these men straight to their deaths, there is NO EXCUSE for it other than they seriously thought they would be welcomed and Zelensky would immediately surrender or be killed.

I referenced the demilitarization and denazification in my post to mkess101. You'll see it a page or so back.

Denazification won't happen according to Zelensky. Donbas and Crimea are the only Russian goals in regards to land. Demilitarising I don't think will happen .

Ukraine won't join nato and will become " neutral " but have security assurances from nato countries..

 

[LangfordBarrow]

Yup but I won't consider Russia getting donbas and Crimea a big " fail " to me.

The no NATO is a done deal imo. The neutrality of Ukraine I think will happen. Denazification won't. Demilitarisation? I'd say unlikely as I don't consider a armed population " Demilitarised " heh

By getting Donbas and Crimea do you mean international recognition or just control of that area? It just seems unlikely to me that will happen or that sanctions will be lifted. Maybe the best win would be to gain enough territory to connect them but it seems unsustainable if they have to deal with even tougher sanctions.